Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather – Update +36 h | 25 December 2025 – 8 AM
BMCB multimodels: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN
🌧️ Precipitation
No precipitation is expected over the next 36 hours.
Conditions will remain completely dry across the entire country, from the north of the Scheldt to the southernmost regions.
☀️ Today: a bright but cold Christmas Day
Morning
The day begins under generous sunshine, bathing most regions in a clear, wintry light. Only in the province of Luxembourg will clouds occasionally be more prominent.
An east to northeast wind will blow briskly, with gusts reaching 35 to 55 km/h, enhancing the feeling of cold.
Afternoon
The weather stays very sunny, with just a few passing clouds, mainly over the two Brabants and Hainaut.
The northeasterly wind persists, with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures will remain modest: around 2°C along the coast, 2 to 3°C inland, and –2 to +2°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
The sky will become largely clear, allowing for a calm and bright evening.
The northeasterly wind will still be noticeable, with gusts of 25 to 45 km/h, though lighter (15 to 25 km/h) in valleys south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Night
The night will be clear and cold, under a cloudless sky.
Winds turn northeast to east, with gusts of 20 to 40 km/h, easing in the valleys.
Minimum temperatures will fall to around –1°C at the coast, –4 to –2°C inland, –3 to –1°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line, and locally –4 to –8°C in sheltered valleys.
🌞 Tomorrow
Morning
Once again, bright sunshine will dominate.
The east to northeast wind remains noticeable, with gusts of 20 to 40 km/h, lighter in the valleys.
Afternoon
The sunny conditions continue in a distinctly wintry setting.
Winds will ease slightly, with gusts of 15 to 35 km/h.
Maximum temperatures will reach around 4°C along the coast, 4 to 6°C inland, and 2 to 4°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 25 December 2025 | 10 AM
The national thermal signal, which as expected reached a temporary low around –6 two days ago, is now beginning a gradual recovery. This rise will remain limited, however, with the index expected to peak at a still negative maximum close to –1 around 30 December.
In this context, daytime highs across the country will generally range between 0 and 6°C, while minimum temperatures will fluctuate between –2 and +4°C. This reflects a relative easing, without any genuine return to mild conditions.
This phase is likely to be short-lived. Current scenarios suggest a new temporary drop in the thermal index, which could fall again between –2 and –3 for several days. Daytime temperatures would then range from –2 to +5°C, with overnight lows between +2 and –5°C.
Looking further ahead, the BMCB multi-model guidance points to a return to more distinctly wintry conditions. From late December and through at least 8 January, the thermal index could once again fluctuate between –4 and –6. This would translate into maximum temperatures of +2 to –4°C, and night-time and early morning temperatures initially around 0 to –6°C, before dropping to –3 to –9°C toward the end of the period.
In the Ardennes valleys, where cold air tends to pool, even lower values cannot be ruled out, locally reinforcing the severity of this winter episode.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 25 December 2025 | 11 AM
The dry and fairly cold continental air currently affecting our regions will begin to gradually retreat from the weekend onwards. It will slowly be replaced by a less cold but more humid air mass, advected from the North Sea.
This air will be drawn southward along the eastern flank of a powerful anticyclone, with central pressure ranging between 1040 and 1048 hPa, positioned between Scotland and Iceland. As a result, a persistent north to north-westerly flow will become established.
Over the course of next week, this circulation will turn increasingly unstable, and at times disturbed. Around New Year’s Eve, and especially on New Year’s Day, the first showers are expected to reach our areas: rain or sleet across the lowlands, while the Ardennes may once again experience wintry precipitation, in the form of sleet or snow.
Within this north-westerly pattern, a distinctly wintery atmosphere is therefore likely to gradually reassert itself as the year draws to a close.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 25 December 2025 | 1 PM
Summary of the expected weather evolution
based on the BMCB multimodel (operational models and ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
The period from late December into the very beginning of January is expected to be decidedly wintry, marked by persistently low temperatures, frequent overnight frost, and an increasing risk of snowfall, particularly across the Ardennes highlands.
Saturday, 27 December
Cold conditions settle in under dry and very sunny weather.
Minimum temperatures will range from -5 to +1°C, with a significant risk of severe frost in the Ardennes valleys, where readings could drop to -11 to -6°C.
