Advertissement:
As part of a meteorological simulation exercise conducted for the experimental aircraft Climate Impulse (www.climateimpulse.org), which began a virtual round-the-world mission on Thursday 19 February and is expected to continue for several more days, our operational resources are temporarily dedicated to this project.
Consequently, forecast publications on the BMCB’s groups, pages and websites will be somewhat reduced during this period.
Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
Chart
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 21 February 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
Rainfall totals increase from north to south:
- North of the Scheldt: 7–19 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 11–20 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse axis: 13–36 l/m²
Today
Morning: overcast with rain, gradually easing over Flanders.
South-westerly to westerly winds with gusts of 25–45 km/h.
Afternoon: more variable skies across Flanders and Hainaut. Elsewhere mostly cloudy to overcast with rain, especially east of the Meuse.
South-westerly to westerly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Highs: around 11°C along the coast, 9–15°C inland, 5–8°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening: a new rain band moves in from the west.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 25–45 km/h.
Tonight: mostly cloudy to overcast. Little or no rain across western and central areas.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 25–45 km/h, 45–60 km/h along the coast.
Lows: around 11°C at the coast, 10–11°C inland, 5–11°C in the High Ardennes.
Tomorrow
Morning: further rain spreading from the west; the province of Luxembourg temporarily remaining dry.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Afternoon: widespread and at times persistent rain across all regions.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 35–55 km/h.
Highs: around 11°C at the coast, 10–14°C inland, 7–9°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
Chart
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 21 February 2026
The national thermal indicator will fluctuate between +5 and +9 in the coming days. This translates into maximum temperatures ranging from 7 to 13°C on mild days, and from 11 to 17°C during the mildest spells.
A pronounced peak of warmth is expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching between 13 and 20°C — remarkable values for the season.
After 27 February and at least until 6 March, the national indicator is expected to ease somewhat, fluctuating between +2 and +5. Maximum temperatures would gradually return to between 7 and 14°C. Despite this slight decrease, conditions would remain generally quite mild for the time of year.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 21 February 2026
A south-westerly to westerly flow, becoming progressively milder but at times distinctly unsettled — especially on Sunday — will govern the weather pattern over the coming days. Fueled by air masses originating from the Bay of Biscay and the nearby Atlantic, the atmosphere will remain frequently dynamic, bringing spells of rain and occasionally brisk winds.
Early next week, conditions will evolve under the influence of a high-pressure cell reaching 1028 hPa, centred on Monday over south-western France. As this high gradually shifts northeastwards towards Central Europe (around 1025 hPa) and subsequently eastern Europe (1028 hPa), it will temporarily usher in even milder and drier air from southern France.
This more settled interlude is likely to be short-lived: from Thursday onwards, new Atlantic disturbances accompanied by rain and wind are expected to affect our regions.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Chart
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 21 February 2026
A broad high-pressure system is expected to extend across northern and eastern parts of the European continent and persist at least until mid-March.
Under this synoptic pattern dominated by high pressure, our regions would mainly experience a continental airflow, leading to stable, generally dry conditions with temperatures relatively mild for the season.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 20 February 2026
Week of 9 to 15 March: gradual improvement?
Medium-range guidance remains divergent and forecast confidence is still limited. However, a gradual improvement appears possible.
A rebuilding ridge of high pressure over Western Europe could bring calmer and somewhat drier conditions to the country. That said, the stability of this pattern cannot yet be considered robust.
The Benelux would remain close to an active frontal corridor tracking mainly across the British Isles. Any southward shift of these depressions could once again expose the country to more unsettled and wetter conditions.
Week of 16 to 22 March: continuation of settled weather?
Although predictability remains modest, high pressure may continue to dominate large parts of Europe, supporting relatively calm conditions.
Nevertheless, disturbances are expected to move across the British Isles and Germany, with the potential for occasional spill-over into our region.
Temperatures may edge slightly higher but are likely to remain close to seasonal averages, without significant positive anomalies.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)