Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 12 January 2026 | 7 AM
(BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rain will become more widespread, with marked regional contrasts:
- North of the Scheldt: 2–6 mm
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 4–9 mm
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 5–21 mm
Today: a grey and damp atmosphere
Morning
The day begins under a heavily overcast sky, with scattered rain, locally still freezing at first, especially across Limburg, Liège, Namur and Belgian Luxembourg.
A moderate southerly wind will blow, with gusts of 15 to 35 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloud cover remains extensive, only briefly interrupted by rare brighter intervals.
The wind veers south to south-west, gusting 20 to 30 km/h.
Maximum temperatures reach around 10°C along the coast, 6 to 9°C inland, and 3 to 5°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Skies stay mostly overcast, with renewed rainfall, except possibly across both Flanders, where occasional clearings may occur.
The southerly to south-westerly wind remains brisk, with gusts up to 40 km/h.
Night
Rain persists mainly over southern Belgian Luxembourg, while elsewhere brief clear spells may develop.
The wind continues from the south to south-west, gusting 15 to 30 km/h.
Minimum temperatures settle near 7°C along the coast, 5 to 7°C inland, and 3 to 4°C south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Tomorrow
Morning
Further rain spreads across most regions, though Belgian Luxembourg and southern Namur are more likely to escape, with some sunny intervals.
Winds from the south will gust 15 to 35 km/h.
Afternoon
Brighter spells develop across Wallonia, while Flanders and the Ardennes remain cloudy to overcast.
Southerly winds strengthen, with gusts reaching 35 to 55 km/h.
The day’s highest temperatures, already reached in the morning, will be around 10°C at the coast, 7 to 11°C inland, and 3 to 6°C in the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 12 January 2026 | 11 AM
The national thermal curve continues its upward trend, settling over the coming days in clearly positive territory, with the index fluctuating between +2 and +6.
This will result in daytime temperatures generally ranging from 4 to 10°C, and on particularly mild days between 6 and 12°C.
However, this milder spell is expected to be short-lived. From next week onward, the thermal index is likely to return to negative values, remaining, at least until 25–26 January, within a range of –2 to –6.
Under these conditions, maximum temperatures will struggle to exceed 0 to 6°C, with a gradual downward trend potentially leading to local values between –4 and +3°C.
Minimum temperatures will initially range between –2 and +4°C, before dropping more sharply, reaching –7 to 0°C depending on the region.
A more distinctly wintry pattern therefore appears set to reassert itself as January progresses.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 12 January 2026 | 12 PM
A southerly airflow, originating from the Mediterranean basin, will dominate the weather pattern across the country, delivering seasonably mild conditions, occasionally interrupted by passing spells of rain.
On Wednesday, the passage of a rain-bearing disturbance will temporarily veer the flow towards the south-west. This transitional phase will be short-lived, however, as the circulation soon reverts to a more southerly direction, gradually stabilising and bringing calmer, largely dry conditions through to the end of the week.
By next weekend, an exceptionally strong anticyclone, with central pressures reaching 1050 to 1051 hPa, is expected to settle over western Russia. Along its south-western flank, it will advect a continental air mass towards our regions — less mild, yet remarkably stable and dry, originating from the northern Balkans.
This continental influence is forecast to persist into the early part of next week, maintaining a dry and settled weather regime, while temperatures gradually trend lower, ushering in a distinctly cooler atmospheric feel.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 12 January 2026 – 1 PM
Expected weather evolution
according to the BMCB multi-model
(operational models and ICON – AIFS – ECMWF ensembles)
Persistent mild conditions before a gradual shift toward winter
📅 Wednesday, 14 January
Under mild conditions for the time of year, rainfall will first affect the central parts of the country, before becoming more focused on the Ardennes.
During the following night, isolated breaks or brief clearer spells may develop.
Rather windy from the southwest, with gusts of 35 to 55 km/h.
- Precipitation: 5 to 19 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima 2 to 8°C | maxima 5 to 11°C
📅 Thursday, 15 January
Mild conditions persist beneath a very cloudy sky. In the east, a few sunny intervals may still occur before rain moves in from the west.
During the night, rainfall will become more widespread, followed by some clearer spells in western regions.
Quite windy from the south to southwest, with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h.