Daytime highs will remain modest, between -2 and +4°C.
During the following night, skies will become temporarily cloudier, with local fog formation south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Sunday, 28 December
Weather will remain dry and cold, under a variable cloud cover.
After some cloud patches, brighter spells will become more widespread in the afternoon, especially from the east.
Minima: -5 to +1°C – Maxima: -1 to +5°C.
Monday, 29 December
After a bright morning, cloud cover will increase from the north and central parts of the country.
During the night, light rain showers may affect coastal areas.
Cold conditions will intensify, with minima of -7 to -1°C, and locally -13 to -8°C in some Ardennes valleys.
Maximum temperatures will remain limited to -1 to +5°C.
Tuesday, 30 December
A cool and calm atmosphere will prevail.
Morning fog will be frequent south of the Sambre–Meuse line, followed by a mix of cloudy spells and clear intervals.
Minima: -2 to +4°C – Maxima: 0 to 6°C.
Fog may reform overnight, especially in southern areas.
Wednesday, 31 December
Cloud cover will increase over Flanders and the northern Ardennes.
Rain will fall across lowland areas, while sleet develops above 400 m, turning to snow above 600 m.
Overnight, light snowfall is expected from 400–500 m, mainly over the northern Ardennes.
Minima: -5 to +1°C – Maxima: -1 to +5°C.
Likely trend: 1–8 January
The start of the new year is expected to unfold under a persistently cold pattern, punctuated by frequent snowfall, especially in the Ardennes and at times extending into the lowlands.
- Thursday, 1 January: occasionally moderate precipitation, snow or sleet in the Ardennes, rain or sleet in lowland areas.
- Friday, 2 January: potentially more active episode, with moderate to locally heavy precipitation, frequent snowfall on higher ground.
- Saturday, 3 January: cold, with light to moderate snow in the Ardennes, snow or sleet in the lowlands.
- Sunday 4 to Tuesday 6 January: persistent cold, with occasional light snowfall, more frequent in the Ardennes.
- Wednesday 7 and Thursday 8 January: further intensification of the cold possible, with very low minimum temperatures, locally -14 to -15°C in Ardennes valleys, under light snowfall.
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Forecast anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
( charts )
Update – 25 December 2025 | 7 AM
The latest ensemble forecasts confirm a well-established trend for the coming week. A less cold, yet unsettled and occasionally unstable flow is expected to take hold over the North Sea and extend across our regions, maintaining generally changeable weather conditions.
Looking further ahead, the outlook becomes clearer — though increasingly blocked — for the following two to three weeks, roughly from 4 to 26 January. Model guidance suggests the development of a vast anticyclonic zone stretching from Greenland through Scandinavia to western Russia. At the same time, low-pressure activity would be largely confined farther south, from the Azores toward the western Mediterranean basin and France.
Such a configuration would once again favor the arrival of cold continental air masses, moving via southern Scandinavia and the Baltic region, with their origin in western Russia. This is a classic winter pattern, typically bringing drier but markedly colder conditions to our areas.
A significant shift would likely not occur until late January or early February, when a renewed increase in Atlantic low-pressure activity could allow milder, more unsettled air to spread toward western France and the British Isles, signalling a more dynamic atmospheric regime.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Weather outlook – 9 to 25 January 2026
9–18 January: winter uncertainty, possible milder and wetter influence from the west
Medium-range forecasts still point towards predominantly wintry conditions, driven by a dominant northerly flow bringing cold and unsettled weather.
Under such a pattern, snowfall at low elevations cannot be ruled out, particularly across northern and eastern regions.
At this lead time, however, uncertainty remains high, both regarding the severity of the cold and the strength of disturbances arriving from northern Europe.
At the same time, alternative scenarios suggest a gradual shift towards milder and wetter conditions, with recurring weather fronts and temperatures returning closer to seasonal averages, especially from the west.
19–25 January: distinctly milder and unsettled
For the period 19 to 25 January, model guidance increasingly supports the establishment of a disturbed west to south-westerly flow.
This setup would bring frequent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary calmer intervals.
Temperatures are expected to rise significantly, settling well above seasonal norms, signalling a sustained break from winter conditions.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)