As part of a new meteorological simulation exercise conducted for the experimental aircraft Climate Impulse ( www.climateimpulse.org ), which will undertake a virtual circumnavigation of the globe during the second half of March over several days, our operational resources will once again be temporarily mobilized.
Consequently, the forecast publications issued on the groups, pages, and websites of the Belgian Meteo Club Belge will be somewhat reduced during this period.
Forecasts for the next 42 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 16 March 2026
Precipitation (next 42 hours)
Rainfall totals will remain generally limited across Belgium:
- North of the Scheldt: 0–1 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse valley: 0–2 L/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 1–4 L/m²
Today
Morning
Cloudy skies with some sunny intervals. The last light rain persists over Belgian Luxembourg.
West wind with peak speeds of 35–45 km/h.
Afternoon
Becoming very cloudy in western Belgium. Elsewhere skies will remain variable to cloudy with a few light showers.
Conditions should stay mostly dry over Flanders, Antwerp province and western Hainaut.
West wind with maxima 35–45 km/h.
🌡 Maximum temperatures
- around 11°C along the coast
- 9 to 13°C inland
- 5 to 8°C in the High Ardennes
Evening
Very cloudy to overcast with some light rain locally, mainly over the eastern half of the country.
South-westerly wind 10–30 km/h.
Tonight
Cloudy to overcast with a few remaining light showers, mainly over Limburg and the Liège region.
South-westerly wind 10–30 km/h.
🌡 Minimum temperatures
- 8°C at the coast
- 7 to 9°C inland
- +1 to +7°C south of the Sambre–Meuse valley
Tomorrow
Morning
Cloudy to overcast at first with some residual light rain over Limburg and the Liège region, while Flanders, Antwerp, Brabant and Hainaut gradually see broader sunny intervals.
Wind variable or from the south to southwest, 5–25 km/h.
Afternoon
Generally fairly sunny weather across most regions.
More cloud cover may persist over the higher elevations of Liège and Belgian Luxembourg.
South wind 15–35 km/h.
🌡 Maximum temperatures
- 16°C at the coast
- 12 to 17°C inland
- 9 to 11°C in the Ardennes
Evening
Clear to slightly veiled by high-level clouds.
🌡 Temperatures around 22:00
- 10°C along the coast
- 8–12°C over the plains
- 5–8°C south of the Sambre–Meuse valley
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National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 16 March 2026
Belgium’s national thermal indicator continues to rise and is expected to reach a peak between +4 and +5 on Tuesday 17 March.
Under these conditions, daytime temperatures will generally range between 9 and 17°C, confirming the establishment of a milder spell across the country.
For the remainder of the forecast period, the indicator is expected to gradually return to values between 0 and –2 from 21 March onward. Maximum temperatures would then range between 9 and 15°C on the mildest days, while cooler days would see values between 6 and 12°C.
In this thermal context, light night frosts may occur locally from 19 March, occasionally somewhat more pronounced in valley bottoms in the south-east of the country.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 16 March 2026
A 1025 hPa high-pressure cell will move over the next 24 hours from southwest France toward northern Poland. In its wake, milder and progressively drier air will reach our regions from southern Germany starting tomorrow.
During the following days, the main centre of a broad anticyclonic system, with central pressure ranging between 1027 and 1033 hPa, will shift from southern Scandinavia toward Scotland via the North Sea.
This configuration will maintain a dry continental flow from the northeast to east across much of Western Europe. The air mass will initially remain fairly mild before becoming slightly cooler, with temperatures gradually returning closer to seasonal averages.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 16 March 2026
Summary of the expected weather evolution based on the BMCB multimodel
(Operational models and ensemble guidance from ICON, AIFS, GFS and ECMWF)
Wednesday 18 March
Very sunny conditions with rather mild temperatures. East to southeast winds with gusts of 30–50 km/h.
Rainfall/24h: 0 L/m²
Thursday 19 March
Continued sunny weather with pleasant temperatures for the season.
