As part of a new meteorological simulation exercise conducted for the experimental aircraft Climate Impulse ( www.climateimpulse.org ), which will undertake a virtual circumnavigation of the globe during the second half of March over several days, our operational resources will once again be temporarily mobilized.
Consequently, the forecast publications issued on the groups, pages, and websites of the Belgian Meteo Club Belge will be somewhat reduced during this period.
Forecasts for the next 42 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 15 March 2026
Precipitation (next 42 hours)
• North of the Scheldt: 0.5–4 L/m²
• Between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse valley: 0–4 L/m²
• South of the Sambre-Meuse valley: 1–5 L/m²
Today
Morning: generally sunny, though cloudy to very cloudy over Limburg and south of the Meuse.
Wind light and variable, gradually S to SW, gusts 5–20 km/h.
Afternoon: mostly sunny, with cumulus clouds developing over the Ardennes uplands.
Wind south-westerly, gusts 10–30 km/h, locally 30–45 km/h over both Flanders.
Maximum temperatures:
• Around 13°C at the coast
• 10–13°C inland
• 6–9°C in the High Ardennes
Evening: skies becoming increasingly cloudy from the west, with light rain reaching both Flanders.
Wind SW, gusts 25–45 km/h, but 10–25 km/h south of the Meuse.
Tonight: mostly cloudy to overcast, with patchy light rain south of the Sambre-Meuse valley, while conditions become more variable with clear spells elsewhere.
Wind W to SW, gusts 30–50 km/h.
Minimum temperatures:
• About 8°C at the coast
• 4–6°C inland
• +1 to +5°C south of the Sambre-Meuse valley
In valley bottoms, local frost remains possible (0 to –3°C).
Tomorrow
Morning: partly cloudy with sunny intervals, but often very cloudy across much of Wallonia.
Wind W/SW, gusts 25–45 km/h.
Afternoon: cloudy to variable skies with a few showers, but also sunny breaks.
Wind westerly, gusts 25–45 km/h.
Evening: variable to cloudy, with the last light showers over the eastern half of the country, while it becomes drier but still rather cloudy elsewhere.
****************
National Thermal Indicator
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 15 March 2026
Belgium’s national thermal indicator is currently rising and is expected to reach a peak between +4 and +5 from 17 to 19 March.
This would correspond to daytime temperatures ranging between 12 and 19°C, marking a noticeably milder spell across the country.
For the remainder of the forecast period, the indicator is expected to fall back to values between +2 and –2. Maximum temperatures would then range between 10 and 16°C on the milder days, while cooler days would see highs between 6 and 12°C.
Under these cooler conditions, light night frosts remain locally possible, with occasionally moderate frost in valley bottoms in the south-east of the country.
****************
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 15 March 2026
A high-pressure system of around 1024 hPa will move over south-western France on Monday, significantly stabilising the weakly disturbed maritime air currently present over our regions.
In the following days, this anticyclone will shift towards the Baltic States, strengthening to about 1033 hPa as it moves across Germany and Poland. This development will favour the establishment of a very dry and noticeably milder continental airflow over Belgium.
From Wednesday onward, the main high-pressure centre is expected to extend between Scotland and the Baltic Sea, with central pressures ranging between 1028 and 1032 hPa. This configuration will temporarily place our country in a north-easterly flow, bringing somewhat cooler air for a few days.
At the beginning of next week, the dry continental flow from east to north-east should persist, with temperatures generally close to seasonal averages.
*****************
Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 15 March 2026
Summary of the expected weather evolution in Belgium
based on the multimodel analysis of the Belgian Meteo Club Belge (BMCB)
(operational models and ensemble systems ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
Following a period dominated by very mild and dry conditions, the weather should remain stable for several days before a cooler and slightly more unsettled pattern gradually develops toward the end of the period.
Tuesday 17 March
Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
Very mild conditions. Skies will initially be very cloudy to overcast across the Campine region, eastern Flemish Brabant, Hesbaye and the Ardennes. Elsewhere, bright spells will occur and gradually extend eastward during the afternoon. Overnight, low stratus clouds or patches of fog may locally develop in the Campine and Ardennes.
