Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Belgium Weather – Monday 2 February 2026 (7 am)
Based on the BMCB multi-model output (ICON-D2, AROME-HD, ALADIN)
🌧 Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
- North of the Scheldt: 3–5 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 3–6 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse axis: 3–9 l/m²
Today
Morning: Mostly cloudy with some local bright spells.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 15–35 km/h
Afternoon: Brighter intervals, but cloudier over eastern Liège province and Belgian Luxembourg.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 20–30 km/h
🌡 Highs: around 8°C along the coast, 5–10°C inland, 3–4°C in the High Ardennes
Evening: Still some clear spells, but very cloudy south of the Sambre–Meuse axis.
🌬 Wind: easterly, gusts 25–45 km/h
Night: Very cloudy, with some light rain over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
🌬 Wind: easterly, gusts 20–40 km/h
🌡 Lows: around 2°C on the coast, 1–4°C inland, down to -1°C south of the Sambre–Meuse axis
Tomorrow
Morning: Rain gradually spreading to all regions.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 30–50 km/h
Afternoon: Last spells of rain in Limburg and near the French border; elsewhere mostly very cloudy.
🌬 Wind: south-easterly to easterly, gusts 25–45 km/h
🌡 Highs: around 5°C on the coast, 5–11°C inland, about 4°C in the High Ardennes
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 2 February 2026 | 09:00
Temperature forecasts for Belgium remain highly uncertain from 8 February onwards. The national thermal indicator, based on the BMCB multi-model and calculated from the average of the global models (GFS, ECMWF, AIFS) and their ensembles, continues to show strong volatility.
This is due to Belgium’s sensitive position at the boundary between cold continental air circulating to the north of the country and very mild air persisting over France.
In this unstable atmospheric setup, the latest model runs this morning have revised the thermal index upward towards the end of the forecast period.
This contrasts clearly with the scenarios suggested by the ensembles of the European ECMWF model, which point to a more moderate evolution.
In practical terms, the national thermal indicator would fluctuate overall between –1 and +5 °C over the next two weeks.
During the mildest phases, maximum temperatures could reach 5 to 12 °C, with minimum temperatures ranging from 1 to 8 °C.
Conversely, during cooler episodes, maximum temperatures are not expected to fall below 0 to 7 °C, while minimum temperatures would range between –2 and +4 °C.
Upcoming model runs will therefore need to be monitored closely to determine whether this trend is confirmed or whether a downward revision becomes necessary for the period between 8 and 16 February.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 01/02/26 | 11:00
Several Atlantic low-pressure systems, with central pressures ranging between 967 and 973 hPa, are expected to move in succession to the south-west of Ireland next week. Along their eastern flank, they will maintain a mild to very mild, but often unsettled to unstable flow, affecting large parts of south-western Europe.
One of these lows, with an anticipated central pressure between 982 and 979 hPa, is expected to move during the coming weekend and into early the following week towards the English Channel and northern France, before continuing its track towards central Europe, northern Italy and the Balkans.
This evolution is likely to bring frequent precipitation to our regions, together with a gradual change in the circulation pattern. Winds are expected to turn easterly, then north-easterly, allowing colder air from southern Scandinavia to be advected during the course of the following week.
Likely evolution towards the end of next week and the weekend of 14–15 February
Our regions would then lie right within a disturbed frontal conflict zone, between:
- milder air increasingly pushing northwards from the Bay of Biscay into northern France and southern England,
- and colder air persisting over the Benelux, the North Sea and Germany.
Such a setup is typically associated with sometimes heavy precipitation and persistently unsettled weather conditions.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 01/02/26 | 12:00
Weather outlook – Belgium
Based on the BMCB multi-model approach
(Operational models & ensembles ICON – AIFS – GFS – ECMWF)
🔹 Tuesday 3 February
Precipitation (24h): 3–13 l/m²
Rather cool and often damp with periods of rain or showers and little, if any, brightness.
During the second half of the night it will turn drier with some clear spells.
Moderate easterly to south-easterly winds, gusts 35–55 km/h.
🔹 Wednesday 4 February
Precipitation (24h): 0–1 l/m²
Very mild and generally sunny.
🔹 Thursday 5 February
Precipitation (24h): 0 l/m²
Mild and largely sunny.
Local fog possible overnight, mainly in the east of the country.
🔹 Friday 6 February
Precipitation (24h): 8–18 l/m²
Mild but very wet, with periods of persistent rain.
🔹 Saturday 7 February
Precipitation (24h): 1–5 l/m²
Very mild with rain or showers, but brighter spells developing in the south-west during the afternoon.
🔸 Likely trend
🔹 Sunday 8 February
Precipitation (24h): 1–8 l/m²
Very mild, variable to mostly cloudy with showers.
🔹 Monday 9 February
Precipitation (24h): 4–23 l/m²
Mild and very wet with frequent rain.
Risk of sleet above 550–650 m.
🔹 Tuesday 10 February
Precipitation (24h): 3–14 l/m²
Occasional precipitation: rain in lowland areas, sleet above 400–500 m and snow above 600 m.
🔹 Wednesday 11 February
Precipitation (24h): 3–8 l/m²
Turning cooler. Rain and sleet above 300 m, snow above 500 m.
🔹 Thursday 12 February
Precipitation (24h): 7–13 l/m²
Cool and wet. Rain in lowlands, sleet above 200 m and snow above 400 m.
🔹 Friday 13 February
Precipitation (24h): 10–15 l/m²
Rather cold. A mix of rain and sleet, snow from 200–300 m.
🔹 Saturday 14 February
Precipitation (24h): 15–21 l/m²
Rather cold with frequent snow and sleet.
🔹 Sunday 15 February
Precipitation (24h): 15–21 l/m²
Persistent wintery conditions with occasionally heavy snow and sleet.
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Trend of sea-level pressure anomalies across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Update – 01/02/26
During the second half of February and into early March, low-pressure systems are expected initially to continue tracking mainly from the Atlantic towards the southern Baltic region. Thereafter, these systems are more likely to become established over the nearby Atlantic and to the west of the British Isles.
Within this setup, the boundary between contrasting air masses — initially located close to or just north of our regions — is expected to shift gradually northwards. This would place us more frequently under the influence of milder air originating from the Bay of Biscay and France.
In this dynamic and frequently unsettled pattern, precipitation totals may become rather significant during the second half of February, with generally mild but unsettled conditions prevailing.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 30-1-26
Period from 14 to 22 February: unsettled, but temporarily rather cold
Depression activity is likely to remain dominant. Several frontal systems may continue to affect our weather, with temperatures initially close to or slightly below seasonal averages. Towards the end of the period, a modest temperature recovery cannot be ruled out.
Week from 23 February to 1 March: a return to calmer conditions
A shift towards a southerly flow appears likely, while low-pressure systems track further north towards the British Isles. As a result, frontal systems would mainly affect northern Europe, allowing high pressure to build in more effectively. Weather conditions should become calmer and drier, with milder temperatures, generally 2 to 3°C above the seasonal norm.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)