Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 16 January 2026 | 7 a.m.
(BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROMEHD – ALADIN)
Rainfall – next 36 hours
Overall rainfall totals will remain limited, though with clear regional differences:
- North of the Scheldt: 0–2 mm
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 1–3 mm
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 1–7 mm
Today
This morning, bright spells are already developing over Flanders and the Antwerp area. Elsewhere, skies remain mostly cloudy, with a few lingering showers east of the Meuse.
A southerly breeze will be moderate, with gusts of 15 to 25 km/h.
This afternoon, clearer intervals spread across Flanders, Antwerp, Hainaut and both Brabant provinces. Further east, conditions remain cloudy to overcast, with some isolated light rain.
Maximum temperatures will reach around 11°C along the coast, 8 to 12°C inland, and 6 to 7°C in the High Ardennes.
This evening, clearer skies dominate north of the Sambre–Meuse line, while cloud cover persists elsewhere. Winds gradually veer south-easterly.
Overnight, clear spells linger across the Liège area and eastern Belgian Luxembourg, while new rain bands move into other regions.
Minimum temperatures will range from around 6°C near the coast, 6 to 9°C inland, 4 to 7°C south of the Sambre–Meuse, dropping to 1 to 3°C in sheltered valleys.
Tomorrow
During the morning, bright intervals continue across Liège, Limburg and eastern Belgian Luxembourg. Elsewhere, skies remain overcast, with light rain, especially over both Flanders, Hainaut and southern Namur.
In the afternoon, clearer spells persist mainly around Liège, while most other regions stay dry but cloudy. Fog patches may form during the evening, particularly in West Flanders.
Maximum temperatures will reach around 10°C along the coast, 11 to 12°C inland, and 8 to 10°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 16 January 2026 | 10 a.m.
The national thermal index, currently fluctuating between +5 and +6, is now set to decline gradually, turning negative early next week.
Initially, the index will hover around the freezing point, between 0 and –1, through to the end of the week. This transitional phase will bring daytime temperatures generally ranging from 0 to 8°C, while night-time minima will mostly lie between –4 and +2°C. Lower values may occur locally in the valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
From the following weekend onward, the cooling trend will become more pronounced. The thermal index is expected to fall to between –3 and –6, signalling a distinctly wintry regime. Daytime highs will vary by region between +4 and –3°C, while sub-zero temperatures will prevail everywhere overnight and in the early morning, typically between 0 and –7°C. Under clear skies and calm conditions, even lower temperatures are likely, particularly in the valleys of the south-eastern part of the country.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 16 January 2026 | 11 a.m.
The current southerly to south-easterly flow, still notably mild and unsettled, will gradually dry out, while losing part of its warmth as it crosses the Alpine barrier.
Towards the end of the week, a strong anticyclonic ridge, peaking around 1037 hPa over Scandinavia, will promote the advection of significantly colder continental air into Germany.
The persistence of this high-pressure system, extending from Scandinavia to south-western Russia, suggests a growing influence of this colder air mass over our regions from the following weekend onwards.
Expected evolution towards the end of the month
The large-scale pattern is likely to become locked into a Northern European blocking regime, while low-pressure activity continues to develop from the nearby Atlantic towards south-western and southern Europe. Our regions would then lie within a transitional zone between milder maritime air over France and colder continental air advancing from Germany and the Netherlands.
In this context, the passage of weak disturbances may occur, with precipitation falling as snow or sleet, depending on the degree of cooling and the timing of the frontal systems.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Summary of the weather evolution
based on the BMCB multi-model
(operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – ECMWF)
Calm mild conditions ahead of a gradual return to winter
📅 Sunday 18 January
No precipitation expected.
The day will start locally with morning fog, followed by largely sunny conditions. However, persistent low stratus will linger over the south of Luxembourg province.
During the night, fog will become widespread again, especially over the Ardennes and Campine, with light frost south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Monday 19 January
Dry weather.
A seasonal and often sunny day, although stubborn low cloud will persist over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
Overnight, fog patches will expand, particularly across Wallonia, with light frost south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Tuesday 20 January
Dry weather.
Sunshine will dominate in a calm, moderately wintry atmosphere.
At night, local fog banks will form, accompanied by light to locally moderate frost inland.
📅 Wednesday 21 January
Dry weather.
A bright and sunny day, in line with seasonal norms.
The night will turn colder, with widespread frost, locally moderate in the Ardennes.
📅 Thursday 22 January
Light precipitation possible (0–1 l/m²).
Conditions remain fairly bright, but cloud cover increases over the western half of the country.
Overnight, light frost inland, notably across the Campine and the Ardennes.
Likely trend: a gradual return of winter
📅 Friday 23 January
Precipitation: 1–4 l/m².
A cooler feel develops, with a risk of cold rain or sleet.
Light frost overnight inland.
📅 Saturday 24 January
Precipitation: 1–5 l/m².
Cool and mostly cloudy. Snow or sleet possible in the Ardennes, while lowland areas see mainly cold rain or sleet.
Overnight, light frost, locally moderate in the Ardennes.
📅 Sunday 25 January
Limited precipitation.
A fairly cold but often sunny day.
The following night turns distinctly wintry, with moderate to locally severe frost, especially south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
📅 Monday 26 January
Precipitation: 1–3 l/m².
Cloud cover gradually increases. Light snowfall possible in the Ardennes, with snow or sleet over the lowlands.
📅 Tuesday 27 January
Precipitation: 2–5 l/m².
Rather cold, with occasional light snow in the Ardennes and snow or sleet elsewhere.
📅 Wednesday 28 January
Precipitation: 1–2 l/m².
A persistently wintry atmosphere, with a risk of very light snowfall.
📅 Thursday 29 January
Precipitation: 1–2 l/m².
Cold conditions persist under often grey skies, with a slight snow risk.
📅 Friday 30 January
Precipitation: 3–6 l/m².
Fully wintry conditions, at times with light snowfall, confirming a cold end to the month.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 16 January 2026
The ECMWF ensemble forecasts, supported by an analysis of mid-tropospheric anomalies, continue to outline a remarkably well-defined and persistent atmospheric pattern for late January and the first ten days of February.
On a large scale, a broad low-pressure system is expected to remain stretched from the nearby Atlantic towards North Africa and the western Mediterranean basin. In clear opposition, a powerful anticyclone would stay firmly established, extending its influence from north-western Russia all the way to Greenland.
Between these two dominant systems, our regions would remain under the influence of a continental easterly flow, advecting cold air masses from Central and Eastern Europe as well as the Balkans. This setup would maintain a decidedly wintry and often harsh atmosphere, particularly during the night-time hours.
At the same time, a zone of air-mass confrontation would continue to organise itself and extend from the nearby Atlantic across France, the south of the British Isles, our regions, the Alps and into Italy, forming a disturbed boundary with precipitation between oceanic and continental influences.
Towards the second decade of February, the scenarios suggest a gradual eastward shift of the core of the low-pressure activity into the Mediterranean region. Meanwhile, high-pressure systems would tend to reassert themselves over the Atlantic, while remaining firmly anchored over northern Scandinavia and Russia.
Such an evolution would pave the way for the establishment of a north to north-westerly flow over the North Sea, bringing less cold but potentially unstable or unsettled air. This transition, still to be confirmed, could mark a noticeable change in the atmospheric dynamics affecting our regions.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)