Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 11 February 2026, 07:00
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 8–13 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and Sambre-Meuse axis: 9–19 l/m²
- South of the Sambre-Meuse axis: 11–33 l/m²
Today
Morning
Overcast with persistent rain.
Westerly to south-westerly winds, gusts 25–40 km/h.
Afternoon
Mostly cloudy with ongoing rain. Rain will gradually ease over Flanders, western Hainaut and the Antwerp province, with some sunny intervals possible towards evening.
Westerly to south-westerly winds, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Highs
Around 10°C along the coast, 9–12°C inland, 7–8°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Temporary clear spells before cloud cover increases again around midnight.
Southerly to south-westerly winds, gusts 25–40 km/h.
Tonight
Another spell of widespread rain, lighter over Flanders.
South-easterly winds, gusts 15–35 km/h.
Lows
Around 7°C at the coast, 6–8°C inland, 4–7°C south of the Sambre-Meuse axis.
Tomorrow
Morning
Widespread rain across most regions. Sunny spells likely over Flanders, Antwerp and western Hainaut.
North-westerly to westerly winds, gusts 10–30 km/h.
Afternoon
Mostly cloudy to variable with showers, heavier across Wallonia.
South-westerly to westerly winds, gusts 25–40 km/h.
Highs
Around 9°C at the coast, 9–12°C inland, 4–5°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 11 February 2026
Mild conditions are currently reaching their peak across Belgium, with the national thermal indicator rising to between +6 and +7. Minimum temperatures range from 3 to 9 °C, while daytime highs vary regionally between 4 and 12 °C.
However, a change in the weather pattern is expected towards the end of the week. A marked cooling trend will gradually set in, pushing the thermal indicator down to –4 to –5 over the weekend. During the night from Saturday to Sunday, minimum temperatures will drop to between 0 and –6 °C, locally reaching –7 to –12 °C in the eastern valleys. Daytime conditions will remain cold, with highs between –2 and +5 °C.
Thereafter, a gradual rise in temperatures is anticipated. The thermal indicator is expected to fluctuate between 0 and +3 at least until 24 February.
Highs should reach 2 to 6 °C in the Ardennes and 6 to 11 °C elsewhere, while lows are forecast to range from –2 to +1 °C in the Ardennes and from +1 to +6 °C in other regions.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 10 February 2026
A deep low-pressure system, with a central pressure between 973 and 977 hPa, will move eastwards over the next 24 hours, crossing the British Isles, the southern North Sea and the northern Benelux. By around midday on Thursday, its centre is expected to be located over Germany.
A second low (987 hPa) will track from western France towards northern Italy on Friday and Saturday, deepening to around 983 hPa.
Initially, our regions will remain in mild but unsettled maritime air. From Friday evening and throughout the weekend, colder air advecting from southern Scandinavia will take hold. This will temporarily bring sleet or snow, along with widespread overnight frost.
Another low, around 979 hPa, is forecast to be positioned west of Scotland by midday Sunday before moving into the North Sea on Monday. Its associated frontal system will cross the country on Sunday, bringing rain preceded locally by sleet or snow. Milder and unstable maritime air will follow on Monday.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build during Tuesday, gradually stabilising the airmass.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 11 February 2026
Weather outlook summary
(based on the BMCB multi-model: operational runs and ICON, AIFS, GFS, ECMWF ensembles)
Friday 13 February
Overcast with rain, gradually turning to sleet from the north.
During the following night, sleet or snow showers are possible in the lowlands, with snowfall across the Ardennes.
Northeasterly winds strengthening, gusting 40–60 km/h.
Saturday 14 February
Rather cold. Variable cloud with a few wintry showers of rain, sleet or snow above 500 m.
Northwesterly winds remain fairly brisk with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Sunday 15 February
Still fairly cold. Increasing cloud, becoming overcast in the afternoon with snow or sleet, turning to rain during the day <
500 m.
Windy from the south with gusts of 60–80 km/h.
Rain everywhere in the evening and overnight, though clearer spells develop in the west after midnight.
Monday 16 February
Rather mild but very cloudy or changeable and unsettled, with showers and spells of rain (5–15 l/m²).
Winds veering westerly, remaining strong with gusts of 60–80 km/h.
Tuesday 17 February
Highly changeable with showers, mainly across the north-eastern half of the country. Sleet possible above 500 m.
Still quite windy from the west to northwest, gusting 50–70 km/h.
Likely trend
Wednesday 18 February
Mild but unsettled with showers or rain (12–27 l/m²).
Thursday 19 and Friday 20 February
Continued unsettled conditions with rain and showers (25–40 l/m² over 48 hours).
Renewed risk of sleet on Friday above 500 m.
Saturday 21 and Sunday 22 February
Persistently unsettled with further spells of rain or showers (20–40 l/m² over 48 hours).
Sleet remains possible above 500–600 m.
Monday 23 and Tuesday 24 February
Still unsettled with additional precipitation (15–25 l/m² over 48 hours).
Risk of sleet above 400–500 m and snow above 650 m.
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Trend of sea-level pressure anomalies across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Update – 9 February 2026
The end of February and the very first days of March could be characterised by a contrasting synoptic pattern across Europe. A strong high-pressure system is expected to be positioned over the northern Atlantic and northern parts of the European continent, while a low-pressure centre develops over northern Italy. Between these two systems, an active and moist frontal zone would extend from central France towards Belarus and Ukraine, crossing central Europe and the northern Balkans.
Under this setup, our regions would be influenced by a northerly to north-easterly flow, occasionally unstable, allowing for the passage of a few showers. Temperatures would generally remain close to seasonal averages.
Later in the first ten days of March, model guidance suggests a gradual expansion of the high-pressure area from the Atlantic towards southern Scandinavia and further towards the Black Sea. This evolution would favour the dominance of a drier, continental air flow over our regions, bringing more stable weather conditions.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 6-2-26
Towards a milder start to spring, though uncertainties remain
From 23 February to 1 March: calmer and drier conditions ahead
A southerly flow may allow high pressure to extend towards Western Europe, bringing a period of generally calmer and drier weather. Some weak disturbances could still cross the country, but without significant impact. Supported by the southerly airflow, temperatures would rise to around 1 to 2°C above seasonal averages.
From 2 to 9 March: a continuation of settled weather?
The southerly flow is expected to persist into early March, maintaining largely settled conditions as low-pressure systems track further north across Europe. However, a possible shift of low pressure towards the British Isles cannot be ruled out, potentially introducing the first typical March showers. Despite these uncertainties, temperatures are likely to remain above average for the time of year.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)