As part of a new meteorological simulation exercise conducted for the experimental aircraft Climate Impulse ( www.climateimpulse.org ), which will undertake a virtual circumnavigation of the globe during the second half of March over several days, our operational resources will once again be temporarily mobilized.
Consequently, the forecast publications issued on the groups, pages, and websites of the Belgian Meteo Club Belge will be somewhat reduced during this period.
Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 11 March 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
Rainfall totals will vary across the country:
- North of the Scheldt: 3–8 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse corridor: 4–11 L/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse corridor: 7–18 L/m²
Today
Morning
Rainy conditions or rain developing gradually.
Wind from the south to southwest, with gusts of 30–50 km/h.
Afternoon
Rain will mainly affect Limburg, Liège, Namur, and Belgian Luxembourg. Elsewhere, the weather becomes more variable with temporary sunny intervals and scattered showers, except in West Flanders where conditions should remain mostly dry.
A risk of thunderstorms exists over the Campine region.
Wind turning southwest to west, with gusts of 35–45 km/h.
Maximum temperatures
Around 11°C at the coast, 9 to 14°C inland, but only 6 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Wide clear spells will develop, although a shower remains possible, especially south of the Sambre–Meuse corridor.
Wind southwest to west, 15–35 km/h.
Tonight
Partly clear skies, but cloudy to very cloudy south of the Sambre–Meuse corridor.
Wind from the southwest, 10–30 km/h.
Minimum temperatures
About 6°C at the coast, 4 to 6°C inland, and 0 to 4°C south of the Sambre–Meuse corridor.
Tomorrow
Morning
Wide clear spells, but cloudy to very cloudy south of the Sambre–Meuse corridor.
Wind south to southwest, 20–40 km/h.
Afternoon
Variable skies with sunny intervals and generally dry weather.
Wind southwest, with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Maximum temperatures
Around 14°C at the coast, 11 to 15°C inland, and 7 to 11°C in the Ardennes.
Evening
Some clear spells, but very cloudy over Flanders.
****************
National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 11 March 2026
The national thermal index is currently decreasing and is expected to reach a minimum of –1 to –2 during the coming weekend. Under these conditions, maximum temperatures should range between 5 and 12°C, while minimum temperatures will generally lie between –2 and +4°C, possibly lower in the valleys of eastern Belgium.
For the period 15–24 March, the index should fluctuate between –1 and +2. Daytime temperatures would therefore remain between 5 and 12°C during the coolest days, with still a risk of local frost inland, and most certainly south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
During the milder spells, maximum temperatures may reach 11 to 16°C, most likely between 18 and 23 March.
****************
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 11 March 2026
A fairly brisk south-westerly flow, still relatively mild for the season, is currently extending from the Bay of Biscay and Brittany toward our regions.
Within this pattern, a new rain front will cross Belgium from west to east on Friday. It will be followed during the weekend by the arrival of slightly cooler air. During the night from Sunday to Monday, new rain-bearing disturbances are expected to reach the country again.
From Tuesday onward, a high-pressure system of around 1024 hPa should establish itself between France and southern Germany, gradually stabilising the air mass and allowing the atmosphere to become drier.
For the remainder of next week, the weather pattern is expected to be dominated by a broad high-pressure area, with pressures between 1029 and 1032 hPa, extending from the British Isles toward the southern Baltic and later into Central and Eastern Europe.
Under these conditions, our regions should experience calm, stable and relatively mild weather for the season.
*****************
Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 11 March 2026
Summary of the expected weather evolution
(based on the BMCB multimodel: operational models and ensembles ICON, AIFS, GFS and ECMWF).
Friday 13 March
Widespread rainfall is expected with 10–30 L/m² over 24 hours. Conditions will remain rather mild. During the afternoon the weather should become drier over West Flanders.
Initially windy, with gusts of 60–80 km/h, gradually decreasing to 30–50 km/h from the south-west to west.
Saturday 14 March
Mostly dry weather (0–2 L/m²). The day will start cloudy in the east, while increasing sunny intervals will develop over the west, spreading eastward during the afternoon.
Sunday 15 March
A very cool day. Cloud cover will increase with rain arriving from the west (5–15 L/m²).
Quite windy from the south to south-west, with gusts 40–60 km/h.
Monday 16 March
Rather cool conditions with 2–15 L/m². The day will begin with rain over the Ardennes, followed by sunny spells spreading from west to east. New rain may occur during the following night.
Fairly windy from the west, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Tuesday 17 March
Mostly cloudy with some clear intervals, with possible precipitation totals of 10–30 L/m².
Outlook
18 March: mild and dry.
19 March: dry weather.
20 March: mild and generally dry (0–1 L/m²).
21 March: little or no rainfall (0–3 L/m²).
22 March: mild with occasional rain (2–5 L/m²).
23 March: mild with scattered rain at times (2–6 L/m²).
24 March: variable conditions with occasional light rain (3–6 L/m²).
25 March: cooler, with intermittent rain (3–6 L/m²).
*************
Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
ALL Maps
Update – 11 March 2026
Outlook for late March
Projections at the level of the mid-troposphere suggest the development of a broad anticyclonic area extending across much of northern, central and eastern Europe. At the same time, a low-pressure zone would persist over the entire Mediterranean basin and North Africa.
In such a synoptic pattern, our regions would be influenced by a continental airflow that is relatively mild and rather dry. This setup would favour generally stable weather, with often calm conditions and little to no precipitation.
Early April
At the beginning of April, the anticyclonic cell would tend to shift westward, extending from Scandinavia toward Iceland and the British Isles.
Such an evolution would induce a continental north-easterly flow over our regions. The air mass would remain generally dry, while temperatures are expected to stay above seasonal averages.
**************
SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 6 March 2026
Week of 23–29 March: dry weather and possibly cooler conditions
The currently favoured scenario in the models maintains a dominant high-pressure system over northern Europe. Under such a pattern, disturbances would remain scarce across our regions and the general atmospheric flow would stay rather weak.
This setup would favour mostly dry conditions. It could also lead to marked daily temperature ranges, with rather cool mornings under often clear skies followed by mild and distinctly spring-like afternoons.
Week of 30 March to 5 April: a last potentially damaging frost for crops?
During this transitional week between late March and early April — approaching the Easter period — weather conditions should remain generally calm and rather dry.
However, an intrusion of cooler air from the north cannot be ruled out. In such a scenario, attention will need to be paid to the risk of spring frost. Following a very mild end to winter and advanced vegetation growth, a return of frost could locally cause significant damage to crops.
At this stage, the reliability of this outlook remains limited and will require confirmation in the coming days.
***************
Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
**************
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)