Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 2 March 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
No precipitation is expected across the country. Rainfall totals will remain at zero north of the Scheldt, between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse valley, and south of it.
Situation and evolution
This morning, local fog patches are present, mainly in Luxembourg province. These will dissipate quickly, giving way to generally sunny conditions. Winds are from the south to south-east, with peak speeds of 20 to 40 km/h.
This afternoon will remain largely sunny. Some cumulus clouds may develop over the southern Ardennes and the Gaume region, without any impact. Winds will turn south-east to south, with peak speeds of 25 to 35 km/h. Maximum temperatures will reach around 17°C along the coast, 14 to 19°C inland, and 10 to 13°C in the Ardennes.
During the evening, local fog patches may reform, especially south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. Skies will remain mostly clear, although higher cloud cover may increase over West Flanders. Winds will ease, remaining from the south to south-east, with peak speeds of 10 to 25 km/h.
Tonight will be calm and often clear, with local fog formation, especially in southern areas and valleys. Winds will be light and variable, later becoming south-east to south. Minimum temperatures will fall to around 5°C along the coast, 5 to 8°C inland, 5 to 7°C south of the Sambre-Meuse valley, and locally between 4 and –4°C in some Ardennes valleys.
Outlook for tomorrow
The morning will begin with local fog patches, especially south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. These will clear to give very sunny conditions, although slightly more cloud cover is expected over West Flanders. Winds will be light and variable, with peak speeds of 5 to 25 km/h.
The afternoon will remain very sunny overall. Some increased cloudiness may occur locally over West Flanders, while a few cumulus clouds develop south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. Winds will turn north to north-east, with peak speeds of 10 to 30 km/h. Maximum temperatures will reach around 12°C along the coast, 16 to 19°C inland, and 12 to 15°C in the Ardennes.
Fog formation may redevelop during the evening, especially over Luxembourg province, under calm and stable conditions.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 2 March 2026
Over the coming days, the national thermal indicator is expected to remain mostly between +3 and +6, confirming the persistence of notably mild conditions for early March.
Under these circumstances, maximum temperatures will frequently reach 13 to 20 °C on the mildest days. More generally, they will range between 10 and 17 °C in more variable and temporarily less mild conditions, while remaining clearly above the seasonal averages for early March.
A more nuanced trend is expected to emerge from 7 March onwards. The thermal indicator would then gradually ease back towards values between +1 and +5.
Maximum temperatures would subsequently range mostly between 11 and 18 °C on still relatively mild days, and between 7 and 13 °C during cooler intervals. Despite this modest decline, temperatures would overall remain close to or slightly above seasonal norms.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 2 March 2026
A high-pressure cell, with a central pressure between 1030 and 1032 hPa, will move from England towards Denmark on Tuesday and Wednesday.
It will maintain a mild and dry continental air mass over our regions, ensuring largely stable and sunny weather conditions.
Subsequently, this high-pressure core will shift further east towards Eastern Europe, with pressure values remaining elevated, around 1028 to 1029 hPa.
This evolution will allow a cold front with rain to cross the country towards the end of the week. It will be followed by a temporarily cooler air mass advected from the eastern North Sea, resulting in a slight drop in temperatures.
However, the anticyclonic conditions will quickly re-establish. A new and stronger high-pressure centre (1033 to 1036 hPa) will move during the weekend from the North Sea towards Poland and Belarus. This pattern will place our regions once again in an easterly to south-easterly flow, advecting continental air that will again be very mild for the season, with temperatures expected to rise well above climatological normals.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 2 March 2026
Weather outlook for Belgium based on the BMCB multimodel
(Synthesis of operational models and ICON, AIFS, GFS and ECMWF ensembles)
The first half of March is expected to be dominated by air masses significantly milder than seasonal averages. Following a largely sunny period mid-week, a gradual transition toward more variable and eventually wetter conditions is likely from late week onward. Rainfall amounts will initially remain limited but may become more frequent toward mid-month.
Detailed forecast
Wednesday 4 March
Very mild and dry with abundant sunshine. Some early cloud possible near the Dutch border. No precipitation expected.
Thursday 5 March
Continued very mild and sunny conditions. During the following night, the risk of rain will gradually increase, especially over western regions.
Friday 6 March
Very mild with increasing cloud cover and a risk of occasional rain. Accumulations generally between 1 and 10 L/m².
Saturday 7 March
Mild with often cloudy skies and intermittent rain.
Sunday 8 March
Return to more stable and very mild conditions, with widespread sunshine and little or no rainfall.
Likely trend from 9 to 16 March
Monday 9 March
Very mild and mostly dry. Any precipitation will remain light and localized.
Tuesday 10 March
Mild and often dry, with little or no rainfall.
Wednesday 11 March
Mild and slightly more variable, with isolated light rain possible.
Thursday 12 March
Mild with increased cloudiness and occasional light showers.
Friday 13 March
Still mild but more unsettled, with intermittent rain becoming more likely.
Saturday 14 March
More unstable conditions, with more frequent rain periods and moderate accumulations.
Sunday 15 March
Continued mild and damp, with further spells of rain.
Monday 16 March
Persistence of mild and unsettled weather, with recurring rainfall.
Summary:
The period will begin with very mild and often sunny conditions, followed by a gradual transition toward more unsettled and wetter weather around mid-March, while temperatures remain generally above seasonal norms.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 2 March 2026
Likely trend for the second half of March
Current projections indicate the establishment of a vast high-pressure system extending initially from Scandinavia into eastern Europe. This pattern would promote a south-easterly airflow across our regions, bringing predominantly calm, dry and seasonally mild conditions.
At a later stage, this high-pressure area is expected to shift gradually westwards, extending from Scandinavia across the North Sea towards the British Isles. Such an evolution would favour a prevailing north-easterly flow over our areas, while maintaining stable and dry weather. Temperatures would generally remain above seasonal averages, confirming a persistently settled and mild end to March.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 27 February 2026
Week of 16–22 March: continued dry conditions, slightly cooler
The prevailing high-pressure system is expected to persist, maintaining calm and dry weather across the country. However, a gradual shift to a northerly airflow may lead to a slight decrease in temperatures. Even so, values are likely to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Under these stable conditions, marked daily temperature ranges are expected, with cool mornings followed by milder afternoons, a typical feature of March weather.
Week of 23–29 March: possibly more unsettled towards the end of the month
Forecast confidence decreases at this range. The dominant scenario still supports continued high-pressure influence, resulting in largely dry and stable conditions.
However, alternative scenarios suggest a weakening of the high-pressure system, allowing Atlantic disturbances to return towards the end of the month, bringing temporarily more unsettled weather.
In all cases, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals, confirming an already well-established spring-like trend.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)