Rainfall/24h: 0 L/m²
Friday 20 March
Slightly cooler. Cloudiness may temporarily increase from the north with a small risk of very light rain or local showers, mainly over the eastern half of the country. Rather windy from N to NE, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Rainfall/24h: 0–1 L/m²
Saturday 21 March
Fairly cool. The morning should remain quite sunny, followed by increasing cloud intervals. A slight risk of light showers over southern areas. Rather windy from E to NE, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Rainfall/24h: 0–1 L/m²
Sunday 22 March
Fairly cool but generally sunny. East to northeast winds with gusts 30–50 km/h.
Rainfall/24h: 0 L/m²
Outlook
23 March: fairly sunny and dry.
24 March: more clouds but little or no precipitation.
25 March: cool with some precipitation (3–10 L/m²).
26 March: cool with limited precipitation (1–3 L/m²).
27 March: slightly milder with some rain (1–8 L/m²).
28 March: cool with occasional rain (1–8 L/m²).
29 March: cool with more frequent precipitation (6–9 L/m²).
30 March: cool with intermittent rainfall (3–9 L/m²).
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
ALL Maps
Update – 14 March 2026
Trend for early April
Projections in the middle troposphere suggest the development of a broad high-pressure system extending from the nearby Atlantic towards the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. At the same time, a low-pressure belt could stretch from Morocco to the Black Sea.
Under these conditions, our regions would lie within a northerly to north-easterly airflow, bringing generally dry but rather cool air.
Trend for the week of 6–13 April
The high-pressure system is expected to persist, extending from Greenland towards northern Scandinavia. Meanwhile, low-pressure activity would tend to concentrate west of the Bay of Biscay and especially over the Middle East.
For our regions, this pattern could lead to a weak continental airflow or even a barometric slack situation, with relatively dry continental air and temperatures close to seasonal averages.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 March 2026
Week of 30 March to 5 April: potential improvement but risk of spring frost
The most likely scenario suggests a return of high-pressure conditions at the beginning of April. This could bring calm and generally dry weather across the country in the run-up to the Easter weekend.
Such a pattern would probably lead to marked daily temperature contrasts: cool to cold mornings under clear skies followed by pleasant and distinctly spring-like afternoons.
However, the risk of late spring frost will need to be monitored closely, as it could locally prove damaging to vegetation that is already actively developing.
Week of 6 to 12 April: more unsettled weather before a possible rise in temperatures
During the following week, weather conditions may become more changeable again under the influence of a disturbed Atlantic flow.
Passing frontal systems would bring rainfall along with milder air masses. On a countrywide scale, temperatures could gradually move back above seasonal averages.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update – 14 March 2026
Global context: La Niña weakening, possible shift toward El Niño
Ocean–atmosphere indicators across the tropical Pacific show that the La Niña episode is gradually weakening. Multi-model projections suggest a transition toward neutral conditions in the coming months, with increasing chances of an El Niño episode developing by summer.
Such a transition could eventually influence large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and therefore affect temperature and precipitation regimes in several regions worldwide, including Europe.
April: a still variable start to spring
The westerly circulation is likely to remain fairly active across western Europe, leading to an alternation of disturbed spells and quieter periods under temporarily higher pressure.
Temperatures are expected to remain close to seasonal averages or slightly above, with an anomaly of about +0.5 to +1°C, which is relatively modest.
No dominant scenario currently emerges. In a marginal anticyclonic setting, the risk of late frost during clear nights remains possible.
Overall precipitation totals should remain near normal.
May: a more stable and rather mild pattern
Atlantic high-pressure systems may extend more frequently towards western Europe, favouring calmer and sunnier periods, occasionally interrupted by thunderstorms.
Temperatures would likely show a slight positive anomaly, around +0.5 to +1°C above normal, although this signal remains modest and indicates limited forecast confidence at this range.
Rainfall totals could become slightly below average.
June: a more summery, warm and thundery atmosphere
Early summer could be influenced by a recurring upper-level cold low over the Iberian Peninsula. This configuration would favour warm air advection towards our regions and frequent thunderstorm developments.
Although rainfall distribution would remain highly variable depending on storm activity, this setup could maintain a noticeable level of summer precipitation.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal, with a likely anomaly between +1 and +1.5°C.
Rainfall would largely depend on thunderstorms and may become locally above normal in the most affected areas.
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from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)