Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 22 January 2026 | 7 a.m.
Analysis based on the BMCB multimodel (ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
Expected precipitation (next 36 hours)
Rainfall totals will remain generally modest:
– North of the Scheldt: 0.5 to 1.5 l/m²
– Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 0 to 0.5 l/m²
– South of the Sambre–Meuse: 0 to 2 l/m²
Today: marked contrasts between sunshine and low cloud
This morning, sunshine will be widespread across the Campine, the Liège area, northern Luxembourg and Namur, as well as much of eastern Brabant.
Elsewhere, skies remain heavily overcast, with rain close to the French border.
Winds blow from the east to southeast, generally moderate (10–30 km/h), but stronger gusts of 30–40 km/h are likely over the eastern high ground.
This afternoon, cloud cover will increase further. Skies will often be very cloudy, with occasional light rain, mainly across Flanders. A few breaks may still occur locally.
Southeasterly winds strengthen slightly, with gusts reaching 20–30 km/h.
Maximum temperatures will reach around 8°C along the coast, 6 to 11°C inland, and only 4 to 5°C over the High Ardennes.
During the evening, conditions turn more variable with some clear spells, though eastern areas of the Meuse remain largely overcast with a few residual showers.
Winds turn south to southeast and remain noticeable, with gusts up to 35 km/h.
Overnight, clear spells alternate with high cloud. Low stratus and fog patches develop, particularly over the Liège uplands and Belgian Luxembourg.
Minimum temperatures fall to around 4°C at the coast, 4 to 6°C inland, and 1 to 5°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Tomorrow: gradual deterioration
In the morning, conditions remain fairly bright across much of the country, while the Ardennes, southern Namur and Belgian Luxembourg stay under persistent cloud.
Southeasterly winds continue to strengthen, with gusts up to 40 km/h.
In the afternoon, cloud cover becomes widespread everywhere. The last sunny breaks over Limburg and Liège fade, followed by rain spreading across Flanders, Hainaut and southern Namur.
The southeasterly wind remains brisk.
Maximum temperatures reach around 8°C along the coast, 6 to 12°C inland, and close to 5°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 22 January 2026 | 9 a.m.
Until Saturday 24 January, Belgium will remain under the influence of a positive national thermal index, fluctuating between +1 and +4. This relative mildness will translate into daytime temperatures ranging from 4 to 11 °C, while nighttime minima generally remain between 0 and 7 °C. A subdued winter phase, still short of true seasonal cold.
From Sunday onwards, a marked change in conditions is expected. A pronounced cooling trend will set in, pushing the thermal index into negative territory, with values near –4 to –5 by Monday 26 January. This will signal a genuine return to winter conditions. Daytime highs will be confined to –3 to +3 °C, while overnight temperatures will fall to between –6 and 0 °C across the country. In valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line, lows could locally plunge to –7 to –10 °C.
This cold spell, however, is not expected to persist for long. By midweek, the thermal index is forecast to rise again, fluctuating between –1 and +2. Daytime temperatures would then recover to between 1 and 8 °C depending on altitude, while night-time and early morning minima range from –1 to +6 °C according to region.
A further downturn remains possible — though still to be confirmed — towards the end of the month and during the first days of February. The thermal index could then slip back to between 0 and –2, corresponding to daytime temperatures of –1 to +1 °C in the Ardennes and +2 to +6 °C in lowland and coastal areas. Night-time frost would once again become widespread, with minima generally between 0 and –4 °C inland.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
Update – 22 January 2026 | 11:00
An atmospheric system in motion
An exceptionally deep storm depression — with a central pressure of around 958 hPa — will approach the western English Channel on Friday. Acting as a powerful driver of large-scale circulation, it will propel its active frontal systems towards France, the British Isles and the Iberian Peninsula.
Our regions will remain largely on the fringe of this system, with rainfall reaching us only in a much weakened form and without any pronounced impact.
Over the weekend, this depression will gradually fill while lingering to the west of the British Isles, with pressure rising towards 986 hPa.
At the same time, another low-pressure system will move eastwards into the Mediterranean.
This configuration will cause a shift in airflow over our areas from south-easterly to easterly, allowing increasingly continental air to move in, turning distinctly cooler to fairly cold at the start of next week.
However, this wintery interlude may prove short-lived. From around midday on Tuesday, a new depression — estimated at 983 hPa — will approach Brittany. The accompanying rain bands will cross the Benelux region, followed by the arrival of milder maritime air, leading to a gradual rise in temperatures.
Looking ahead to the end of the month and early February
Further ahead, model guidance continues to suggest a broad low-pressure zone extending from the Atlantic into France. This pattern would place our regions most often under a south-easterly flow, with a possible temporary shift to easterlies, bringing cooler to fairly cold conditions once again.
