Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 14 January 2026 | 7 AM
BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rainfall will remain modest but fairly persistent across the entire country:
- North of the Scheldt: 2 to 5 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse: 2 to 4 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 2 to 7 l/m²
Today
This morning, the day will start locally with patchy fog over western and central areas.
In western Flanders and around Antwerp, bright spells will quickly develop, while elsewhere skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast.
Light but occasionally persistent rain will mainly affect eastern Hainaut, Namur, Liège and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: variable, turning south to southwest, gusts 5–25 km/h.
This afternoon, skies will remain largely overcast, despite a few local breaks in Wallonia.
Light rain will still occur in places, particularly in the Liège province.
Wind: south to southeast, gusts 10–25 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: 8°C along the coast, 9 to 10°C inland, 6 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
This evening, cloud cover remains dominant, with some clearer spells mainly along the coast, in Liège and Limburg.
Light rain will mainly affect the higher ground of Liège, western Hainaut and eastern Flanders.
Wind: southerly, gusts 15–35 km/h.
Tonight, skies will alternate between occasional clear intervals and cloudy spells, maintaining an unsettled feel.
Light rain will mainly affect Limburg and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: southerly, strengthening with gusts 25–40 km/h.
Minimum temperatures: 7°C along the coast, 8 to 10°C inland, 5 to 7°C south of the Sambre–Meuse.
Tomorrow
In the morning, a very cloudy to overcast sky will dominate.
A few brief sunny breaks may occur locally, but light rain will persist mainly over Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: southerly, gusts 20–40 km/h.
In the afternoon, the grey, overcast conditions will remain firmly in place.
A few isolated breaks may appear, while rain reaches coastal areas.
Wind: southerly, strengthening with gusts 30–50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: 9°C along the coast, 9 to 11°C inland, 6 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 13 January 2026 | 11 AM
Over the next three days, the national thermal index will remain within a phase of relatively mild winter conditions, fluctuating between +4 and +6. In this setting, daytime highs will range from 3 to 8°C across the Ardennes, while the lowland areas enjoy milder values between 8 and 13°C.
From 17 January onwards, however, a notable shift is expected. Temperatures will begin a gradual decline, pushing the thermal index into negative territory during the following week, with values fluctuating between -1 and -4. This will translate into more wintry daytime temperatures, ranging from -2 to +2°C in the Ardennes and from +3 to 7°C in the lowlands.
The nights will also turn colder once again: minimum temperatures will generally fall between -5 and -2°C in the Ardennes — locally even lower in valleys under clear skies and light winds — while the lowlands can expect values between -2 and +3°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 13 January 2026 | 12 PM
A particularly mild southerly airflow, originating from the Pyrenees and the Mediterranean Basin, continues to dominate weather conditions across France and our regions, maintaining a seasonably mild atmosphere.
A few rain-bearing disturbances will punctuate this pattern, though without excess. Rainfall totals will remain limited and generally light, insufficient to disrupt the overall calm nature of this period.
Over the course of the weekend, however, the large-scale atmospheric dynamics will begin to evolve. Low-pressure activity, currently located near Ireland (≈ 993 hPa), is expected to drift gradually towards the Bay of Biscay (≈ 1006 hPa). At the same time, a powerful continental high-pressure system, firmly anchored over Russia (1045 to 1047 hPa), will shift slightly westward. This configuration will slowly rotate the flow, first towards the southeast and then to the east, affecting northeastern France, Germany and our regions.
Within this setup, drier but noticeably cooler continental air will start advancing westwards. It is expected to reach our areas next week, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms, and in some places slightly below average.
Outlook for the period 21–27 January
At longer range, forecast models suggest the establishment of a broad anticyclonic zone stretching between Scandinavia and Greenland. As a result, low-pressure systems would be forced to track from the Bay of Biscay towards the western Mediterranean.
Such a configuration would favour the persistence of a continental airflow, gradually turning colder across our regions. A zone of air-mass confrontation may also develop, leading to more unsettled conditions, primarily affecting France, while drier weather prevails further north.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 13 January 2026 – 1 PM
Analysis of the weather evolution based on the BMCB multi-model
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
Prolonged mild spell before a gradual shift toward more wintry conditions
Thursday, 15 January
An unseasonably mild air mass will dominate. Local sunny breaks are expected in the east, while elsewhere the sky remains largely overcast. Light to moderate rain will mainly affect western Flanders and the north of eastern Flanders.
