Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 14 January 2026 | 7 AM
BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rainfall will remain modest but fairly persistent across the entire country:
- North of the Scheldt: 2 to 5 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse: 2 to 4 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 2 to 7 l/m²
Today
This morning, the day will start locally with patchy fog over western and central areas.
In western Flanders and around Antwerp, bright spells will quickly develop, while elsewhere skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast.
Light but occasionally persistent rain will mainly affect eastern Hainaut, Namur, Liège and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: variable, turning south to southwest, gusts 5–25 km/h.
This afternoon, skies will remain largely overcast, despite a few local breaks in Wallonia.
Light rain will still occur in places, particularly in the Liège province.
Wind: south to southeast, gusts 10–25 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: 8°C along the coast, 9 to 10°C inland, 6 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
This evening, cloud cover remains dominant, with some clearer spells mainly along the coast, in Liège and Limburg.
Light rain will mainly affect the higher ground of Liège, western Hainaut and eastern Flanders.
Wind: southerly, gusts 15–35 km/h.
Tonight, skies will alternate between occasional clear intervals and cloudy spells, maintaining an unsettled feel.
Light rain will mainly affect Limburg and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: southerly, strengthening with gusts 25–40 km/h.
Minimum temperatures: 7°C along the coast, 8 to 10°C inland, 5 to 7°C south of the Sambre–Meuse.
Tomorrow
In the morning, a very cloudy to overcast sky will dominate.
A few brief sunny breaks may occur locally, but light rain will persist mainly over Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: southerly, gusts 20–40 km/h.
In the afternoon, the grey, overcast conditions will remain firmly in place.
A few isolated breaks may appear, while rain reaches coastal areas.
Wind: southerly, strengthening with gusts 30–50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: 9°C along the coast, 9 to 11°C inland, 6 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 14 January 2026 | 11 AM
Belgium will remain under the influence of relatively mild winter conditions through the weekend. The national thermal index is expected to fluctuate between +1 and +6, reflecting a winter that is so far measured and without extremes. In this setting, daytime highs will initially range between 6 and 12°C, before easing back on Sunday to more modest values of 4 to 10°C.
From next week onward, the weather pattern will gradually begin to change.
The thermal index will slip back into negative territory, generally hovering between –1 and –2, signalling a gradual yet persistent cooling trend.
As a result, daytime temperatures will fall to between 1 and 7°C, while nights and early mornings turn colder, with minimum values ranging from +3 to –4°C.
Under clear skies and calm conditions, the cold may become notably sharper in the valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse corridor, where temperatures could locally drop to between –5 and –10°C — a reminder that winter, discreet for now, has not yet delivered its final act.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 14 January 2026 | 12 PM
An exceptionally mild southerly airflow, originating from the Alps and the Mediterranean basin, continues to dominate our regions, wrapping the country in a notably gentle atmosphere for the time of year.
Within this setup, intermittent rain-bearing disturbances will cross the country, associated with a small low-pressure system expected to reach the vicinity of Brittany around midday on Thursday, with a central pressure near 998 hPa. By Friday, this depression will shift northwards towards the northern North Sea, deepening slightly to around 993 hPa, bringing occasional rainfall along its path.
Over the weekend and into the early part of next week, the general circulation will gradually veer towards the southeast and east. This change will introduce more stable continental air, resulting in drier conditions, while temperatures remain relatively mild for the season.
From midweek onwards, cooler yet still dry continental air, already established over Germany and northeastern France, will begin to spread into our regions. At the same time, Atlantic disturbances will remain largely confined to the British Isles and France, maintaining a clear separation between continental and oceanic influences.
Weather Trend | Period 24–28 January
A broad anticyclonic ridge will continue to extend from Greenland across the Arctic and into Scandinavia, maintaining a stronghold of atmospheric stability over higher latitudes. Meanwhile, depression activity remains firmly established further south.
Initially, low-pressure systems will be organised from the central Atlantic toward the western Mediterranean, tracking via southwestern France. Later on, this unsettled pattern is expected to expand, stretching from the nearby Atlantic southwest of Ireland across the entire Mediterranean basin, affecting France and eventually our regions as well.
Caught between these two dominant influences, a continental easterly to north-easterly flow is set to persist. This circulation will usher in gradually colder air, first across Germany, then spreading into our areas. Within this evolving setup, a zone of air-mass confrontation may develop, lifting northward from France toward Belgium, signalling a shift toward more contrasted and potentially markedly wintery conditions.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 14 January 2026 | 1 PM
Weather evolution – Summary analysis
based on the BMCB multi-model system
(operational models and ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
Persistent mildness ahead of a gradual return to more wintry conditions
Friday, 16 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 to 15 L/m²
Mild conditions clearly dominate. The sky will be variable with some bright intervals, though the morning remains wet across the Ardennes. During the following night, rain gradually spreads back across central and eastern parts of the country.
