Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 13 January 2026 | 7 AM
BMCB multi-model: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN
🌧 Rainfall – next 36 hours
Rainfall will be unevenly distributed across the country:
- North of the Scheldt: 3 to 7 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse: 2 to 6 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 0.5 to 3 l/m²
Today: mostly grey, with occasional hesitant bright spells
Morning
The sky will be largely overcast, with light rain at times.
However, brighter spells may break through over southern Namur and Belgian Luxembourg.
Wind: from the south, gusts of 15 to 35 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloud cover becomes more veiled, allowing for brief sunny intervals.
Nevertheless, low stratus clouds will remain widespread over the higher ground of Liège and Belgian Luxembourg, keeping skies largely overcast.
Wind: southerly, gusts 20 to 40 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 11°C along the coast, 9 to 11°C inland and 4 to 8°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Skies remain veiled, with passing clear spells, while light rain affects western Flanders.
Wind: southerly, gusts 20 to 40 km/h.
Night
Cloud cover thickens further, becoming very cloudy to overcast, with widespread rain.
Wind: south to south-west, gusts 25 to 40 km/h.
Minimum temperatures: about 6°C on the coast, 8 to 9°C inland and 2 to 8°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Tomorrow: damp and often misty
Morning
Skies remain very cloudy to overcast, with residual rain south of the Meuse and near the French border.
Wind: south-west, gusts 20 to 40 km/h, gradually turning north-west across Flanders, Antwerp and western Hainaut, with lighter gusts (15 to 20 km/h).
Afternoon
Along the coast, timid bright spells may develop, while elsewhere skies stay heavily clouded, with persistent rain over Limburg, both Brabants, Namur, Liège, Luxembourg province and eastern Hainaut.
Towards evening, fog patches will gradually form across Hainaut, both Brabants, Antwerp, Limburg and East Flanders.
Wind: north-west, gusts 10 to 15 km/h, though still south-west south of the Sambre–Meuse with peaks of 15 to 30 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: 6 to 8°C along the coast, 8 to 11°C inland and 5 to 7°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 13 January 2026 | 11 AM
Over the next three days, the national thermal index will remain within a phase of relatively mild winter conditions, fluctuating between +4 and +6. In this setting, daytime highs will range from 3 to 8°C across the Ardennes, while the lowland areas enjoy milder values between 8 and 13°C.
From 17 January onwards, however, a notable shift is expected. Temperatures will begin a gradual decline, pushing the thermal index into negative territory during the following week, with values fluctuating between -1 and -4. This will translate into more wintry daytime temperatures, ranging from -2 to +2°C in the Ardennes and from +3 to 7°C in the lowlands.
The nights will also turn colder once again: minimum temperatures will generally fall between -5 and -2°C in the Ardennes — locally even lower in valleys under clear skies and light winds — while the lowlands can expect values between -2 and +3°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 13 January 2026 | 12 PM
A particularly mild southerly airflow, originating from the Pyrenees and the Mediterranean Basin, continues to dominate weather conditions across France and our regions, maintaining a seasonably mild atmosphere.
A few rain-bearing disturbances will punctuate this pattern, though without excess. Rainfall totals will remain limited and generally light, insufficient to disrupt the overall calm nature of this period.
Over the course of the weekend, however, the large-scale atmospheric dynamics will begin to evolve. Low-pressure activity, currently located near Ireland (≈ 993 hPa), is expected to drift gradually towards the Bay of Biscay (≈ 1006 hPa). At the same time, a powerful continental high-pressure system, firmly anchored over Russia (1045 to 1047 hPa), will shift slightly westward. This configuration will slowly rotate the flow, first towards the southeast and then to the east, affecting northeastern France, Germany and our regions.
Within this setup, drier but noticeably cooler continental air will start advancing westwards. It is expected to reach our areas next week, bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms, and in some places slightly below average.
Outlook for the period 21–27 January
At longer range, forecast models suggest the establishment of a broad anticyclonic zone stretching between Scandinavia and Greenland. As a result, low-pressure systems would be forced to track from the Bay of Biscay towards the western Mediterranean.
Such a configuration would favour the persistence of a continental airflow, gradually turning colder across our regions. A zone of air-mass confrontation may also develop, leading to more unsettled conditions, primarily affecting France, while drier weather prevails further north.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 13 January 2026 – 1 PM
No TXT
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 13 January 2026
The latest ECMWF ensemble analyses, based on mid-tropospheric anomaly diagnostics, outline a highly structured and large-scale atmospheric pattern across Europe for late January and early February.
A vast anticyclonic system appears poised to establish itself from Greenland to western Russia, extending across Scandinavia. In contrast, a broad low-pressure area is expected to organise from France towards the Mediterranean basin, reaching as far as North Africa.
Caught between these two opposing centres of action, a continental north-easterly flow would gradually assert itself, advecting markedly colder air with a distinctly wintry character into our regions.
During the first decade of February, the ensemble guidance maintains high-pressure dominance over north-western Russia and north-eastern Scandinavia. At the same time, renewed cyclonic activity is projected to develop over the nearby Atlantic, moving towards the western fringes of the British Isles. This evolution would help sustain the cold continental easterly flow over our regions, while establishing a zone of air-mass confrontation, accompanied by disturbances mainly affecting the British Isles and western France.
In the second decade of February, a temporary weakening of the anticyclonic influence may occur over south-western Scandinavia and our regions, allowing the disturbances associated with this conflict zone to progress eastwards. This more unsettled phase could, however, be short-lived, as a renewed strengthening of high pressure from the south-west towards the North Sea would favour the return of a stable, dry north-easterly to easterly flow over our regions.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 31-12-25
Weather Trends – Mid to Late January
15 to 25 January: mild and unsettled conditions
This period is expected to be influenced by a west to south-westerly airflow, remaining fairly unsettled. Between 19 and 25 January, a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems could affect the region, bringing recurrent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary quieter intervals.
Within this pattern, temperatures are likely to rise slightly above seasonal averages, though without any pronounced anomalies. Overall, this would result in a generally mild and humid winter regime, driven by Atlantic influences.
26 January to 1 February: potentially calmer and more seasonal
At this range, forecast confidence remains low, and these trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Based on the current ensemble mean of the models, a gradual easing of conditions cannot be ruled out. Weather patterns could then move closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures near average and a changeable sky, but without any significant disturbances.
Such a configuration would be conducive to the formation of fog and low cloud, particularly across low-lying areas and valleys, due to stable conditions in the lower atmospheric layers.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)