Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 4 March 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours):
Dry across the entire country – 0 L/m² in all regions.
Today:
This morning: some local fog patches, possibly persistent near the coast. Becoming fairly sunny with cumulus developing over the Ardennes relief.
Light and variable winds 5–15 km/h.
This afternoon: sunny with more cumulus south of the Sambre–Meuse valley.
E to NE winds or variable 5–25 km/h.
Maximum temperatures:
±12°C at the coast, 18–20°C inland, 13–17°C in the Ardennes.
Tonight:
Clear skies with some fog forming, mainly in valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse valley.
Variable to SE winds 5–25 km/h, up to 25–35 km/h on higher Ardennes terrain.
Minimum temperatures: ±6°C coast, 3–8°C inland, locally 3 to -5°C in valleys.
Tomorrow:
Very sunny.
SE winds 15–35 km/h (15–25 km/h in the afternoon).
Highs: ±19°C coast, 18–22°C inland, 13–17°C Ardennes.
Evening: possible formation of valley fog.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 4 March 2026
Over the coming days, the national thermal index is expected to remain mostly between +6 and +7, confirming the persistence of markedly milder-than-average conditions for early March.
In this context, maximum temperatures will reach remarkable levels for the season, frequently ranging between 13 and 21 °C across the country.
From 8 March onwards, a gradual change is set to begin.
The thermal index is then projected to decline towards values between 0 and +4.
This shift will result in more moderate daytime temperatures: initially between 11 and 18 °C at the start of the period, then between 7 and 14 °C by mid-March.
Even so, these values are expected to remain slightly above climatological averages.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 3 March 2026
A robust high-pressure system, with central pressures between 1028 and 1032 hPa, will shift from Denmark towards the southern Baltic, then Poland, Belarus and Ukraine from Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.
This pattern will maintain a stable and very mild continental airflow from east to south-east across our regions. Conditions are expected to remain largely sunny and dry, with marked diurnal temperature contrasts.
Early next week, a change in regime may develop as a low-pressure system approaches the western British Isles, potentially bringing increasing instability and a few showers to our area.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 3 March 2026
Predominantly very mild and often sunny until 9 March
Thursday 5 March
Dry (0 L/m²). Very mild and largely sunny. Local fog patches developing overnight.
Friday 6 March
Dry again (0 L/m²) and very mild. Early morning fog, mainly in the east. Thereafter sunny with some high cloud, more noticeable over western and southern areas. Fog or low stratus may reform overnight.
Saturday 7 March
0–2 L/m². Very mild. Morning fog in the east. Mostly sunny, though cloudier during the morning across the north-west. Further low cloud or fog possible overnight.
Sunday 8 March
Dry (0 L/m²) and very mild. After local morning mist, largely sunny, with a chance of more cloud in the far west.
Monday 9 March
1–8 L/m². Still very mild. Sunny intervals but with an increasing risk of rain or showers, particularly in the west.
Probable outlook for 10–17 March
Very mild conditions are expected to persist, but with a gradual shift toward more unsettled weather and regular rain bands.
- Tuesday 10 March: 1–5 L/m², occasional light rain
- Wednesday 11 March: 1–5 L/m², intermittent rain
- Thursday 12 March: 3–6 L/m², light passing rain
- Friday 13 March: 4–9 L/m², rain at times
- Saturday 14 March: 7–11 L/m², more sustained rainfall
- Sunday 15 March: 6–9 L/m², unsettled
- Monday 16 March: 4–8 L/m², showers at times
- Tuesday 17 March: 4–8 L/m², mild with spells of rain
Summary: Early March will be dominated by stable, spring-like and very mild conditions. From around 9–10 March onward, a more Atlantic-driven and unsettled regime is likely to take hold, though without any significant cooling signal at this stage.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 2 March 2026
Likely trend for the second half of March
Current projections indicate the establishment of a vast high-pressure system extending initially from Scandinavia into eastern Europe. This pattern would promote a south-easterly airflow across our regions, bringing predominantly calm, dry and seasonally mild conditions.
At a later stage, this high-pressure area is expected to shift gradually westwards, extending from Scandinavia across the North Sea towards the British Isles. Such an evolution would favour a prevailing north-easterly flow over our areas, while maintaining stable and dry weather. Temperatures would generally remain above seasonal averages, confirming a persistently settled and mild end to March.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 27 February 2026
Week of 16–22 March: continued dry conditions, slightly cooler
The prevailing high-pressure system is expected to persist, maintaining calm and dry weather across the country. However, a gradual shift to a northerly airflow may lead to a slight decrease in temperatures. Even so, values are likely to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Under these stable conditions, marked daily temperature ranges are expected, with cool mornings followed by milder afternoons, a typical feature of March weather.
Week of 23–29 March: possibly more unsettled towards the end of the month
Forecast confidence decreases at this range. The dominant scenario still supports continued high-pressure influence, resulting in largely dry and stable conditions.
However, alternative scenarios suggest a weakening of the high-pressure system, allowing Atlantic disturbances to return towards the end of the month, bringing temporarily more unsettled weather.
In all cases, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals, confirming an already well-established spring-like trend.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)