Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Belgium Weather – Monday 2 February 2026 (7 am)
Based on the BMCB multi-model output (ICON-D2, AROME-HD, ALADIN)
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 3–5 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 3–6 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse axis: 3–9 l/m²
Today
Morning: Mostly cloudy with some local bright spells.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 15–35 km/h
Afternoon: Brighter intervals, but cloudier over eastern Liège province and Belgian Luxembourg.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 20–30 km/h
🌡 Highs: around 8°C along the coast, 5–10°C inland, 3–4°C in the High Ardennes
Evening: Still some clear spells, but very cloudy south of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
🌬 Wind: easterly, gusts 25–45 km/h
Night: Very cloudy, with some light rain over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
🌬 Wind: easterly, gusts 20–40 km/h
🌡 Lows: around 2°C on the coast, 1–4°C inland, down to -1°C south of the Sambre–Meuse axis
Tomorrow
Morning: Rain gradually spreading to all regions.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 30–50 km/h
Afternoon: Last spells of rain in Limburg and near the French border; elsewhere mostly very cloudy.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 25–45 km/h
🌡 Highs: around 5°C on the coast, 5–11°C inland, about 4°C in the High Ardennes
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 2 February 2026 | 09:00
Temperature forecasts for Belgium remain highly uncertain from 8 February onwards. The national thermal indicator, based on the BMCB multi-model and calculated from the average of the global models (GFS, ECMWF, AIFS) and their ensembles, continues to show strong volatility.
This is due to Belgium’s sensitive position at the boundary between cold continental air circulating to the north of the country and very mild air persisting over France.
In this unstable atmospheric setup, the latest model runs this morning have revised the thermal index upward towards the end of the forecast period.
This contrasts clearly with the scenarios suggested by the ensembles of the European ECMWF model, which point to a more moderate evolution.
In practical terms, the national thermal indicator would fluctuate overall between –1 and +5 °C over the next two weeks.
During the mildest phases, maximum temperatures could reach 5 to 12 °C, with minimum temperatures ranging from 1 to 8 °C.
Conversely, during cooler episodes, maximum temperatures are not expected to fall below 0 to 7 °C, while minimum temperatures would range between –2 and +4 °C.
Upcoming model runs will therefore need to be monitored closely to determine whether this trend is confirmed or whether a downward revision becomes necessary for the period between 8 and 16 February.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 01/02/2026 | 11 a.m.
A band of rain, associated with a deep Atlantic low of 977 hPa located west of Ireland, will cross the country on Tuesday. On Wednesday, it will be followed by a surge of very mild air originating from the Alps and the north-western Balkans, leading to a noticeable rise in temperatures.
Over the following days, including the weekend, low-pressure systems will remain positioned to the south-west of Ireland. This setup will continue to feed mild to very mild southerly air towards our regions, with periods of unsettled and wet weather.
Early next week, a depression of around 981 hPa is expected to move from the Bay of Biscay towards northern Italy. Winds will then turn more easterly to north-easterly, allowing continental air to reach our areas. This air mass will initially be less mild, becoming significantly cooler later on.
Outlook for the second half of next week and the following weekend
Atlantic low-pressure systems are likely to gradually regain control, extending further across the British Isles and the North Sea. This would re-establish a maritime flow, once again milder, but also markedly unsettled, with frequent and at times heavy rainfall.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 2 February 2026 (4 pm)
Summary of the expected weather evolution in Belgium
based on the BMCB multi-model (operational models and ICON, AIFS, GFS, ECMWF ensembles)
Persistently mild, often unsettled – turning wetter later on
Belgium is heading into a prolonged mild spell, with frequent Atlantic disturbances. Rainfall will be regular and at times significant. Wintry precipitation will mainly be confined to higher ground, often as sleet or wet snow.
Short-term outlook
Wednesday 4 February
Very mild with wide sunny intervals.
🌧️ 1–8 l/m².
Thursday 5 February
Brighter spells mainly in Flanders, while Wallonia remains wetter.
🌧️ 0–8 l/m².
➡️ Rain everywhere overnight.
Friday 6 February
Mild and wet.
🌧️ 4–12 l/m².
Saturday 7 February
Very mild and changeable, with sunny spells and showers.
🌧️ 0–7 l/m².
Sunday 8 February
Largely dry, with variable cloud cover.
🌧️ 0 l/m².
Likely trend
More unsettled and increasingly wet, with notable rainfall totals. Temperatures stay mild, but sleet or snow becomes possible over higher elevations.
- Mon 9 Feb: Rain, risk of sleet above 500–600 m – 3–6 l/m²
- Tue 10 Feb: Rain, sleet above 500 m, snow above 650 m – 3–10 l/m²
- Wed 11 Feb: Rain, sleet above 400 m, snow above 600 m – 4–9 l/m²
- Thu 12 Feb: Similar but wetter – 7–11 l/m²
- Fri 13 Feb: Frequent rain – 10–17 l/m²
- Sat 14 Feb: Mild and very wet – 13–20 l/m²
- Sun 15 Feb: Another very wet day – 13–24 l/m²
- Mon 16 Feb: Mild, continued rain – 10–18 l/m²
👉 Bottom line: a mild, wet and unsettled period, with wintery conditions largely restricted to higher ground.
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Trend of sea-level pressure anomalies across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Update – 01/02/26
During the second half of February and into early March, low-pressure systems are expected initially to continue tracking mainly from the Atlantic towards the southern Baltic region. Thereafter, these systems are more likely to become established over the nearby Atlantic and to the west of the British Isles.
Within this setup, the boundary between contrasting air masses — initially located close to or just north of our regions — is expected to shift gradually northwards. This would place us more frequently under the influence of milder air originating from the Bay of Biscay and France.
In this dynamic and frequently unsettled pattern, precipitation totals may become rather significant during the second half of February, with generally mild but unsettled conditions prevailing.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 30-1-26
Period from 14 to 22 February: unsettled, but temporarily rather cold
Depression activity is likely to remain dominant. Several frontal systems may continue to affect our weather, with temperatures initially close to or slightly below seasonal averages. Towards the end of the period, a modest temperature recovery cannot be ruled out.
Week from 23 February to 1 March: a return to calmer conditions
A shift towards a southerly flow appears likely, while low-pressure systems track further north towards the British Isles. As a result, frontal systems would mainly affect northern Europe, allowing high pressure to build in more effectively. Weather conditions should become calmer and drier, with milder temperatures, generally 2 to 3°C above the seasonal norm.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)