Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 18 January 2026 | 7 a.m.
(BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROMEHD – ALADIN)
Precipitation – next 36 hours
No precipitation is expected across the country.
Conditions will remain entirely dry, from north of the Scheldt to south of the Sambre and Meuse.
Today
Morning
Mostly sunny weather, with only very local patches of low stratus cloud in the south of Luxembourg province.
Winds will be light and variable, occasionally easterly, at 5–25 km/h, reaching 30 km/h over the Ardennes.
Afternoon
Little change: a calm and bright weather pattern, at times lightly veiled.
Maximum temperatures around 10 °C along the coast, 8 to 11 °C inland, and close to 7 °C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Gradual development of fog, mainly over low-lying areas and Luxembourg province, while skies remain clear to slightly veiled elsewhere.
Tonight
Fog becomes more widespread over Flanders and south of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
Minimum temperatures near 3 °C at the coast, 1 to 3 °C inland, 0 to 1 °C south of the Sambre–Meuse, but dropping to -1 to -6 °C in Ardennes valleys.
Tomorrow
Morning
Persistent fog and low cloud over the Campine and areas south of the Sambre and Meuse; sunny or lightly veiled elsewhere.
Afternoon
Largely sunny conditions.
Highs around 9 °C at the coast, 5 to 10 °C inland, and 2 to 4 °C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Weather Update – 18 January 2026 | 10 a.m.
Over the coming days, Belgium’s national thermal index will fluctuate between +2 and -1. This will result in daytime temperatures initially ranging from 5 to 11°C, before easing back to values closer to 2 to 8°C.
Night-time minima will generally lie between -3 and +4°C, but markedly lower values are possible in more exposed areas, particularly south of the Sambre–Meuse axis. In valley bottoms, temperatures may locally drop to -4 to -8°C.
From next weekend onwards, a clear downward trend in the thermal index is expected. By the end of the month and into early February, values are likely to settle between -3 and -5, signalling a decidedly more wintry pattern. Daytime highs will struggle to exceed +4°C, frequently hovering around or even below freezing.
Night-time temperatures will often fall to between 0 and -7°C.
Under calm, clear anticyclonic conditions, nocturnal cooling may intensify further. In the southern valleys, south of the Sambre–Meuse axis, the mercury could plunge to -8 to -13°C, giving these nights a distinctly wintry character.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – January 17th, 2026 | 11 a.m.
The continental airflow currently affecting our region will gradually veer from the southeast to an easterly direction. It will remain dry and relatively mild during daytime, while nights turn colder, a subtle yet persistent signal of the upcoming evolution, at least through the first part of next week.
At a later stage, Atlantic low-pressure activity is expected to intensify. Large-scale systems with central pressures near 960 hPa will approach the European coasts. One such system is forecast to be near Ireland next Thursday, extending its frontal systems towards the British Isles and France, temporarily increasing instability over our region, mainly on Thursday and Friday.
Towards the following weekend, this depression will be forced southwards to southeastwards, sliding towards the Bay of Biscay under the influence of a strong anticyclone (1033–1034 hPa) anchored over western Russia.
This anticyclonic blocking pattern will then promote an advection of continental air, initially cooler and later progressively colder, originating directly from Eastern Europe.
Outlook for the end of the month
Atlantic depressions are likely to continue tracking from the central Atlantic towards France and the western Mediterranean, keeping our region under a rather cold easterly flow.
A disturbed frontal boundary may then develop between milder maritime air over France and significantly colder continental air over the Netherlands and Germany.
In this setup, precipitation could take on wintry forms, alternating between cold rain, sleet or snow, depending on the precise position of this atmospheric boundary, which remains delicate to forecast but potentially active.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 17 January 2026 | 12:00
Weather evolution summary
based on the BMCB multimodel
(operational models and ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
Persistent mildness before a more pronounced winter turn
Monday 19 January
The week begins mild and generally calm. Morning fog lingers over the Ardennes, while sunshine dominates elsewhere. The southern part of Luxembourg province remains under persistent low cloud. Overnight, fog redevelops mainly south of the Sambre–Meuse axis, with light frost locally.
Tuesday 20 January
Mild conditions continue. After a foggy start, especially in southern areas, the day turns largely sunny. During the night, fog spreads again across the Ardennes and Gaume, accompanied by patchy frost.
Wednesday 21 January
A return to seasonal temperatures. Stubborn fog persists in the Ardennes. Cloud increases over the western half of the country with a risk of light rain, while the east remains brighter. Overnight, fog forms again over the Campine and the Ardennes, with isolated frost.
Thursday 22 January
A markedly mild phase. Cloud thickens through the day, bringing scattered rain in the afternoon, mainly across the south-western regions.
Friday 23 January
Still mild but often very cloudy, with occasional light rain.
Likely trend
Saturday 24 January
Conditions turn cooler. Mostly cloudy but dry, with increasing sunny intervals later in the day.
Sunday 25 January
A colder, generally dry day.
Monday 26 January
Cold conditions become more established. Later on, light snowfall may occur.
Tuesday 27 January
Rather cold, with light snow over the Ardennes and snow or sleet possible in lowland areas.
Wednesday 28 January
Little change: continued cold weather with light snow in the Ardennes and snow or sleet elsewhere.
Thursday 29 January
More widespread precipitation. Snow in the Ardennes, sleet or wet snow in the lowlands.
Friday 30 January
A continued wintry pattern, with light snow or sleet at times.
Saturday 31 January
The month ends on a distinctly wintry note, with further light snowfall possible.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 17 January 2026
The ECMWF ensemble forecasts, supported by the analysis of mid-tropospheric anomalies, continue to outline a well-structured and persistent atmospheric pattern for late January and the first ten days of February.
On a synoptic scale, a broad low-pressure system is expected to extend from the nearby Atlantic across much of south-western Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, while a strong anticyclonic stronghold remains firmly established from northern Greenland through northern Scandinavia to north-western Russia, forming a robust and slow-moving block.
Caught between these two major atmospheric systems, our regions would remain exposed to a cold continental flow, advecting air masses from eastern Europe and the Balkans and ensuring a distinctly wintry feel.
Further to the south-west, an active zone of interaction is likely to develop between milder maritime air advancing over France and colder continental air dominating Germany. This boundary will largely determine the weather across south-western parts of the British Isles, France and the Alps, before gradually exerting its influence over our areas as well.
Towards the second ten-day period of February, the pattern would evolve: low-pressure systems would increasingly focus over the western Mediterranean, while a new anticyclonic cell emerges over the Atlantic. This high would tend to link up progressively with the anticyclone still firmly anchored over northern Scandinavia, favouring the establishment of a north to north-easterly, rather unsettled flow across the British Isles and the North Sea.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)