Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 11 January 2026 | 8:00 AM
(BMCB multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME HD – ALADIN)
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rainfall will become progressively more widespread, with marked regional contrasts:
- North of the Scheldt: 4–7 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 5–9 L/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 5–14 L/m²
🌥 Today: a tense winter atmosphere
Morning
A predominantly overcast sky will set the tone, though occasional hesitant bright spells may still break through over Liège, western Flanders, and western Hainaut.
Wind: southerly, gusts 10–30 km/h.
Afternoon
Cloud cover thickens further, allowing only rare and fleeting clearings.
Wind: southerly, strengthening with gusts of 25–45 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 2°C along the coast, +1 to -1°C inland, and -2 to -4°C in the High Ardennes.
Evening
Skies turn fully overcast as rain spreads across both Flanders, the Antwerp region and western Hainaut.
Wind: southerly, gusts 30–50 km/h, locally up to 60 km/h in western Flanders and over the Ardennes uplands.
Night
A blanket of cloud remains in place with widespread rain, preceded in places by a significant risk of freezing rain, especially south of the Sambre–Meuse line.
Wind: southerly, gusts 25–45 km/h, locally 45–65 km/h in Flanders and over higher ground.
Minimum temperatures: around 2°C at the coast, -1 to 0°C inland, and -2 to -4°C south of the Sambre–Meuse.
🌦 Tomorrow
Morning
Skies remain very cloudy to overcast, with more persistent rain over the southern parts of the provinces of Namur and Luxembourg.
Wind: southerly, gusts 15–35 km/h.
Afternoon
Conditions turn fully overcast nationwide, with rain affecting all regions.
Wind: south to south-west, gusts 25–45 km/h.
Maximum temperatures (reached in the morning): around 9°C along the coast, 5–8°C inland, and 3–4°C in the High Ardennes.
****************
National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 11 January 2026 | 11 AM
After dipping to a notably low minimum of –7 over the past 24 hours, the national thermal index is now set for a swift and marked rebound. By Tuesday, 13 January, values of +5 to +6 are expected, signalling a clear softening of the air mass. In practical terms, this translates into daytime highs ranging from +6 to +12°C across Belgium.
Thereafter, temperatures are likely to follow a more variable pattern, with the index fluctuating between +2 and +5 through to 21 January. The mildest days may see maximum temperatures of 6 to 12°C, while cooler spells would limit highs to 3 to 9°C.
According to the BMCB multi-model guidance, a slight downturn is possible towards the end of the period. The thermal index could ease back to around 0 to +1, bringing daytime temperatures of 1 to 8°C and overnight minima between –2 and +5°C, restoring a more seasonally typical winter feel.
****************
General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps (6=>? days)
Update – 10 January 2026 | 2:00 PM
The Scandinavian cold air mass that has settled over our regions in recent days is now preparing to withdraw. From Monday onwards, it will gradually be pushed back northwards under the influence of a well-established southerly flow. This circulation will set up between, on the one hand, a strong anticyclonic ridge — with surface pressures ranging from 1025 to 1029 hPa, stretching from the heart of the Mediterranean Basin through Central Europe and up towards Scandinavia — and, on the other hand, a pair of active Atlantic depressions, with central pressures between 992 and 968 hPa, moving across the nearby and north-eastern Atlantic.
Ahead of the arrival of this significantly milder air, a transitional weather system will cross the country on Monday. It will bring precipitation, initially falling as snow or freezing rain, before rapidly turning to rain as the milder air advances.
The entire week ahead will be shaped by this southerly regime. The prevailing flow will repeatedly draw mild air from the western Mediterranean, keeping temperatures well above seasonal norms. From time to time, disturbances tracking northwards towards the British Isles and the North Sea will introduce spells of rain, without any lasting challenge to this generally mild and unsettled pattern.
*****************
Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update –
*************
Forecast anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
pdate – 11 January 2026
The latest analyses from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts, based on the assessment of mid-tropospheric anomaly patterns, outline a well-structured atmospheric scenario for late January and, in broader terms, for the first half of February.
A large anticyclonic system is expected to gradually establish itself over Scandinavia, increasingly asserting its influence across northern Europe.
At the same time, the depression initially active from south-western Europe down to the Maghreb would begin to retreat eastwards towards the eastern Mediterranean basin, while another low-pressure system would take shape over the western Atlantic, between eastern Newfoundland and southern Greenland.
This synoptic pattern would favour the establishment of a continental north-easterly to easterly flow, advecting rather cold and dry air masses into our regions — a configuration typical of continental winter regimes.
At a later stage, the Scandinavian anticyclone could shift south-eastwards, positioning itself closer to our area.
This would result in largely calm and often stagnant conditions, with a marked tendency for persistent haze and fog, classic signatures of a mature winter anticyclone.
*************
**************
SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 31-12-25
Weather Trends – Mid to Late January
15 to 25 January: mild and unsettled conditions
This period is expected to be influenced by a west to south-westerly airflow, remaining fairly unsettled. Between 19 and 25 January, a succession of Atlantic low-pressure systems could affect the region, bringing recurrent spells of rain, interspersed with temporary quieter intervals.
Within this pattern, temperatures are likely to rise slightly above seasonal averages, though without any pronounced anomalies. Overall, this would result in a generally mild and humid winter regime, driven by Atlantic influences.
26 January to 1 February: potentially calmer and more seasonal
At this range, forecast confidence remains low, and these trends should therefore be interpreted with caution.
Based on the current ensemble mean of the models, a gradual easing of conditions cannot be ruled out. Weather patterns could then move closer to seasonal norms, with temperatures near average and a changeable sky, but without any significant disturbances.
Such a configuration would be conducive to the formation of fog and low cloud, particularly across low-lying areas and valleys, due to stable conditions in the lower atmospheric layers.
***************
Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
**************
Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)