A return to milder weather, associated with a south to south-easterly flow, could occur around 3 February, though this scenario still requires confirmation. In the meantime, minimum temperatures across inland areas may frequently fall to between 0 and –4 °C, a reminder that winter still retains the ability to make its presence felt.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 22 January 2026 | 12:00
Expected weather evolution
Analysis based on the BMCB multimodel
(operational models and ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
A gradual transition toward more contrasted weather conditions
📅 Saturday, 24 January
In an atmosphere still mild for the time of year, the day will be calm. Bright spells will gradually become more widespread, bringing a largely pleasant day with little or no precipitation.
📅 Sunday, 25 January
Temperatures will turn slightly cooler without becoming truly cold. Sunshine will remain present, though cloud cover will increase during the afternoon, especially over the southern Ardennes. Overnight, mist and fog patches will form across inland areas.
📅 Monday, 26 January
A fairly cold day, locally marked by low cloud and stubborn fog in low-lying areas. Brighter spells will nevertheless develop during the day, particularly across the Ardennes and more generally over Wallonia.
📅 Tuesday, 27 January
A marked change in conditions. Cloud cover will thicken rapidly, bringing precipitation that may initially fall as sleet in inland areas. Winds will strengthen, with south-easterly to easterly gusts reaching 40–60 km/h.
📅 Wednesday, 28 January
Milder air will return, accompanied by showers. It will remain windy, with gusts from the south to south-east reaching 50–70 km/h.
Likely trend
📅 Thursday, 29 January
Seasonal conditions prevail. Occasional sleet or snow showers are possible in the High Ardennes, while rain dominates in the lowlands.
📅 Friday, 30 January
Precipitation becomes more frequent. The High Ardennes may experience more sustained periods of snow or sleet, while rain remains prevalent across the plains.
📅 Saturday, 31 January
A distinctly winter-flavoured pattern, with snow at higher elevations and rain or sleet elsewhere.
📅 Sunday, 1 February
A cooler atmosphere settles in. Snow remains possible over the High Ardennes, while lower elevations mainly see rain or sleet.
📅 Monday, 2 February
Conditions stay cool and unsettled, with regular precipitation: snow at altitude, rain or sleet in the lowlands.
📅 Tuesday, 3 February
Seasonal weather continues under often cloudy skies, with a similar precipitation regime.
Summary
Overall, the period is characterised by an alternation between calm intervals and more active disturbances, with a constant balance between relative mildness and winter chill. Snow will remain largely confined to higher ground, though it may temporarily reach lower levels during transitional phases.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 21 January 2026
According to the ECMWF ensemble forecasts, interpreted in light of mid-tropospheric anomalies, the beginning of February is expected to be dominated by persistent Atlantic low-pressure activity extending into southwestern Europe. This setup would establish a broad air-mass conflict zone to the south of our region, stretching from western France to southern Germany.
Within this pattern, cold air is likely to maintain its grip over the British Isles, the North Sea and northern Germany, while milder air advances into southern France, Italy and large parts of the Balkans.
The second decade of February could initially be marked by a more pronounced southward push of Scandinavian cold air, spreading across our regions and the entirety of Germany. This wintery incursion would, however, be temporary. As a southerly to south-easterly flow re-establishes over France, the cold air would retreat northwards once again, allowing a disturbed frontal zone to develop from southern England to southern Poland, extending northward across the northern Benelux.
Toward the end of the month, low-pressure activity is expected to persist between the Atlantic, the British Isles and Brittany. Over our regions, southerly to south-easterly flows would then dominate, bringing milder conditions, potentially accompanied by unsettled weather.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 15-1-26
Period from 30 January to 8 February: fairly cold conditions persisting under a changeable sky
At this range, the most credible scenario remains that of changeable and often fairly cold weather, with no clear signal for a sustained blocked pattern. While a cold spell is likely, its duration and intensity remain uncertain at this stage.
Cold conditions could linger, particularly if high-pressure systems shift northwards towards northern Europe. However, this remains a secondary scenario for now. Overall, a seasonably cool pattern is expected, occasionally accentuated by persistent cloud cover, but without notable extremes.
Temperatures: slightly below average (≈ –1.5 °C)
Precipitation: generally close to average (–10 to +10%)
Week from 9 to 15 February: ongoing uncertainty, slow warming trend emerging
For this period, the forecast signal remains fragile and of limited reliability. A gradual retreat of the anticyclonic block would favour a more mobile weather pattern, alternating between quieter intervals and renewed unsettled spells, within an environment becoming progressively milder and more humid.
The warming trend would develop gradually, in successive stages, associated with passing rain systems, without any abrupt regime change.
Temperatures: close to average (–1 to +1 °C)
Precipitation: near average, occasionally slightly below average (–15 to 0%), depending on the persistence of high-pressure influence
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)