Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 21 January 2026 | 7 am
Analysis based on the BMCB multimodel (ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
🌧 Expected precipitation – next 36 hours
Rainfall amounts will remain generally limited:
– North of the Scheldt: 0 to 2 l/m²
– Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 0 to 2 l/m²
– South of the Sambre–Meuse: 0 to 0.5 l/m²
Today: a changeable day under continental influence
This morning, some fog patches will still linger over the south of Luxembourg province. Rain affects Flanders, the Antwerp region, western Brabant and western Hainaut. Elsewhere, skies remain mostly to heavily clouded, with brighter spells towards the far east of Liège province.
Winds blow from the south to southeast, with gusts of 15 to 35 km/h, locally up to 40 km/h over eastern high ground.
This afternoon, sunshine will become widespread. However, high-level cloud will continue to veil the sky over Hainaut, western Brabant and Flanders.
Southeasterly winds strengthen further, with gusts reaching 45 km/h.
Maximum temperatures will range from around 8°C along the coast, 6 to 11°C inland, and only 1 to 5°C over the High Ardennes.
This evening, skies will clear almost everywhere, except in western Flanders where some cloud will persist.
An easterly to southeasterly breeze remains noticeable.
Tonight, conditions turn calm and mostly clear.
Minimum temperatures will fall to around 3°C at the coast, 1 to 5°C inland, –1 to –4°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line, and as low as –6°C in sheltered valleys.
Tomorrow
Morning: very sunny at first, with increasing cloud over southern Flanders and Hainaut.
Afternoon: sunshine continues over the Campine, Liège region and northern Belgian Luxembourg, while cloud thickens elsewhere.
Maximum temperatures: about 8°C along the coast, 8 to 11°C inland, and 3 to 7°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 21 January 2026 | 9 a.m.
Until Saturday 24 January, Belgium’s national thermal index will remain positive, hovering around +3. This relatively mild spell will result in daytime temperatures ranging from 4 to 11 °C, while nighttime minima will generally lie between 0 and 7 °C. An exception will be the Ardennes valleys, where temperatures may drop more sharply, with minima locally between –5 and –1 °C.
From Sunday evening onwards, however, a marked change is expected. The thermal index is forecast to fall into negative territory, reaching around –4 on Monday 26 January. This shift will usher in a distinctly wintry episode, with daytime highs limited to –3 to +3 °C and overnight lows ranging from –8 to +1 °C across the country.
This cold spell is not expected to last long. By the middle of the following week, the thermal index should turn positive again, fluctuating between +1 and +4. Daytime temperatures would then rise to around 7 to 10 °C in lowland areas, while the Ardennes would retain a cooler feel, with values between 2 and 5 °C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Update – 21 January 2026 | 11 a.m.
Short- and medium-term synoptic outlook
Over the next 72 hours, our region will remain under the influence of relatively mild continental air, originating mainly from the Alps and northern Italy. This air mass will continue to promote generally calm and stable weather, with no significant extremes.
As the weekend approaches, however, a gradual change in the large-scale pattern is expected. A depression of around 991 hPa, deepening from the Gulf of Lion towards the northern Adriatic, will modify the prevailing circulation. The southerly to south-easterly flow over our area will veer more easterly, allowing cooler — and at times rather cold — continental air to spread in from Sunday onwards. Early next week, this air mass is expected to remain largely dry and stable.
This quieter phase may be short-lived. From Tuesday, disturbances associated with a deep Atlantic low of around 956 hPa will reach the British Isles and France, before later affecting our regions as well. Precipitation may initially fall as sleet or snow, before gradually turning to rain as milder oceanic air pushes in.
Towards the end of the week, further rain-bearing systems are forecast across western Europe, accompanied by air that remains fairly mild for the time of year.
Trend for early February
Looking further ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to dominate the nearby Atlantic and south-western Europe. In this setup, the flow over our regions would most often come from the south to south-east, maintaining a supply of occasionally unsettled but generally mild air for the season. Early February therefore appears more likely to be characterised by unsettled conditions rather than a sustained return to winter weather.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Overview of the weather evolution
based on the BMCB multimodel
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
📅 Friday 23 January
Precipitation (24 h): 0 l/m²
Mild conditions continue to dominate. The sky is often mostly to completely cloudy, though brighter spells are expected mainly in the northeast of the country. During the evening and overnight, a few light showers may occur locally.