- Precipitation: 1 to 10 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima 1 to 7°C | maxima 4 to 10°C
📅 Friday, 16 January
The air remains unseasonably mild, but under a heavily overcast sky. Residual rainfall will mainly persist over the province of Luxembourg, spreading overnight to areas south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
- Precipitation: 0 to 15 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima 3 to 9°C | maxima 2 to 8°C
📅 Saturday, 17 January
A changeable sky with occasional brighter spells, interspersed with local light showers. The remarkable mildness remains dominant.
- Precipitation: 0 to 4 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima 1 to 7°C | maxima 6 to 12°C
📅 Sunday, 18 January
A new rain system will reach the country from the west, still in a mild atmosphere, but signalling a gradual change in weather pattern.
- Precipitation: 2 to 10 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima 1 to 7°C | maxima 3 to 9°C
🔎 Likely trend: gradual return to winter conditions
📅 Monday, 19 January
Temperatures return to seasonal values. Very light precipitation remains possible.
- Precipitation: 1 to 3 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -2 to +4°C | maxima 1 to 7°C
📅 Tuesday, 20 January
A more stable, often dry weather pattern sets in, with temperatures typical for the season.
- Precipitation: 0 to 2 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -2 to +4°C | maxima 0 to 6°C
📅 Wednesday, 21 January
Colder air gradually strengthens. Any precipitation that occurs will remain very limited.
- Precipitation: 1 to 2 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -5 to +1°C | maxima -2 to +4°C
📅 Thursday, 22 January
A cool to cold pattern becomes established. First snowflakes may appear over the Ardennes, sometimes mixed with sleet, while rain will dominate elsewhere.
- Precipitation: 4 to 5 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -4 to +2°C | maxima -1 to +5°C
📅 Friday, 23 January
Precipitation intensifies. In the Ardennes, moderate snowfall is possible, while other regions will experience sleet or cold rain.
- Precipitation: 10 to 15 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -4 to +2°C | maxima -1 to +5°C
📅 Saturday, 24 January
Conditions remain cool and often wet, with persistent precipitation.
- Precipitation: 10 to 15 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -4 to +2°C | maxima -1 to +5°C
📅 Sunday, 25 January
Cold conditions strengthen further. Light snowfall remains possible in the Ardennes, with sleet elsewhere.
- Precipitation: 2 to 4 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -5 to +1°C | maxima -3 to +3°C
📅 Monday, 26 January
A clearly wintery pattern sets in, with low temperatures and only limited precipitation, falling as snow over the Ardennes.
- Precipitation: 2 to 3 L/m²
- Temperatures: minima -7 to -1°C | maxima -4 to +2°C
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Forecast anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 12 January 2026
The latest analyses from the ECMWF ensembles, based on observations of anomalies in the mid-troposphere, outline a highly structured atmospheric pattern across Europe towards the end of January and into the early days of February.
A vast anticyclonic system is expected to establish itself from Greenland to western Russia, stretching across Scandinavia, while, in contrast, a broad low-pressure area would develop from France towards the Mediterranean Basin and the Maghreb.
Between these two opposing pressure systems, a continental north-easterly flow would gradually take hold, advecting markedly colder air into our regions, with a distinctly wintry character.
At longer range, the ensembles suggest a shift in this configuration: the northern anticyclone would drift towards Eastern and Central Europe, while a new anticyclonic system would rebuild between the Azores and the Iberian Peninsula, at the same time as depression activity intensifies once again to the south-west of Iceland.
Within this evolving setup, an atmospheric conflict zone, favourable to unsettled weather, could temporarily develop during the second decade of February, affecting the British Isles, northern France, and possibly our regions as well.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 31-12-25
Weather Trends – Mid to Late January
15 to 25 January: mild and unsettled conditions
This period is expected to be influenced by a west to south-westerly airflow, remaining fairly unsettled. Between 19 and 25 January, a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems could affect the region, bringing recurrent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary quieter intervals.
Within this pattern, temperatures are likely to rise slightly above seasonal averages, though without any pronounced anomalies. Overall, this would result in a generally mild and humid winter regime, driven by Atlantic influences.
26 January to 1 February: potentially calmer and more seasonal
At this range, forecast confidence remains low, and these trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Based on the current ensemble mean of the models, a gradual easing of conditions cannot be ruled out. Weather patterns could then move closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures near average and a changeable sky, but without any significant disturbances.
Such a configuration would be conducive to the formation of fog and low cloud, particularly across low-lying areas and valleys, due to stable conditions in the lower atmospheric layers.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)