Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 5 March 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
No measurable precipitation is expected across the country.
Today
Very sunny conditions nationwide.
Morning: sunny.
SE wind, 20–40 km/h.
Afternoon: sunny.
SE wind, 20–35 km/h.
Highs: around 19°C at the coast, 18–22°C inland and 15–17°C in the Ardennes.
Evening: increasing high-level cloud from the south.
Wind variable or SE, 5–25 km/h.
Tonight
High cloud cover with possible fog patches in valleys south of the Sambre-Meuse line.
Wind variable to SE, 5–20 km/h.
Lows: around 6°C at the coast, 3–10°C inland, 5–9°C south of the axis and locally 6 to –5°C in valleys.
Tomorrow
Morning and afternoon: fairly sunny but veiled by high cloud.
Wind variable to SE, 5–20 km/h (afternoon 5–15 km/h).
Highs: around 19°C at the coast, 18–22°C inland and 17–18°C in the Ardennes.
Evening: continued high cloud cover.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 5 March 2026
Spring-like mildness is set to persist over the coming days. The national thermal index is expected to remain mostly between +6 and +7, confirming a marked positive anomaly for early March.
Maximum temperatures will reach remarkable levels for the time of year, generally ranging between 14 and 20 °C across the country.
A gradual change is nevertheless expected from 10 March onwards. The thermal index should then ease progressively from +5 towards near-neutral values (0).
This shift will translate into more moderate daytime temperatures: initially between 12 and 18 °C, then between 7 and 13 °C from mid-March. Values would therefore remain above average at first, before gradually returning to climatological norms.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 5 March 2026
A broad anticyclonic pattern, marked by several high-pressure centres across Europe, will continue to dominate our weather. This setup will maintain very mild continental air masses over our regions until early next week.
After the weekend, a change is possible. The likely development of a thermal low over southern Germany may introduce slightly more instability, bringing a few showers and somewhat lower temperatures, though without signalling a major shift in the overall weather regime.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 5 March 2026
Weather outlook summary
based on the BMCB multi-model (operational models and ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF ensembles)
An early spell of remarkably mild, almost spring-like weather is expected at first, followed by a gradual transition to more unsettled conditions.
7–8 March: Dry (0 mm/24h). After local morning fog, especially in the east and south, largely sunny with some high cloud. Fog patches may reform overnight, mainly in the south-east. Very mild temperatures.
9–11 March: Remaining very mild. Fairly sunny at first, but with an increasing risk of local showers (0–6 mm/24h). Frequent mist and fog overnight, particularly in the south and east.
12–19 March (trend):
12 March mostly dry.
13–14 March turning more unsettled with spells of rain.
From 15 March onwards, slightly less mild with frequent rainfall (3–9 mm/24h).
In summary, a notably mild and often sunny start will gradually give way to more unsettled and wetter conditions.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 5 March 2026
Trend for late March and early April
Medium-tropospheric guidance indicates a persistent high-pressure regime over northern Europe and the north-eastern Atlantic, while low-pressure systems are expected to remain focused mainly over the southern Mediterranean Basin and the Maghreb.
For our regions, this pattern implies a sustained influx of dry continental air. Temperatures are likely to remain generally above seasonal averages, with predominantly calm conditions and limited significant precipitation.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 27 February 2026
Week of 16–22 March: continued dry conditions, slightly cooler
The prevailing high-pressure system is expected to persist, maintaining calm and dry weather across the country. However, a gradual shift to a northerly airflow may lead to a slight decrease in temperatures. Even so, values are likely to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Under these stable conditions, marked daily temperature ranges are expected, with cool mornings followed by milder afternoons, a typical feature of March weather.
Week of 23–29 March: possibly more unsettled towards the end of the month
Forecast confidence decreases at this range. The dominant scenario still supports continued high-pressure influence, resulting in largely dry and stable conditions.
However, alternative scenarios suggest a weakening of the high-pressure system, allowing Atlantic disturbances to return towards the end of the month, bringing temporarily more unsettled weather.
In all cases, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals, confirming an already well-established spring-like trend.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)