Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
Overall rainfall amounts will remain modest, with regional contrasts from north to south:
- North of the Scheldt: 2 to 4 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse axis: 1 to 4 L/m²
- South of the Sambre-Meuse axis: 2 to 7 L/m²
Today
Morning
Mostly cloudy to overcast with periods of rain. In the Ardennes above 600 m, some sleet remains possible at first.
Wind from southeast to east with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloudy to overcast with further showers, mainly across Wallonia and Limburg. Some sunny intervals are possible along the coast.
Wind veering from southeast to northeast, gusts 20 to 40 km/h.
Maximum temperatures around 6°C at the coast, 4 to 10°C inland, and 1 to 3°C in the Higher Ardennes.
Evening
Becoming gradually drier with local clear spells. Patchy fog may develop, especially across Wallonia.
Wind light and variable or easterly to northerly, 5 to 25 km/h, up to 30 km/h over the Campine region and the Ardennes heights.
Tonight
Local fog patches, mainly south of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Mostly cloudy with some clearer intervals, particularly over Limburg and the Liège area.
Wind variable, 5 to 25 km/h.
Minimum temperatures around 5°C at the coast, 1 to 6°C inland, and -1 to 4°C in the Higher Ardennes.
Tomorrow
Morning
Mostly cloudy with possible brighter intervals over West Flanders. Light rain affecting Limburg, Liège, Namur and Belgian Luxembourg. Some sleet possible above 500 m in the Ardennes.
Wind westerly or variable, 5 to 25 km/h.
Afternoon and evening
Overcast with fresh rain spreading into West Flanders and extending to most areas by evening.
Southwesterly wind with gusts of 20 to 35 km/h.
Maximum temperatures around 10°C at the coast, 5 to 11°C inland, and 2 to 4°C in the Higher Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 19 February 2026
The national temperature index, currently between +1 and +2, is set to rise noticeably over the coming days.
By the weekend and during the first half of next week, it is expected to range between +6 and +8, reflecting a marked warming of the air mass across the country. Maximum temperatures will generally be between 9 and 16 °C — locally higher in midweek — while minimum temperatures will mostly fluctuate between 5 and 12 °C.
A gradual cooling trend will follow afterwards. The decline is expected to be slow and steady, bringing temperatures back near or slightly above seasonal norms by the end of the month and the start of March.
The temperature index will then settle between 0 and +3, with maxima from 6 to 13 °C and minima ranging from –1 to +6 °C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 19 February 2026
A south-westerly to westerly flow, becoming progressively milder but at times distinctly unsettled — especially on Sunday — will govern the weather pattern over the coming days. Fueled by air masses originating from the Bay of Biscay and the nearby Atlantic, the atmosphere will remain frequently dynamic, bringing spells of rain and occasionally brisk winds.
Early next week, conditions will evolve under the influence of a high-pressure cell reaching 1028 hPa, centred on Monday over south-western France. As this high gradually shifts northeastwards towards Central Europe (around 1025 hPa) and subsequently eastern Europe (1028 hPa), it will temporarily usher in even milder and drier air from southern France.
This more settled interlude is likely to be short-lived: from Thursday onwards, new Atlantic disturbances accompanied by rain and wind are expected to affect our regions.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update –
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 17 February 2026
The closing days of February and the beginning of March are expected to be shaped by a well-defined synoptic pattern across the North Atlantic and Western Europe. A ridge of high pressure would extend from the Azores towards the Mediterranean Basin, while an elongated low-pressure corridor would stretch from Greenland across Scotland to the central Baltic region.
In this configuration, our regions would remain under a prevailing west to south-westerly flow. This maritime airstream would maintain relatively mild temperatures for the time of year, accompanied by unsettled conditions with passing frontal systems and intermittent rainfall.
During the first ten days of March, numerical guidance increasingly converges towards the development of a broad, weak low-pressure area covering the nearby Atlantic and Western Europe. The flow would gradually veer from south-west to south-east, keeping temperatures on the mild side but within a significantly drier air mass, allowing for more stable and occasionally drier intervals.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 February 2026
Week of 2–8 March: a return to calmer and drier conditions
A strengthening high-pressure system is expected to extend over a large part of Europe during this period. This pattern would favour stable, dry and significantly less unsettled weather, away from active frontal systems.
In this context, local morning mist or fog may develop, followed by gradual clearing during the day under the influence of sunshine. Overall, conditions would become more settled, providing favourable weather for outdoor activities.
Week of 9–15 March: likely continuation of calm weather, with increasing mildness?
The dominant scenario maintains high-pressure influence over Western Europe. Weather conditions would remain largely calm, although low-pressure systems may develop over the nearby Atlantic.
On the fringes of these systems, cloud cover could occasionally increase, without fundamentally altering the generally stable trend. In addition, the establishment of a southerly flow towards the end of the period would support a gradual rise in temperatures, bringing a milder and early spring-like feel.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)