Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 13 February 2026
Expected precipitation (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 2 to 8 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse valley: 1 to 7 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse valley: 4 to 8 l/m²
Today
Morning
Overcast and rainy.
Winds variable at 5 to 25 km/h, but south to southwest over the Ardennes high ground with gusts of 25 to 35 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloudy to overcast with some rain, mainly across central and northern areas.
Wind turning east to northeast, gusts 15 to 35 km/h. In Wallonia more variable, 10 to 25 km/h.
Maximum temperatures:
Around 7°C along the coast, 8 to 9°C inland, but only 5 to 7°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Remaining overcast with further local rainfall, heavier in the Gaume region.
East to northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 km/h, lighter (10 to 30 km/h) south of the Sambre–Meuse valley.
Tonight
Cloudy. Rain persisting in Gaume.
Above 200 metres, sleet or snow is expected, especially across southern Hainaut, Namur and Belgian Luxembourg.
Northeast winds with gusts of 25 to 45 km/h, locally 50 to 55 km/h along the coast.
Minimum temperatures:
Around 2°C at the coast, 0 to 1°C inland, and 0 to –3°C south of the Sambre–Meuse valley.
Tomorrow
Morning
Variable cloud with sunny intervals in West Flanders. Elsewhere mostly cloudy to overcast with light snowfall, particularly in eastern Liège province and southern Belgian Luxembourg.
North to northeast winds with gusts of 35 to 45 km/h.
Afternoon
Becoming sunnier across Flanders, western Hainaut, western Flemish and Walloon Brabant and Antwerp.
Elsewhere remaining mostly cloudy with light snow over the Ardennes relief.
North to northeast winds with gusts of 35 to 45 km/h.
Maximum temperatures:
Around 4°C at the coast, 3 to 5°C inland, and –1 to –3°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 13 February 2026
Belgium’s national thermal indicator continues to decline and is expected to reach a minimum between -4 and -5°C over the weekend.
Maximum temperatures will range from -2 to +4°C, while minimum values will generally vary between +1 and -6°C. Significantly colder conditions are likely in the eastern valleys, where temperatures may locally drop to between -7 and -13°C during the night from Saturday to Sunday.
Next week, and at least until 27 February, a slight recovery of the thermal indicator is anticipated. It should mostly fluctuate between -2 and +3°C, close to seasonal averages.
On the less mild days, maximum temperatures will range from 2 to 8°C, with minima between -4 and +3°C. During milder intervals, highs may reach 4 to 11°C, while lows are expected to remain between 1 and 7°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 13 February 2026
A contrasting synoptic pattern is setting up across Western Europe.
While a ridge of high pressure will extend on Saturday from Brittany towards southern Scandinavia, a 987 hPa low, currently located west of France, will move towards northern Corsica.
Between these two pressure systems, progressively colder air will drift from Denmark towards the Benelux, generally with limited disturbance and only weak instability.
An active frontal system will reach Ireland on Saturday afternoon before crossing the Benelux from west to east on Sunday.
Precipitation will mainly fall as rain, often preceded by sleet or snow depending on elevation.
This system is associated with a new low (991 hPa) expected to position itself over the North Sea on Monday. It will then steer less cold but unstable maritime air over our regions, bringing at times rather heavy showers.
Next week will remain dominated by a dynamic Atlantic regime, with several fairly active disturbances moving through, occasionally accompanied by strong winds. Towards the end of the week and into the following weekend, the arrival of cooler and unstable polar air could mark another shift in the weather pattern.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 13 February 2026
Weather outlook based on the BMCB Multimodel
(Operational models and ensembles ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
Sunday 15 February
Precipitation: 9–25 l/m²
Cold conditions. After some early bright spells in the northeast, a precipitation band will move eastwards across the country. Snow at first in many areas, turning to rain later in the day in western Flanders and western Hainaut.
Southerly winds strengthening with gusts of 45–65 km/h.
Overnight rain nationwide; initially snow above 400–500 m in the Ardennes.
Monday 16 February
4–15 l/m²
Rather cool. Variable to mostly cloudy with frequent showers, falling as sleet above 500–600 m.
Brisk westerly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Overnight showers in the northeast; snow above 650 m.
Tuesday 17 February
2–15 l/m²
Still fairly cool. Showery: rain in lowlands, sleet above 500 m, snow above 650 m.
North-westerly winds gusting 35–55 km/h.
Overnight renewed rain from the west, snow above 500 m.
Wednesday 18 February
3–15 l/m²
Mostly wet and rather cool.
Fresh south-westerly winds, gusts up to 60 km/h.
Thursday 19 February
4–40 l/m²
Milder and very unsettled. Periods of persistent, locally heavy rain, later turning showery.
Windy with gusts of 65–85 km/h.
Outlook to 27 February: Predominantly unsettled Atlantic pattern with repeated rainfall and recurrent risk of wintry precipitation over higher elevations.
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Trend of sea-level pressure anomalies across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Update – 12 February 2026
The final third of February and the opening days of March are expected to be characterised by the establishment of a broad anticyclone stretching from the Norwegian Sea towards Ireland, the Iberian Peninsula and as far south as the Sahara. At the same time, low-pressure systems would generally track across eastern Europe.
Within this synoptic setup, our regions would lie along the eastern flank of the high-pressure cell, exposed to an unstable north-westerly flow. Showery precipitation, fuelled by moisture from the North Sea, would extend across the Benelux towards central Europe.
During the first ten days of March, numerical guidance suggests a gradual northward expansion of high pressure from the Atlantic towards Scandinavia. This evolution would favour the onset of a Scandinavian airflow — colder, yet more stable and drier — spreading towards Germany, the Benelux and France.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 13 February 2026
Week of 2–8 March: a return to calmer and drier conditions
A strengthening high-pressure system is expected to extend over a large part of Europe during this period. This pattern would favour stable, dry and significantly less unsettled weather, away from active frontal systems.
In this context, local morning mist or fog may develop, followed by gradual clearing during the day under the influence of sunshine. Overall, conditions would become more settled, providing favourable weather for outdoor activities.
Week of 9–15 March: likely continuation of calm weather, with increasing mildness?
The dominant scenario maintains high-pressure influence over Western Europe. Weather conditions would remain largely calm, although low-pressure systems may develop over the nearby Atlantic.
On the fringes of these systems, cloud cover could occasionally increase, without fundamentally altering the generally stable trend. In addition, the establishment of a southerly flow towards the end of the period would support a gradual rise in temperatures, bringing a milder and early spring-like feel.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)