Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 15 January 2026 | 7 AM
BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rain will affect most parts of the country, with generally modest but locally higher totals:
- North of the Scheldt: 1–5 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse: 1–3 L/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 1–8 L/m²
Today: unsettled conditions with rain and sunny spells
This morning, skies remain mostly cloudy, with patches of light rain.
A southerly wind strengthens, with gusts of 25–45 km/h.
This afternoon, rainfall mainly affects West Flanders and the western part of East Flanders.
Elsewhere, bright spells develop across the two Brabant provinces, the Campine, and parts of western and northern Liège and Namur.
The southerly wind becomes brisk, with gusts reaching 30–50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures rise to around 10°C along the coast, 8–12°C inland, and 6–7°C in the High Ardennes.
During the evening, skies stay cloudy or slightly overcast, with occasional clear intervals, especially around Namur, while rain lingers in West Flanders.
Overnight, rain shifts from central to eastern areas, while wide clear spells emerge in West Flanders.
Winds veer from south to south-west.
Minimum temperatures range from 5°C on the coast, 7–8°C inland, to 5–8°C south of the Sambre–Meuse.
Tomorrow
In the morning, rain persists mainly over Belgian Luxembourg, while western Hainaut and Flanders enjoy bright conditions.
In the afternoon, a few residual showers remain across central and eastern regions, while the west stays mostly dry.
Maximum temperatures reach around 9°C at the coast, 8–12°C inland, and 5–7°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 15 January 2026 | 9 AM
The current spell of relative mildness is not yet ready to fade away. For another two to three days, the national thermal index will continue to hover around +5 to +6, allowing daytime highs between 6 and 13°C, depending on the region.
However, this mild interlude is set to draw to a close. From around 20 January, temperatures will begin a gradual downward trend, with the thermal index fluctuating between –1 and –2 until approximately 25 January. Daytime temperatures will then struggle to rise above 0 to 7°C, while night-time minima will often fall between +1 and –5°C. Under calm and clear conditions, valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line could experience sharper frosts, with temperatures dipping to –5 or –10°C.
After several days of hesitation, the BMCB multimodel guidance has once again converged towards a more pronounced cold spell towards the end of the month. The national index could drop to values between –2 and –7, corresponding to maximum temperatures ranging from +2 down to –5°C. Minimum temperatures are expected to fall between –2 and –9°C, and in calm, clear conditions may plunge to –10 or even –15°C in low-lying valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 15 January 2026 | 11 AM
Over the next 48 to 72 hours, our regions will remain under the influence of a notably mild southerly airflow for the time of year. This air mass, originating from the Alps and northern Italy, retains a degree of moisture, occasionally bringing weak and passing disturbances toward the end of the week.
However, this mild spell is not expected to last. Under the influence of a strong anticyclone, firmly established between Scandinavia and western Russia, with pressure values ranging from 1027 to 1035 hPa, the large-scale atmospheric circulation is set to change. From early next week onwards, the flow will gradually veer towards the southeast and then the east, becoming drier, but also decidedly less mild. The drop in temperatures will become more pronounced during the second half of the week, signalling a transition towards distinctly cooler, potentially cold conditions as the following weekend approaches.
Longer-term outlook through 29 January
In the longer term, high-pressure systems are expected to continue dominating northern Europe and the Arctic Ocean, while Atlantic depressions are likely to be deflected onto more southerly tracks, moving from the Bay of Biscay toward the Mediterranean basin.
Such a configuration would favour the sustained establishment of a continental easterly flow over our regions, bringing progressively colder air. At the same time, disturbances advancing from France could intermittently disrupt this pattern, opening the door to a more distinctly wintry weather regime, both in terms of temperatures and overall atmospheric conditions.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 15 January 2026 | 1 PM
Medium-range weather outlook
based on the BMCB multimodel
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
🌤 Calm conditions: mild at first, gradually turning more wintry
Saturday, 17 January
Conditions will be very mild for the time of year, with increasingly widespread sunny intervals, except over Flanders, where cloud cover will remain more dominant.
Overnight, fairly widespread fog is expected to develop, especially across Flanders, but locally elsewhere as well. Light rain remains possible in western Flanders.
Precipitation: 0 to 5 l/m².
Sunday, 18 January
Mild weather continues. The day may start locally with fog patches, before turning largely sunny.
During the following night, fog will redevelop, mainly over the Ardennes and Limburg.
Precipitation: 0 to 2 l/m².
Monday, 19 January
Conditions return closer to seasonal norms, with dry and bright weather. However, over the southern parts of the provinces of Liège and Luxembourg, low cloud and persistent fog may limit sunshine.
Overnight, mist and fog will form again, particularly across the Campine and the Ardennes.
Precipitation: 0 l/m².
Tuesday, 20 January
A generally sunny day, though low stratus cloud may still be present during the morning south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
The night will again be favourable for fog formation, especially across Flanders and the regions of Namur and Liège.
Precipitation: 0 l/m².
Wednesday, 21 January
Weather turns cooler, while remaining dry. Low cloud and stubborn fog will mainly affect lowland areas, maintaining a grey, wintry atmosphere.
Precipitation: 0 l/m².
🔍 Likely trend
From Thursday 22 to Sunday 25 January
Little change is expected: persistently dry and cool conditions, often dominated by low cloud and fog in lowland areas.
Precipitation: none.
From Monday 26 January onwards
A gradual change in weather pattern is indicated. Colder air will arrive, accompanied by light precipitation.
In the Ardennes, this may fall as snow or sleet, while over lowland areas it will more likely be light rain, occasionally mixed with sleet.
This cold and weakly disturbed pattern could persist until Thursday 29 January, with occasional very light snowfall.
Precipitation: 1 to 2 l/m² per day.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 14 January 2026
The latest ECMWF ensemble guidance, based on the analysis of mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns, outlines a markedly contrasted atmospheric setup toward the end of January. A broad low-pressure system is expected to extend from the nearby Atlantic across large parts of the Mediterranean basin, while at the same time a robust anticyclonic ridge builds from Greenland toward western Russia. Caught between these two dominant features, much of Europe would come under the influence of a cold continental flow, blowing from the east to northeast and advecting distinctly wintry air masses.
During the first half of February, this atmospheric configuration is likely to evolve gradually. The low-pressure zone would shift slightly northeastward, while a cold easterly flow continues to affect our regions. In parallel, a more active frontal boundary is expected to develop, impacting large areas of France, the southwest of the British Isles, and our regions as well. Within this transition zone, weather systems may become more pronounced as cold continental air interacts with milder influences.
Toward the end of the second and the beginning of the third decade of February, model signals increasingly point toward a strengthening of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia and eastern Europe. Such a pattern would reinforce the persistence of a dry continental regime, maintaining cold, stable, and largely anticyclonic conditions over our areas as winter gradually draws toward its close.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)