📅 Saturday 24 January
Precipitation (24 h): 0 to 10 l/m²
The weather remains mild but gradually turns wetter. Under a very cloudy sky, rain spreads into Limburg and the eastern parts of the provinces of Liège and Luxembourg. At higher elevations, precipitation may temporarily turn to sleet or snow above 500–600 metres. During the following night, widespread fog is expected across inland areas.
📅 Sunday 25 January
Precipitation (24 h): 0 l/m²
A cooler pattern becomes established. Low cloud and locally persistent fog dominate, especially inland. Some brighter intervals may develop during the afternoon. Fog is likely to redevelop widely during the following night, particularly across central and eastern regions.
📅 Monday 26 January
Precipitation (24 h): 0 l/m²
Colder conditions set in. The sky remains largely overcast, with low cloud and stubborn fog in places, allowing little or no sunshine.
📅 Tuesday 27 January
Precipitation (24 h): 5 to 10 l/m²
Weather conditions turn more unsettled. Cloud cover increases through the day, followed by precipitation that may initially fall as snow or sleet. Winds strengthen from the southeast, with gusts reaching 40–60 km/h.
Likely trend
📅 Wednesday 28 January
Precipitation (24 h): 2 to 10 l/m²
Seasonal conditions prevail. Snow or sleet is expected in the High Ardennes, while rain dominates in low-lying areas.
📅 Thursday 29 January
Precipitation (24 h): 2 to 3 l/m²
Little change. Occasional snow or sleet in the Ardennes, with light rain elsewhere.
📅 Friday 30 January
Precipitation (24 h): 4 to 20 l/m²
A renewed mild spell brings at times significant precipitation. Rain dominates in the lowlands, while sleet remains possible in the High Ardennes.
📅 Saturday 31 January
Precipitation (24 h): 7 to 12 l/m²
Very mild weather with moderate rain or showers across the country.
📅 Sunday 1 February
Precipitation (24 h): 2 to 3 l/m²
Continued mild conditions with occasional rain.
📅 Monday 2 February
Precipitation (24 h): 2 to 10 l/m²
Mild air remains in place. Light rain or sleet may occur in the High Ardennes, with rain elsewhere.
📅 Tuesday 3 February
Precipitation (24 h): 1 to 2 l/m²
Mild and generally quiet conditions, with little precipitation.
📅 Thursday 22 January
Precipitation (24 h): 4 to 8 l/m²
Seasonal weather, with rain in the lowlands and locally rain or sleet over the Ardennes.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 21 January 2026
The ECMWF ensemble forecasts, viewed through the lens of mid-tropospheric anomalies, outline a vast atmospheric chessboard for the first ten days of February, dominated by sharp contrasts. On one side, a low-pressure system would extend its influence from the Atlantic across France and the Iberian Peninsula. On the other, powerful high-pressure systems would remain firmly anchored from Greenland through Scandinavia to southern Russia and the Middle East, forming a strong and persistent barrier.
Caught between these two opposing blocks, our regions would lie along a climatic fault line. A continental easterly flow, cool to at times markedly cold, would intermittently assert itself. Within this configuration, a disturbed frontal conflict zone would tend to position itself close to, or directly over, our regions, clearly delineating the boundary between air masses of contrasting characteristics.
During the second decade of February, this low-pressure system and its associated frontal boundary could gradually shift toward Scandinavia on the one hand and toward the north-western Balkans on the other. Such a displacement would favour increasingly unsettled, at times unstable, weather conditions across our regions. While progressively milder Atlantic air would spread into France, cooler to fairly cold conditions would continue to dominate across the Netherlands, northern Germany and England.
Finally, the latter part of February could herald a change in pattern. Under the combined influence of enhanced low-pressure activity over the nearby Atlantic and the establishment of a broad high-pressure area over the southern Balkans and the eastern Mediterranean basin, milder air masses from France and the Mediterranean would increasingly encroach upon our regions. The winter interlude would then gradually draw to a close, giving way to a more temperate regime.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)