Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 2 March 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
No precipitation is expected across the country. Rainfall totals will remain at zero north of the Scheldt, between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse valley, and south of it.
Situation and evolution
This morning, local fog patches are present, mainly in Luxembourg province. These will dissipate quickly, giving way to generally sunny conditions. Winds are from the south to south-east, with peak speeds of 20 to 40 km/h.
This afternoon will remain largely sunny. Some cumulus clouds may develop over the southern Ardennes and the Gaume region, without any impact. Winds will turn south-east to south, with peak speeds of 25 to 35 km/h. Maximum temperatures will reach around 17°C along the coast, 14 to 19°C inland, and 10 to 13°C in the Ardennes.
During the evening, local fog patches may reform, especially south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. Skies will remain mostly clear, although higher cloud cover may increase over West Flanders. Winds will ease, remaining from the south to south-east, with peak speeds of 10 to 25 km/h.
Tonight will be calm and often clear, with local fog formation, especially in southern areas and valleys. Winds will be light and variable, later becoming south-east to south. Minimum temperatures will fall to around 5°C along the coast, 5 to 8°C inland, 5 to 7°C south of the Sambre-Meuse valley, and locally between 4 and –4°C in some Ardennes valleys.
Outlook for tomorrow
The morning will begin with local fog patches, especially south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. These will clear to give very sunny conditions, although slightly more cloud cover is expected over West Flanders. Winds will be light and variable, with peak speeds of 5 to 25 km/h.
The afternoon will remain very sunny overall. Some increased cloudiness may occur locally over West Flanders, while a few cumulus clouds develop south of the Sambre-Meuse valley. Winds will turn north to north-east, with peak speeds of 10 to 30 km/h. Maximum temperatures will reach around 12°C along the coast, 16 to 19°C inland, and 12 to 15°C in the Ardennes.
Fog formation may redevelop during the evening, especially over Luxembourg province, under calm and stable conditions.
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 28 February 2026
The national thermal indicator is expected to fluctuate mostly between +2 and +6 over the coming days, reflecting the persistence of a sustainably mild air mass for the time of year.
In this context, maximum temperatures will frequently reach 13 to 20 °C during the mildest days. More generally, they will range between 7 and 14 °C when conditions become more variable and temporarily less mild.
Towards 7 March, a slight change in the trend is expected to emerge.
The thermal indicator would gradually return to values between +1 and +2. Maximum temperatures would then most often range between 8 and 15 °C, confirming that thermal conditions will remain slightly above seasonal averages, despite a relative easing of the mildness.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 1 March 2026
Several high-pressure cells, with central pressures between 1027 and 1032 hPa, will circulate over the coming days between Central Europe, the British Isles and the North Sea.
This pattern will maintain a very mild air mass over our regions for the time of year, at least until the middle of next week.
A cold front will then reach England and move across our regions towards the end of the week.
It will be quickly followed by a new high-pressure cell (1033–1035 hPa), whose centre is expected to position itself next weekend between southern England, the North Sea and southern Scandinavia.
This system will establish a northerly to north-easterly flow, bringing progressively cooler air, initially from the North Sea and then via Germany and Central Europe, gradually becoming somewhat milder again along its path.
At the beginning of the following week, the air mass, having turned milder again, is likely to become somewhat more unstable, with the possibility of a few showers.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 1 March 2026
Weather outlook for Belgium according to the BMCB multimodel
(Operational models and ensembles ICON, AIFS, GFS and ECMWF)
Tuesday 3 to Thursday 5 March: exceptionally mild and sunny
The period begins under the influence of a strong high-pressure system, bringing dry and very mild conditions across the entire country.
Tuesday 3 March: mostly sunny with some high clouds, especially over the western half of the country. No precipitation expected.
Wednesday 4 March: very stable conditions with abundant sunshine and spring-like temperatures. Dry everywhere.
Thursday 5 March: continued very sunny weather and unusually mild for the season. Remaining dry.
Friday 6 and Saturday 7 March: gradual return to more unsettled conditions
Weather will deteriorate from the west as Atlantic disturbances move in.
Friday 6 March: periods of rain spreading from the west, with totals between 3 and 15 L/m². A north-westerly wind will become noticeable, with gusts between 30 and 50 km/h. Temperatures will remain very mild.
Saturday 7 March: more variable conditions. Rain will mainly affect the eastern half, while the west will see sunny intervals, gradually extending towards the centre. Rainfall amounts remain light to locally moderate (0 to 15 L/m²). Temperatures stay mild.
Trend from Sunday 8 to Wednesday 11 March: persistently mild and often dry
Mild air remains dominant, with frequently dry conditions.
Sunday 8 March: dry and very mild across the country.
Monday 9 March: generally dry, with only a very limited risk of light precipitation.
Tuesday 10 March: a few light rain spells or isolated showers remain possible, with continued very mild temperatures.
Wednesday 11 March: return to mostly dry and mild weather.
Thursday 12 to Sunday 15 March: trend toward wetter but still mild conditions
A shift toward more unsettled weather appears likely, although temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.
Thursday 12 March: possibility of occasional light rain, locally.
Friday 13 March: more variable conditions with occasional rain.
Saturday 14 March: clearer return of more frequent rainfall periods.
Sunday 15 March: continued damp conditions with further spells of rain.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 2 March 2026
Likely trend for the second half of March
Current projections indicate the establishment of a vast high-pressure system extending initially from Scandinavia into eastern Europe. This pattern would promote a south-easterly airflow across our regions, bringing predominantly calm, dry and seasonally mild conditions.
At a later stage, this high-pressure area is expected to shift gradually westwards, extending from Scandinavia across the North Sea towards the British Isles. Such an evolution would favour a prevailing north-easterly flow over our areas, while maintaining stable and dry weather. Temperatures would generally remain above seasonal averages, confirming a persistently settled and mild end to March.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 27 February 2026
Week of 16–22 March: continued dry conditions, slightly cooler
The prevailing high-pressure system is expected to persist, maintaining calm and dry weather across the country. However, a gradual shift to a northerly airflow may lead to a slight decrease in temperatures. Even so, values are likely to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Under these stable conditions, marked daily temperature ranges are expected, with cool mornings followed by milder afternoons, a typical feature of March weather.
Week of 23–29 March: possibly more unsettled towards the end of the month
Forecast confidence decreases at this range. The dominant scenario still supports continued high-pressure influence, resulting in largely dry and stable conditions.
However, alternative scenarios suggest a weakening of the high-pressure system, allowing Atlantic disturbances to return towards the end of the month, bringing temporarily more unsettled weather.
In all cases, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals, confirming an already well-established spring-like trend.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)