Saturday, 17 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 1 to 10 L/m²
Exceptionally mild air for the season persists. The morning is often rainy, while a few brighter spells may develop in the west during the afternoon, under generally cloudy skies elsewhere.
Overnight, areas of fog may become locally widespread, particularly across Flanders and the Antwerp region, but also in other areas.
Sunday, 18 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 to 1 L/m²
After some local morning fog, the weather turns variable with occasional sunny intervals. Cloud cover thickens again in the afternoon, bringing some rain to western Flanders.
The following night remains slightly unsettled, with light rain persisting in the west and fog returning, especially over western Flanders and south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Monday, 19 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 L/m²
Conditions gradually return to more seasonable levels. Widespread bright spells develop across most regions, except in the south of Luxembourg province, where cloud cover remains more persistent.
Fog is likely to form again overnight, mainly south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Tuesday, 20 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 L/m²
Dry and seasonable weather becomes well established. Despite low stratus clouds in the morning south of the Sambre–Meuse line, sunshine becomes more prominent during the day.
The following night will once again favour fog formation, especially across central and south-eastern areas.
Likely trend: increasingly wintry
Wednesday, 21 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 to 1 L/m²
Cool and dry weather under generally calm conditions.
Thursday, 22 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 0 to 3 L/m²
It remains cool with little precipitation. Light snowfall becomes possible across the Ardennes.
Friday, 23 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 1 to 2 L/m²
Cool conditions persist with very limited precipitation. The risk of light snowfall remains over the higher Ardennes.
Saturday, 24 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 3 to 5 L/m²
A return to seasonable conditions, occasionally damp. Precipitation may fall as snow or sleet in the Ardennes, and as sleet or rain in lowland areas.
Sunday, 25 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 10 to 15 L/m²
A more active weather phase is expected. In the Ardennes, snow or sleet may locally become moderate, while lowland areas see rain or sleet.
Monday, 26 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 4 to 10 L/m²
Seasonable winter conditions persist, with snow or sleet in the Ardennes and rain or sleet in low-lying areas.
Tuesday, 27 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 5 to 10 L/m²
The cool pattern continues, with wintry precipitation over higher ground and rain mixed with sleet at lower elevations.
Wednesday, 28 January
Rainfall over 24 hrs: 2 to 5 L/m²
Cool conditions remain, with further light snowfall or sleet possible in the Ardennes, while rain and sleet alternate across the lowlands.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 14 January 2026
The latest ECMWF ensemble guidance, based on the analysis of mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns, outlines a markedly contrasted atmospheric setup toward the end of January. A broad low-pressure system is expected to extend from the nearby Atlantic across large parts of the Mediterranean basin, while at the same time a robust anticyclonic ridge builds from Greenland toward western Russia. Caught between these two dominant features, much of Europe would come under the influence of a cold continental flow, blowing from the east to northeast and advecting distinctly wintry air masses.
During the first half of February, this atmospheric configuration is likely to evolve gradually. The low-pressure zone would shift slightly northeastward, while a cold easterly flow continues to affect our regions. In parallel, a more active frontal boundary is expected to develop, impacting large areas of France, the southwest of the British Isles, and our regions as well. Within this transition zone, weather systems may become more pronounced as cold continental air interacts with milder influences.
Toward the end of the second and the beginning of the third decade of February, model signals increasingly point toward a strengthening of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia and eastern Europe. Such a pattern would reinforce the persistence of a dry continental regime, maintaining cold, stable, and largely anticyclonic conditions over our areas as winter gradually draws toward its close.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 31-12-25
Weather Trends – Mid to Late January
15 to 25 January: mild and unsettled conditions
This period is expected to be influenced by a west to south-westerly airflow, remaining fairly unsettled. Between 19 and 25 January, a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems could affect the region, bringing recurrent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary quieter intervals.
Within this pattern, temperatures are likely to rise slightly above seasonal averages, though without any pronounced anomalies. Overall, this would result in a generally mild and humid winter regime, driven by Atlantic influences.
26 January to 1 February: potentially calmer and more seasonal
At this range, forecast confidence remains low, and these trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Based on the current ensemble mean of the models, a gradual easing of conditions cannot be ruled out. Weather patterns could then move closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures near average and a changeable sky, but without any significant disturbances.
Such a configuration would be conducive to the formation of fog and low cloud, particularly across low-lying areas and valleys, due to stable conditions in the lower atmospheric layers.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)