Wednesday 18 March
Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
Very sunny with temperatures remaining well above seasonal averages.
Thursday 19 March
Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
Mostly sunny with mild conditions.
Friday 20 March
Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
Slightly less mild. Increasing cloud cover but still some sunny intervals, especially during the afternoon. Rather windy from the north to northeast with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Saturday 21 March
Precipitation (24h): 0 L/m²
Noticeably cooler but still fairly sunny. Northeasterly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Outlook
22 March: fairly cool and dry, easterly winds gusting 30–50 km/h
23 March: dry conditions
24 March: 0–1 L/m², little or no precipitation
25 March: 1–3 L/m², light precipitation possible
26 March: milder with 1–5 L/m²
27 March: less mild with 3–8 L/m²
28 March: cool with 3–8 L/m²
29 March: cool with 5–8 L/m² and occasional precipitation
*************
Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
ALL Maps
Update – 14 March 2026
Trend for early April
Projections in the middle troposphere suggest the development of a broad high-pressure system extending from the nearby Atlantic towards the Norwegian Sea and Iceland. At the same time, a low-pressure belt could stretch from Morocco to the Black Sea.
Under these conditions, our regions would lie within a northerly to north-easterly airflow, bringing generally dry but rather cool air.
Trend for the week of 6–13 April
The high-pressure system is expected to persist, extending from Greenland towards northern Scandinavia. Meanwhile, low-pressure activity would tend to concentrate west of the Bay of Biscay and especially over the Middle East.
For our regions, this pattern could lead to a weak continental airflow or even a barometric slack situation, with relatively dry continental air and temperatures close to seasonal averages.
**************
SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 March 2026
Week of 30 March to 5 April: potential improvement but risk of spring frost
The most likely scenario suggests a return of high-pressure conditions at the beginning of April. This could bring calm and generally dry weather across the country in the run-up to the Easter weekend.
Such a pattern would probably lead to marked daily temperature contrasts: cool to cold mornings under clear skies followed by pleasant and distinctly spring-like afternoons.
However, the risk of late spring frost will need to be monitored closely, as it could locally prove damaging to vegetation that is already actively developing.
Week of 6 to 12 April: more unsettled weather before a possible rise in temperatures
During the following week, weather conditions may become more changeable again under the influence of a disturbed Atlantic flow.
Passing frontal systems would bring rainfall along with milder air masses. On a countrywide scale, temperatures could gradually move back above seasonal averages.
***************
Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update – 14 March 2026
Global context: La Niña weakening, possible shift toward El Niño
Ocean–atmosphere indicators across the tropical Pacific show that the La Niña episode is gradually weakening. Multi-model projections suggest a transition toward neutral conditions in the coming months, with increasing chances of an El Niño episode developing by summer.
Such a transition could eventually influence large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and therefore affect temperature and precipitation regimes in several regions worldwide, including Europe.
April: a still variable start to spring
The westerly circulation is likely to remain fairly active across western Europe, leading to an alternation of disturbed spells and quieter periods under temporarily higher pressure.
Temperatures are expected to remain close to seasonal averages or slightly above, with an anomaly of about +0.5 to +1°C, which is relatively modest.
No dominant scenario currently emerges. In a marginal anticyclonic setting, the risk of late frost during clear nights remains possible.
Overall precipitation totals should remain near normal.
May: a more stable and rather mild pattern
Atlantic high-pressure systems may extend more frequently towards western Europe, favouring calmer and sunnier periods, occasionally interrupted by thunderstorms.
Temperatures would likely show a slight positive anomaly, around +0.5 to +1°C above normal, although this signal remains modest and indicates limited forecast confidence at this range.
Rainfall totals could become slightly below average.
June: a more summery, warm and thundery atmosphere
Early summer could be influenced by a recurring upper-level cold low over the Iberian Peninsula. This configuration would favour warm air advection towards our regions and frequent thunderstorm developments.
Although rainfall distribution would remain highly variable depending on storm activity, this setup could maintain a noticeable level of summer precipitation.
Temperatures are expected to be above normal, with a likely anomaly between +1 and +1.5°C.
Rainfall would largely depend on thunderstorms and may become locally above normal in the most affected areas.
**************
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)