Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 15 February 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 6–12 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and Sambre-Meuse axis: 7–14 l/m²
- South of the Sambre-Meuse axis: 9–29 l/m²
Today
Morning
Sunshine persists across the north of the country at first, but cloud cover gradually increases. Conditions become mostly cloudy to overcast across the western and southern regions
- Wind: southerly, gusts 15–35 km/h.
Afternoon
Becoming largely overcast again. Snow affecting most regions, except Limburg, Liège and western Belgian Luxembourg.
- Wind: south, gusts 35–55 km/h.
- Highs: around 8°C along the coast, 1–5°C inland, –2 to 0°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Snow gradually turning to rain across much of the country, though snow persists in Limburg, Liège and Belgian Luxembourg.
- Wind: south, gusts 40–60 km/h.
Tonight
Becoming more variable with rain showers, except across southern Flanders and Hainaut. In higher elevations of Liège and Luxembourg, sleet remains possible.
- Wind: southwest to west, gusts 30–50 km/h.
- Lows: around 1°C at the coast, 1–4°C inland, –2 to +1°C in the High Ardennes.
Tomorrow
Morning
Variable cloud in the western half of the country; elsewhere still mostly cloudy with showers, especially across Antwerp, the Campine and Flemish Brabant. Rain over eastern Hainaut, Namur, southern Liège and Belgian Luxembourg, with sleet above 600 m.
- Wind: southwest to west, gusts 30–50 km/h.
Afternoon
Highly changeable with bright spells at times but further showers inland. In the Ardennes, precipitation remains sleety above 600 m.
During the evening, snowfall temporarily spreads across the whole country before turning back to rain below 300 m.
- Wind: west, gusts 35–55 km/h.
- Highs: around 8°C at the coast, 5–9°C inland, 2–4°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 15 February 2026
Belgium’s national thermal index will temporarily rise on Monday to around +1 to +2. Minimum temperatures are expected between –1 and +5°C, with maxima ranging from +3 to +9°C.
A renewed decline is then anticipated. Around 19–20 February, the index is forecast to drop to approximately –3. Minimum temperatures would range between –6 and +1°C, and maxima between 0 and +7°C, indicating a cooler spell, particularly at night.
However, the latest projections from the BMCB multi-model system point to a marked mild spell around 22–23 February. The index could climb to about +5, corresponding to minima of 4 to 10°C and maxima between 7 and 13°C.
Outlook for the end of the month
For the final ten days of February, the most likely scenario suggests a gradual return of the index to values between +4 and 0. Minimum temperatures would slowly settle between 0 and 6°C, with maxima ranging from 5 to 11°C, reflecting generally moderate conditions for the season.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 14 February 2026
An Atlantic disturbance will move eastward on Sunday across the British Isles and France before reaching our country. It will be followed by a surge of milder maritime air.
In Belgium, precipitation will initially fall as snow, locally moderate at times, before gradually turning to rain and drizzle as the warmer air spreads into the lower layers of the atmosphere.
The system is driven by a 989 hPa depression, expected to centre over the North Sea on Monday. It will advect unstable maritime air, producing frequent showers. On Tuesday, the air mass will turn somewhat cooler, though conditions remain unsettled.
On Wednesday, a new low-pressure area (988 hPa) is forecast near the British Isles and west of the Bay of Biscay. Its main centre (994 hPa) will move towards our regions on Thursday, bringing locally significant precipitation totals: rain in lowland areas, sleet or snow depending on altitude and thermal structure.
By Friday, the depression (around 999 hPa) will shift towards Central Europe and the northern Balkans, followed by colder air flowing in from northern Germany and Denmark.
Further Atlantic disturbances are expected next weekend, bringing additional rainfall ahead of another influx of milder air.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 14 February 2026
Weather outlook based on the BMCB Multi-Model
(Operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
Monday 16 February
Rather cool with variable to mostly cloudy skies. Frequent showers will bring 5 to 20 l/m² in 24 hours. Above 500–600 m, sleet is expected.
A moderate to fairly strong westerly wind with gusts of 45–65 km/h.
During the following night, showers persist across the north-eastern half of the country, with sleet above 500 m and snow above 650 m.
Tuesday 17 February
Still rather cool and unsettled. 2 to 20 l/m² expected. Rain at lower levels, sleet above 400–500 m and snow above 600–650 m.
Westerly to north-westerly winds with gusts of 40–60 km/h.
Wednesday 18 February
Cool conditions. Increasing cloud cover with 5 to 25 l/m².
By evening, easterly winds strengthen with gusts of 40–60 km/h.
Thursday 19 February
Very cool and markedly unsettled. Significant precipitation totals of 15 to 50 l/m². Besides rain, temporary sleet or snowfall is possible nationwide.
Strong easterly to north-easterly winds with gusts of 55–75 km/h.
Friday 20 February
Rather cold but turning drier. Only 0 to 4 l/m² with increasing sunny spells.
Probable trend
From 21 to 28 February:
Gradually milder but frequently unsettled. Recurrent spells of rain are expected. Sleet risk mainly confined to elevations above 600–650 m. Daily totals generally range between 2 and 20 l/m².
Overall:
A cool and unsettled week with a notably wet and windy episode around 19 February, followed by a transition to milder yet often damp conditions towards the end of the month.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 14 February 2026
The final third of February and the opening days of March are expected to be shaped by a pronounced blocking pattern. A broad ridge of high pressure would extend from Iceland to the Canary Islands, while a low-pressure system remains established over eastern Europe.
Within this synoptic setup, the Benelux region would lie along the eastern flank of the high, exposed to an unstable and noticeably cooler north-westerly flow. Showery precipitation, fuelled by moisture from the North Sea, would move southeastwards across the region.
During the first third of March, numerical guidance suggests a gradual extension of high pressure from the Atlantic towards northern Scandinavia and Russia. At the same time, an active low-pressure zone would stretch from southern Iberia to the northern Balkans, crossing the Alpine region.
Such an evolution would favour the establishment of a Scandinavian air mass: still cool, yet more stable and drier, bringing calmer and progressively brighter conditions to Germany and the Benelux.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 February 2026
Week of 2–8 March: a return to calmer and drier conditions
A strengthening high-pressure system is expected to extend over a large part of Europe during this period. This pattern would favour stable, dry and significantly less unsettled weather, away from active frontal systems.
In this context, local morning mist or fog may develop, followed by gradual clearing during the day under the influence of sunshine. Overall, conditions would become more settled, providing favourable weather for outdoor activities.
Week of 9–15 March: likely continuation of calm weather, with increasing mildness?
The dominant scenario maintains high-pressure influence over Western Europe. Weather conditions would remain largely calm, although low-pressure systems may develop over the nearby Atlantic.
On the fringes of these systems, cloud cover could occasionally increase, without fundamentally altering the generally stable trend. In addition, the establishment of a southerly flow towards the end of the period would support a gradual rise in temperatures, bringing a milder and early spring-like feel.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)