During the night, rainfall spreads to both Flanders, Antwerp, the two Brabants and Hainaut.
A southerly wind, occasionally brisk (30–50 km/h), veers south-westerly, with gusts reaching 50–70 km/h.
Rainfall total: 1–5 L/m².
Friday, 16 January
The mild conditions intensify further. Residual light rain lingers mainly south of the Sambre–Meuse line and over Limburg, while elsewhere a veiled sky with bright intervals prevails.
Overnight, light showers alternate with clearer spells, particularly in Luxembourg province.
Rainfall total: 0–10 L/m².
Saturday, 17 January
Both Flanders and western Hainaut remain exposed to a few showers, while sunshine becomes increasingly dominant elsewhere.
During the night, high humidity will favour fog formation, locally dense.
Rainfall total: 0–10 L/m².
Sunday, 18 January
A return to more seasonable conditions. The day begins under widespread fog and low stratus, followed by a marked improvement with plenty of sunshine.
Fog is likely to reform overnight.
No precipitation expected.
Monday, 19 January
A cooler air mass settles in. After the dissipation of morning fog and low cloud, the day turns largely sunny.
No precipitation.
Likely trend – latter part of the period
From Tuesday 20 to Friday 23 January
A stable high-pressure pattern brings cool and dry weather. After possible morning mist, sunshine often prevails.
Rainfall remains virtually absent.
Saturday, 24 January
Still cool, with little or no precipitation.
Rainfall total: 0–3 L/m².
Sunday 25 and Monday 26 January
Conditions turn decidedly more wintry. A few snowflakes are possible over the Ardennes, while sleet may occur in lowland areas, without significant accumulation at this stage.
Rainfall total: 1–3 L/m².
Wednesday, 14 January (reminder)
Under cooler conditions, light to moderate precipitation affects the country, with a risk of light snowfall in the Ardennes and sleet elsewhere.
Rainfall total: 3–5 L/m².
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 14 January 2026
The latest ECMWF ensemble guidance, based on the analysis of mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns, outlines a markedly contrasted atmospheric setup toward the end of January. A broad low-pressure system is expected to extend from the nearby Atlantic across large parts of the Mediterranean basin, while at the same time a robust anticyclonic ridge builds from Greenland toward western Russia. Caught between these two dominant features, much of Europe would come under the influence of a cold continental flow, blowing from the east to northeast and advecting distinctly wintry air masses.
During the first half of February, this atmospheric configuration is likely to evolve gradually. The low-pressure zone would shift slightly northeastward, while a cold easterly flow continues to affect our regions. In parallel, a more active frontal boundary is expected to develop, impacting large areas of France, the southwest of the British Isles, and our regions as well. Within this transition zone, weather systems may become more pronounced as cold continental air interacts with milder influences.
Toward the end of the second and the beginning of the third decade of February, model signals increasingly point toward a strengthening of high-pressure systems over Scandinavia and eastern Europe. Such a pattern would reinforce the persistence of a dry continental regime, maintaining cold, stable, and largely anticyclonic conditions over our areas as winter gradually draws toward its close.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 31-12-25
Weather Trends – Mid to Late January
15 to 25 January: mild and unsettled conditions
This period is expected to be influenced by a west to south-westerly airflow, remaining fairly unsettled. Between 19 and 25 January, a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems could affect the region, bringing recurrent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary quieter intervals.
Within this pattern, temperatures are likely to rise slightly above seasonal averages, though without any pronounced anomalies. Overall, this would result in a generally mild and humid winter regime, driven by Atlantic influences.
26 January to 1 February: potentially calmer and more seasonal
At this range, forecast confidence remains low, and these trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Based on the current ensemble mean of the models, a gradual easing of conditions cannot be ruled out. Weather patterns could then move closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures near average and a changeable sky, but without any significant disturbances.
Such a configuration would be conducive to the formation of fog and low cloud, particularly across low-lying areas and valleys, due to stable conditions in the lower atmospheric layers.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)