Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update 13-12-25 – 8 AM
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROMEHD – ALADIN)
Dry and calm conditions dominate under high pressure.
Today, low cloud and fog will be widespread, particularly inland and over the Ardennes and Hainaut. Brighter spells are more frequent across Flanders and coastal areas. Maximum temperatures will range from around 10°C near the coast, 8–11°C inland, and 5–7°C in the High Ardennes.
Tonight, fog and low cloud will redevelop inland, while clearer conditions persist in parts of Flanders. Local valley frost is possible.
Tomorrow remains mostly cloudy with occasional sunny intervals, especially in northern regions. Temperatures remain similar.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Weather Update – 12 December 2025, 10 a.m.
According to the latest analyses, the national thermal index is expected to fluctuate between +6 and +3 over the coming days. This relatively mild pattern for the time of year should persist until around 20 December.
In practical terms, daytime maximum temperatures will generally range between 6 and 13°C during the mildest periods. During slightly cooler phases, maximum values should remain mostly between 4 and 11°C.
After 20 December, a gradual decrease in the national thermal index is anticipated. Around Christmas, the index is expected to turn negative, reaching values of –2 to –3 over the following two days.
Under this scenario, maximum temperatures across Belgium would range between –1 and +6°C. Minimum temperatures would generally be between 0 and +2°C along the coast, between –2 and –4°C elsewhere, with a risk of locally more severe frost, possibly between –5 and –10°C, in some valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 13 December 2025 – 11 am
A strong high-pressure system, with central values between 1029 and 1030 hPa, will establish itself over the coming days — and likely throughout the entire week ahead — between Central Europe, the Black Sea, and as far as Ukraine.
In this configuration, the western flank of the anticyclone will advect very mild air from eastern France and the Alpine region toward our areas, resulting in temperatures well above seasonal averages.
At the same time, towards the end of the week, a low-pressure system of around 997 hPa is expected near the British and French coasts, before shifting northwards at the start of the weekend. In its wake, a subsequent and deeper Atlantic low (973 to 988 hPa) may dive towards southwestern Europe, causing a gradual veering of the airflow over our regions towards the southeast and east.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update 13-12-25 – 1:00 PM
Weather Evolution – Belgium
Based on the BMCB multimodel
(Operational models + ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
📅 Monday 15 December
- Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
- Minimum temperatures: 1 to 7°C
- Maximum temperatures: 6 to 12°C
- Conditions: very mild
Morning fog over the southern part of Luxembourg province.
Later becoming largely sunny, although some stubborn cloud cover may persist over the southern high ground of the Ardennes.
Moderate to fairly strong southerly winds with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h.
During the following night, a few rain showers are expected, mainly over western Belgium.
📅 Tuesday 16 December
- Precipitation (24h): 0 to 10 L/m²
- Minimum temperatures: 3 to 9°C
- Maximum temperatures: 7 to 13°C
- Conditions: very mild
A mix of bright spells and cloudier periods.
During the following night, a risk of a few light, local showers.
📅 Wednesday 17 December
- Precipitation (24h): 0 to 2 L/m²
- Minimum temperatures: 3 to 9°C
- Maximum temperatures: 6 to 12°C
- Conditions: very mild
Variable to cloudy skies with occasional brighter intervals.
Overnight, rain will spread across the country from the west.
📅 Thursday 18 December
- Precipitation (24h): 0 to 10 L/m²
- Minimum temperatures: 5 to 11°C
- Maximum temperatures: 7 to 13°C
- Conditions: very mild
Sunny intervals alternating with cloudy spells.
Widespread rain during the night.
Moderate to strong southerly to south-westerly winds, with gusts of 45 to 65 km/h, increasing overnight to 50–70 km/h.
📅 Friday 19 December
- Precipitation (24h): 3 to 15 L/m²
- Minimum temperatures: 4 to 10°C
- Maximum temperatures: 7 to 13°C
- Conditions: very mild
Rain continuing over eastern areas, while brighter spells develop in the west.
Moderate to fairly strong south-westerly winds with gusts of 35 to 55 km/h.
Likely trend
From 20 December onwards, calmer conditions are expected, followed by a gradual cooling.
Around Christmas, temperatures are likely to return to seasonal values, with occasional very light precipitation, locally falling as snow over the High Ardennes.
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Forecast anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
( charts )
Update 13-12-25 – 7:00 AM
The gradual displacement of high-pressure systems toward Northern Europe and the north-eastern Atlantic, combined with the establishment of a pronounced low-pressure area over the Maghreb, is expected by late December and early January to lead to the development of a significantly colder north-easterly flow across large parts of Central and Western Europe.
During the second and third weeks of January, this configuration is likely to persist in part. The low-pressure system would remain over the western Mediterranean basin, while the high-pressure areas retreat further westward over the Atlantic and strengthen again over north-western Russia and eastern Scandinavia.
This synoptic pattern would likely result in the persistence of a continental, predominantly cold airflow across much of Europe.
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METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 5 December 2025
🗓 Period from 19 to 28 December — Christmas Week
Recent atmospheric modelling points to a calmer, high-pressure-dominated pattern during Christmas week. Under winter anticyclones, fog and low clouds are likely to be widespread, occasionally limiting sunshine. Temperatures would gradually decrease but remain slightly above seasonal norms.
🗓 Week from 29 December to 4 January — New Year Week
The high-pressure system may shift northward, introducing a more continental and progressively colder airflow. The weather would stay calm and dry, with frequent morning fog and low clouds, but with more afternoon bright spells. Temperatures would return to near-seasonal values, especially south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
Late winter outlook 2026
January 2026: unsettled and generally mild
Temperatures
A nationwide temperature anomaly close to +1.0°C is expected. Disturbed oceanic flows will frequently bring mild conditions, punctuated by brief cold-air incursions.
The probability of temperatures near or above average is around 80%.
Precipitation
A slight rainfall surplus (+10%) is likely due to frequent Atlantic disturbances within a prevailing west to south-westerly flow.
January could therefore become the wettest month of the 2025–2026 winter.
Overall pattern
A dynamic Atlantic circulation would favour a steady succession of Atlantic weather systems.
February 2026: slightly drier, still mild
Temperatures
A temperature surplus of around +1.0°C is expected to persist. Southerly to south-easterly flows may dominate between Atlantic lows and more anticyclonic conditions over central Europe.
Overall mild conditions, with occasional colder continental spells.
Precipitation
A slight precipitation deficit (-10%) is expected as weather systems become less active under the influence of continental high pressure.
Overall pattern
An alternation between anticyclonic phases and weak disturbances arriving from the west or south.
Short cold and dry periods may occur in between.
March 2026: finally a seasonally normal month?
Temperatures
Values close to seasonal averages, alternating between colder spells and milder, more unstable periods.
Precipitation
Rainfall amounts generally close to climatological normals.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)