Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 17 January 2026 | 7 a.m.
(BMCB multi-model analysis: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
Precipitation – next 36 hours
No significant precipitation is expected anywhere across the country.
Today
This morning, cloud cover dominates across both Flanders and western Hainaut, as well as the south of Luxembourg province. Elsewhere, sunshine already becomes more prominent.
Winds blow moderately from the south to southeast, with gusts reaching 15 to 35 km/h.
This afternoon, skies remain often very cloudy over the western parts of the country, while central and eastern regions enjoy prolonged and bright sunshine.
Winds turn more southeasterly and ease slightly, with gusts of 15 to 30 km/h.
Maximum temperatures reach around 10°C along the coast, 11 to 13°C inland, and 7 to 10°C in the High Ardennes.
In the evening, patchy fog develops in valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line. Western Flanders remains cloudy with occasional clear spells, while elsewhere skies turn slightly cloudy to clear.
Winds become light and variable, at times from the east to southeast.
Overnight, fog lingers locally in southern valleys. Skies stay mostly clear, although some high-level clouds still pass over Antwerp and the Campine region.
Minimum temperatures range from around 4°C at the coast, 3 to 6°C inland, 4 to 5°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line, but may fall to +3 to –5°C in sheltered valleys.
Tomorrow
In the morning, conditions turn largely sunny, despite a few remaining fog patches inland.
Winds stay light, variable or from the east to southeast.
During the afternoon, the weather becomes very sunny nationwide, under calm and dry conditions.
Maximum temperatures reach around 9°C along the coast, 9 to 11°C inland, and 7 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 17 January 2026 | 10 a.m.
The national thermal trend is now entering a phase of gradual and sustained cooling. Early next week, the thermal index is expected to fluctuate between 0 and +2, indicating a clearly noticeable drop in temperatures, particularly overnight and during the early morning hours. Daytime highs will generally range between 3 and 11°C, while overnight lows will vary from –3 to +4°C. In the valleys of the south-east, however, much lower values are possible under clear skies, with temperatures falling to –4 to –9°C.
Around 22 January, a brief thermal rebound is anticipated with the passage of an Atlantic disturbance. The index would temporarily rise towards +4, allowing daytime temperatures to reach 6 to 12°C, with night-time minima between 1 and 7°C.
This milder interlude is expected to be very short-lived. From the following weekend onwards, the thermal index is forecast to drop back into negative territory, oscillating between –3 and –5. In this colder setup, daytime temperatures would struggle to exceed –3 to +4°C, while nights would once again turn decidedly cold, with minima generally between 0 and –6°C, and locally even lower in depressions and valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 16 January 2026 | 11 a.m.
The current southerly to south-easterly flow, still notably mild and unsettled, will gradually dry out, while losing part of its warmth as it crosses the Alpine barrier.
Towards the end of the week, a strong anticyclonic ridge, peaking around 1037 hPa over Scandinavia, will promote the advection of significantly colder continental air into Germany.
The persistence of this high-pressure system, extending from Scandinavia to south-western Russia, suggests a growing influence of this colder air mass over our regions from the following weekend onwards.
Expected evolution towards the end of the month
The large-scale pattern is likely to become locked into a Northern European blocking regime, while low-pressure activity continues to develop from the nearby Atlantic towards south-western and southern Europe. Our regions would then lie within a transitional zone between milder maritime air over France and colder continental air advancing from Germany and the Netherlands.
In this context, the passage of weak disturbances may occur, with precipitation falling as snow or sleet, depending on the degree of cooling and the timing of the frontal systems.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Summary of the weather evolution
based on the BMCB multi-model
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
Calm mild conditions ahead of a gradual return to winter
📅 Sunday 18 January
No precipitation expected.
The day will start locally with morning fog, followed by largely sunny conditions. However, persistent low stratus will linger over the south of Luxembourg province.
During the night, fog will become widespread again, especially over the Ardennes and Campine, with light frost south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Monday 19 January
Dry weather.
A seasonal and often sunny day, although stubborn low cloud will persist over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
Overnight, fog patches will expand, particularly across Wallonia, with light frost south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Tuesday 20 January
Dry weather.
Sunshine will dominate in a calm, moderately wintry atmosphere.
At night, local fog banks will form, accompanied by light to locally moderate frost inland.
📅 Wednesday 21 January
Dry weather.
A bright and sunny day, in line with seasonal norms.
The night will turn colder, with widespread frost, locally moderate in the Ardennes.
📅 Thursday 22 January
Light precipitation possible (0–1 l/m²).
Conditions remain fairly bright, but cloud cover increases over the western half of the country.
Overnight, light frost inland, notably across the Campine and the Ardennes.
Likely trend: a gradual return of winter
📅 Friday 23 January
Precipitation: 1–4 l/m².
A cooler feel develops, with a risk of cold rain or sleet.
Light frost overnight inland.
📅 Saturday 24 January
Precipitation: 1–5 l/m².
Cool and mostly cloudy. Snow or sleet possible in the Ardennes, while lowland areas see mainly cold rain or sleet.
Overnight, light frost, locally moderate in the Ardennes.
📅 Sunday 25 January
Limited precipitation.
A fairly cold but often sunny day.
The following night turns distinctly wintry, with moderate to locally severe frost, especially south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Monday 26 January
Precipitation: 1–3 l/m².
Cloud cover gradually increases. Light snowfall possible in the Ardennes, with snow or sleet over the lowlands.
📅 Tuesday 27 January
Precipitation: 2–5 l/m².
Rather cold, with occasional light snow in the Ardennes and snow or sleet elsewhere.
📅 Wednesday 28 January
Precipitation: 1–2 l/m².
A persistently wintry atmosphere, with a risk of very light snowfall.
📅 Thursday 29 January
Precipitation: 1–2 l/m².
Cold conditions persist under often grey skies, with a slight snow risk.
📅 Friday 30 January
Precipitation: 3–6 l/m².
Fully wintry conditions, at times with light snowfall, confirming a cold end to the month.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 17 January 2026
The ECMWF ensemble forecasts, supported by the analysis of mid-tropospheric anomalies, continue to outline a well-structured and persistent atmospheric pattern for late January and the first ten days of February.
On a synoptic scale, a broad low-pressure system is expected to extend from the nearby Atlantic across much of south-western Europe and the Mediterranean Basin, while a strong anticyclonic stronghold remains firmly established from northern Greenland through northern Scandinavia to north-western Russia, forming a robust and slow-moving block.
Caught between these two major atmospheric systems, our regions would remain exposed to a cold continental flow, advecting air masses from eastern Europe and the Balkans and ensuring a distinctly wintry feel.
Further to the south-west, an active zone of interaction is likely to develop between milder maritime air advancing over France and colder continental air dominating Germany. This boundary will largely determine the weather across south-western parts of the British Isles, France and the Alps, before gradually exerting its influence over our areas as well.
Towards the second ten-day period of February, the pattern would evolve: low-pressure systems would increasingly focus over the western Mediterranean, while a new anticyclonic cell emerges over the Atlantic. This high would tend to link up progressively with the anticyclone still firmly anchored over northern Scandinavia, favouring the establishment of a north to north-easterly, rather unsettled flow across the British Isles and the North Sea.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)