Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 12 February 2026, 7:00 am
🌧 Rainfall (next 36 hours)
Expected totals will vary by region:
- North of the Scheldt: 3 to 17 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse line: 3 to 16 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse line: 9 to 34 l/m²
Today
Morning
Overcast with rain. Conditions will become more showery across Flanders and western Hainaut.
Wind: west to north-west, gusts 35-55 km/h.
Afternoon
Variable to mostly cloudy with showers.
Wind: west, gusts 30-50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures:
- Around 9°C along the coast
- 8 to 12°C inland
- 5 to 7°C in the High Ardennes
Evening
A new area of rain approaches from the south-west.
Wind: west, 30-50 km/h.
Overnight
Mostly wet with persistent rain.
Wind: west to south-west, 30-50 km/h.
Minimum temperatures:
- Around 7°C at the coast
- 6 to 7°C inland
- 3 to 6°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line
Tomorrow
Morning
Mostly rainy, except across southern Luxembourg, Namur and Hainaut provinces.
Wind: variable or south-westerly, 10-30 km/h.
Afternoon
Rain remains widespread, though drier intervals are possible in Hainaut, southern Namur and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: variable or north-easterly, 10-30 km/h.
Maximum temperatures:
- Around 8°C at the coast
- 9 to 11°C inland
- 5 to 7°C in the High Ardennes
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 12 February 2026
Belgium’s national thermal indicator will gradually decline over the coming days, reaching a minimum between -3 and -4°C during the weekend.
Maximum temperatures will range between -1 and +5°C, while minimum values will generally vary from +1 to -7°C. In the eastern valleys, significantly lower readings are possible, with temperatures locally dropping to between -8 and -14°C during the night from Saturday to Sunday.
Next week, and at least until 25 February, a slight rise in the thermal indicator is expected. It should generally fluctuate between -2 and +2°C (around the seasonal average).
On the less favourable days, highs will range from 1 to 7°C, with lows between -4 and +3°C. During less chilly periods, maximum temperatures could reach 3 to 9°C, while minimum values are expected to range between -1 and +5°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 12 February 2026
A broad low-pressure system, comprising several active centres with pressures ranging between 993 and 982 hPa, is currently covering a large part of Europe. In contrast, a relatively weak high-pressure area (1008 hPa) persists over Scandinavia.
Between these two systems, a cooler north-easterly flow will establish itself from Friday onwards. It will gradually influence our weather conditions by advecting colder air.
During the night from Saturday into Sunday, the passage of a ridge of high pressure will bring a brief cold spell. Thereafter, the flow will turn southerly ahead of a rain-and-snow disturbance associated with a deep low (977 hPa) moving eastwards northwest of the British Isles. This system will cross our regions towards the end of the weekend.
On Monday, it will be followed by a milder but unstable maritime flow, bringing scattered showers.
Another Atlantic depression is expected to reach southwest Ireland on Tuesday before moving towards our areas. It will generate further precipitation in an air mass with temperatures close to seasonal averages. Under these conditions, sleet or snowfall will be likely over the higher elevations of the Ardennes.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 12 February 2026
Weather outlook based on the BMCB Multimodel
(Operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
Saturday 14 February
Precipitation: 0–5 l/m²
Very cool conditions. Bright spells will spread from the west towards central areas, while the east remains mostly cloudy. Some snowfall is expected in the northern and eastern parts of Liège province.
Overnight, wintry showers are possible near the coast, with clearer spells elsewhere and local fog south of the Sambre and Meuse valleys. Widespread frost inland.
Sunday 15 February
Precipitation: 1–7 l/m²
Cold. Cloud increasing from the west with precipitation spreading eastwards: sleet or rain in lowland areas.
Southerly winds strengthening, gusts 40–60 km/h.
Overnight rain across the country, initially snow over the Ardennes high ground.
Monday 16 February
Precipitation: 5–20 l/m²
Turning milder. Variable to mostly cloudy with frequent showers. Sleet above 500–600 metres.
Moderate to brisk westerly winds, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Tuesday 17 February
Precipitation: 1–7 l/m²
Rather cool. Sunny intervals alternating with showers. Sleet above 300–400 metres and snow above 500–600 metres.
Brisk north-westerly to westerly winds with gusts 55–75 km/h.
Wednesday 18 February
Precipitation: 3–25 l/m²
Some early bright spells, becoming increasingly cloudy. Rather persistent rain overnight, with temporary sleet above 300 metres and snow over 500 metres.
Outlook: Predominantly unsettled and fairly cool, with frequent rainfall. Snowfall will mainly be confined to higher elevations, with the rain-snow limit fluctuating between 300 and 600 metres.
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Trend of sea-level pressure anomalies across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Update – 12 February 2026
The final third of February and the opening days of March are expected to be characterised by the establishment of a broad anticyclone stretching from the Norwegian Sea towards Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula and as far south as the Sahara. At the same time, low-pressure systems would generally track across eastern Europe.
Within this synoptic setup, our regions would lie along the eastern flank of the high-pressure cell, exposed to an unstable north-westerly flow. Showery precipitation, fuelled by moisture from the North Sea, would extend across the Benelux towards central Europe.
During the first ten days of March, numerical guidance suggests a gradual northward expansion of high pressure from the Atlantic towards Scandinavia. This evolution would favour the onset of a Scandinavian airflow — colder, yet more stable and drier — spreading towards Germany, the Benelux and France.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 6-2-26
Towards a milder start to spring, though uncertainties remain
From 23 February to 1 March: calmer and drier conditions ahead
A southerly flow may allow high pressure to extend towards Western Europe, bringing a period of generally calmer and drier weather. Some weak disturbances could still cross the country, but without significant impact. Supported by the southerly airflow, temperatures would rise to around 1 to 2°C above seasonal averages.
From 2 to 9 March: a continuation of settled weather?
The southerly flow is expected to persist into early March, maintaining largely settled conditions as low-pressure systems track further north across Europe. However, a possible shift of low pressure towards the British Isles cannot be ruled out, potentially introducing the first typical March showers. Despite these uncertainties, temperatures are likely to remain above average for the time of year.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)