Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 16 February 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 3–11 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse valley: 4–16 L/m²
- South of the Sambre-Meuse valley: 6–29 L/m²
Today
Morning
Variable to mostly cloudy with showers, mainly inland.
- sleet above 450 m
- snow above 650 m
Wind: south-westerly, gusts 20–40 km/h; along the coast westerly 40–55 km/h.
Afternoon
Remaining unsettled with further showers.
- sleet above 500–600 m
Wind: south-west to west, gusts 30–50 km/h; 50–65 km/h along the coast.
Highs:
- around 8°C at the coast
- 3–10°C inland
- 1–3°C over the High Ardennes
Evening
Mostly cloudy with showers, especially inland.
- sleet from 300–400 m
- snow above 650 m
Wind: westerly, gusts 30–50 km/h.
Tonight
Unsettled with showers continuing.
- sleet above 450 m
- snow from 500–600 m
Lows:
- around 6°C at the coast
- 4–5°C inland
- 0–4°C in the High Ardennes
Tomorrow
Morning
Variable to mostly cloudy with showers, except across Hainaut and the southern parts of Namur and Belgian Luxembourg where it should remain largely dry.
- sleet above 400 m
- snow above 600 m
Wind: north-west to west, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Afternoon
Very changeable. Bright spells developing along the coast and in West Flanders, while showers persist inland.
- sleet from 300 m
- snow above 500 m
By evening, clearer spells spread across the south-western half of the country, though a few light showers remain elsewhere.
Wind: west to north-west, gusts 40–60 km/h.
Highs:
- around 7°C at the coast
- 3–7°C inland
- 0–2°C in the High Ardennes
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 16 February 2026
Belgium’s national thermal indicator will decline again over the coming days, reaching a minimum between -3 and -4 around Friday 20 February. This colder spell will be accompanied by daytime highs ranging from 0 to 6°C and overnight lows between -6 and 0°C.
A marked rebound is then expected.
For next weekend, the indicator could rise to +7 — a level higher than projected yesterday. In that scenario, maximum temperatures would range between 9 and 15°C, while minimum values would vary from 6 to 12°C, notably mild for the season.
Looking ahead to the end of the month, the trend suggests a gradual easing back toward seasonal norms, around 0 to -1 by 1 March. Highs would then range between 4 and 10°C, with lows between -2 and +4°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 16. Februar 2026
Eine relativ kühle und labile Luftströmung bestimmt weiterhin das Wetter in unseren Regionen und sorgt für wechselhafte Bedingungen mit Schauern.
Ab Dienstagabend zeichnet sich eine Stabilisierung ab, ausgelöst durch den Aufbau eines Hochdruckrückens. Dieser begünstigt zur Wochenmitte die Bildung eines Hochdruckkerns über Dänemark (≈1014 hPa) und bringt vorübergehend ruhigeres Wetter.
Gleichzeitig wird ein aktives Tiefdruckgebiet, das zunächst weiter südlich erwartet wurde, letztlich eine etwas nördlichere Zugbahn einschlagen als zuvor prognostiziert.
Nach seiner Position westlich der Britischen Inseln und Frankreichs (≈980 hPa) überquert es am Donnerstag Nordfrankreich (≈996 hPa) in Richtung Norditalien und erreicht am Freitag den Balkan.
Das zugehörige Niederschlagsgebiet erfasst unser Land am Donnerstag. Oberhalb von 300 bis 400 Metern fällt Schneeregen, ab 500 bis 600 Metern ist mit Schneefall zu rechnen.
Zum Wochenende hin dehnt sich ein kräftiges Hochdruckgebiet (1029 bis 1032 hPa) von Portugal über Deutschland bis zum Balkan aus.
In dieser Lage strömt zunächst noch relativ kühle Luft an der Nordwestflanke des Hochs vom Golf von Biskaya über Frankreich in die Benelux-Staaten, bevor eine deutliche Milderung einsetzt. Die Strömung bleibt jedoch zeitweise noch leicht störanfällig mit einzelnen Regenfällen.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 15 February 2026
Weather outlook based on the BMCB Multi-Model
(Operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
Tuesday 17 February
Rather cool conditions with variable to mostly cloudy skies and further showers.
Rain in lowland areas, sleet above 400–500 m and snow above 600–650 m.
Precipitation: 2–15 l/m² over 24 hours.
Moderate to fairly strong north-westerly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
During the following night, showers will persist across Limburg, Liège and northern Belgian Luxembourg, with sleet above 200 m and snow above 400 m.
Wednesday 18 February
Very cool and dry with sunny spells.
By evening, strengthening easterly winds with gusts of 45–65 km/h.
Overnight, a risk of snowfall across Hainaut, Namur and Belgian Luxembourg, especially near the French border.
Thursday 19 February
Very cool and generally sunny, though temporarily cloudier near the French border.
Quite strong easterly winds with gusts of 50–70 km/h. Dry conditions.
Friday 20 February
Very cool with sunny intervals at first, becoming increasingly overcast during the afternoon.
Light precipitation possible (0–2 l/m²).
Winds veering south to south-west, gusts 35–55 km/h.
Saturday 21 February
Turning milder with mostly cloudy to overcast skies and periods of rain.
1–10 l/m².
Fairly strong south to south-westerly winds with gusts 35–55 km/h.
Outlook (22 February – 1 March)
A sustained shift towards very mild and unsettled weather, with frequent spells of rain or showers.
Daily totals generally between 3 and 15 l/m².
Late February may again bring a risk of sleet above 600 m during more active frontal passages.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 14 February 2026
The final third of February and the opening days of March are expected to be shaped by a pronounced blocking pattern. A broad ridge of high pressure would extend from Iceland to the Canary Islands, while a low-pressure system remains established over eastern Europe.
Within this synoptic setup, the Benelux region would lie along the eastern flank of the high, exposed to an unstable and noticeably cooler north-westerly flow. Showery precipitation, fuelled by moisture from the North Sea, would move southeastwards across the region.
During the first third of March, numerical guidance suggests a gradual extension of high pressure from the Atlantic towards northern Scandinavia and Russia. At the same time, an active low-pressure zone would stretch from southern Iberia to the northern Balkans, crossing the Alpine region.
Such an evolution would favour the establishment of a Scandinavian air mass: still cool, yet more stable and drier, bringing calmer and progressively brighter conditions to Germany and the Benelux.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 February 2026
Week of 2–8 March: a return to calmer and drier conditions
A strengthening high-pressure system is expected to extend over a large part of Europe during this period. This pattern would favour stable, dry and significantly less unsettled weather, away from active frontal systems.
In this context, local morning mist or fog may develop, followed by gradual clearing during the day under the influence of sunshine. Overall, conditions would become more settled, providing favourable weather for outdoor activities.
Week of 9–15 March: likely continuation of calm weather, with increasing mildness?
The dominant scenario maintains high-pressure influence over Western Europe. Weather conditions would remain largely calm, although low-pressure systems may develop over the nearby Atlantic.
On the fringes of these systems, cloud cover could occasionally increase, without fundamentally altering the generally stable trend. In addition, the establishment of a southerly flow towards the end of the period would support a gradual rise in temperatures, bringing a milder and early spring-like feel.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)