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As part of a meteorological simulation exercise conducted for the experimental aircraft Climate Impulse (www.climateimpulse.org), which began a virtual round-the-world mission on Thursday 19 February and is expected to continue for several more days, our operational resources are temporarily dedicated to this project.
Consequently, forecast publications on the BMCB’s groups, pages and websites will be somewhat reduced during this period.
Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
Chart
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 28 February 2026
Precipitation (next 36 hours)
Precipitation totals will remain generally limited, with the highest amounts across the northern part of the country:
- North of the Scheldt: 3 to 6 L/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre-Meuse axis: 0 to 3 L/m²
- South of the Sambre-Meuse axis: 0 to 2 L/m²
Today
Morning: cloudy to variable skies with sunny intervals, but also showers, mainly across Flanders.
Southerly to south-westerly winds with gusts of 55 to 75 km/h.
Afternoon: mostly cloudy, with some brighter spells over eastern Liège province and southern Belgian Luxembourg. Showers will mainly affect Flanders, Antwerp, Limburg, the Brabant provinces and western Hainaut.
Winds veering south-west to west with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 10°C along the coast, 11 to 12°C inland, and 8 to 11°C in the Ardennes.
Evening: last showers mainly over Flemish Brabant, Antwerp and Limburg, while clearer conditions develop elsewhere.
Winds becoming light and variable, with gusts of 5 to 25 km/h, locally 30 km/h along the coast.
Tonight: clear to slightly veiled skies, with fog patches forming in the Ardennes valleys.
Light and variable winds, locally calm over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
Minimum temperatures: around 4°C at the coast, 3 to 5°C inland, 1 to 3°C south of the Sambre-Meuse axis, and 0 to –5°C in valley locations.
Tomorrow
Morning: fairly sunny, with increasing cloud over the south-western half of the country.
Southerly winds with gusts of 15 to 35 km/h, lighter over southern Belgian Luxembourg.
Afternoon: a mix of sunny spells and cloud, with thicker cloud developing over Flanders and western Hainaut, where light rain will be possible, especially in West Flanders.
South to south-westerly winds with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 11°C at the coast, 12 to 15°C inland, and 9 to 11°C in the Ardennes.
Evening: clearer spells mainly south of the Sambre-Meuse axis, while skies remain mostly cloudy elsewhere, with a local risk of light precipitation.
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National Thermal Indicator
Chart
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 28 February 2026
The national thermal indicator is expected to fluctuate mostly between +2 and +6 over the coming days, reflecting the persistence of a sustainably mild air mass for the time of year.
In this context, maximum temperatures will frequently reach 13 to 20 °C during the mildest days. More generally, they will range between 7 and 14 °C when conditions become more variable and temporarily less mild.
Towards 7 March, a slight change in the trend is expected to emerge.
The thermal indicator would gradually return to values between +1 and +2. Maximum temperatures would then most often range between 8 and 15 °C, confirming that thermal conditions will remain slightly above seasonal averages, despite a relative easing of the mildness.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days over the Ocean and Europe
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 28 February 2026
A high-pressure cell with a central pressure of 1027 hPa, centred over southern Germany on Sunday, will stabilise and progressively dry the air mass across our regions. This will favour calm and predominantly stable weather conditions.
From Monday onwards, milder continental air will spread across the country. This air mass will be advected by a south to south-easterly flow along the western flank of a broad high-pressure system (1027 to 1028 hPa) extending from central Europe into the central Mediterranean basin. The air originates from the Alps and northern Italy.
By midweek, a new high-pressure cell is expected to develop over the North Sea, with an estimated central pressure of 1029 hPa. It will continue to supply relatively mild and dry continental air, this time mainly originating from eastern Germany and central Europe.
Towards the end of the week and into next weekend, this high-pressure system will strengthen further, reaching 1036 to 1042 hPa between eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. This evolution will gradually establish an easterly to north-easterly flow, remaining dry but transporting progressively cooler continental air from regions where temperatures are significantly lower.
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Forecast for the coming days
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Chart
Update 27-2-26
Showers to give way to markedly spring-like conditions next week
A low-pressure system will move from the North Sea towards Scandinavia on Saturday, bringing cooler air into our regions. The morning will be partly variable, but instability will increase during the afternoon with new showers, first across Flanders and later in most areas. Rainfall will remain more limited south of the Sambre-Meuse axis.
Temperatures will fall noticeably, with afternoon highs of 9 to 11°C in lowland areas and along the coast, and 6 to 9°C south of the Sambre-Meuse axis. South-westerly winds will be brisk, with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h, turning westerly across Flanders later in the day.
During the evening and overnight, skies will clear widely, allowing temperatures to drop to between 1 and 5°C. Light frost is expected in the Ardennes valleys, with minima of 0 to –4°C and local mist formation.
Sunday: fairly sunny and milder
The day will begin fairly sunny, before more variable cloud develops later with a slight risk of a shower, mainly near the coast. Southerly winds will remain noticeable with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h. Temperatures will rise, reaching 8°C in the Ardennes and locally up to 14°C in lowland areas.
Monday: clear return to mild and pleasant weather
A large high-pressure system extending from Central Europe to Libya will channel dry and significantly milder air from the Alps and south-eastern France towards our regions. Conditions will be sunny and very pleasant. Temperatures will reach 16 to 18°C in lowland areas and along the coast, and 11 to 16°C in the Ardennes. Southerly winds will remain light to moderate, with gusts of 25 to 35 km/h.
Tuesday: cloudier in the west
Remnants of a weak low over the North Sea may bring increased cloud and some rain to western and central areas, especially during the afternoon. Brighter conditions should persist longer over the Ardennes. Temperatures will range from 9 to 14°C in western and central areas, and 12 to 17°C across Limburg and the provinces of Liège, Namur and Luxembourg.
Wednesday: sunshine returns with spring-like warmth
As continental high pressure strengthens westward, conditions will quickly improve. Sunshine will become widespread and temperatures will reach spring-like values of 16 to 20°C, and 13 to 16°C over the higher Ardennes. Overnight, mist and local ground frost may develop, especially south of the Sambre-Meuse axis.
Outlook for late week and next weekend
High pressure is expected to persist, bringing dry, sunny and very mild conditions. Southerly to south-easterly winds will continue to draw warm and dry air from the Alps and northern Italy. Temperatures will remain unusually high for the season, frequently reaching 18 to 20°C in lowland areas.
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 28 February 2026
Likely trend for the second half of March
A large high-pressure system is expected to establish itself over Western and Central Europe, bringing predominantly calm, dry, and relatively mild conditions for the time of year.
Subsequently, this high-pressure area should shift westward, extending from the Norwegian Sea across the North Sea to the Bay of Biscay. This pattern would maintain stable, dry, and generally pleasant weather across Western Europe, with limited frontal activity.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 27 February 2026
Week of 16–22 March: continued dry conditions, slightly cooler
The prevailing high-pressure system is expected to persist, maintaining calm and dry weather across the country. However, a gradual shift to a northerly airflow may lead to a slight decrease in temperatures. Even so, values are likely to remain near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Under these stable conditions, marked daily temperature ranges are expected, with cool mornings followed by milder afternoons, a typical feature of March weather.
Week of 23–29 March: possibly more unsettled towards the end of the month
Forecast confidence decreases at this range. The dominant scenario still supports continued high-pressure influence, resulting in largely dry and stable conditions.
However, alternative scenarios suggest a weakening of the high-pressure system, allowing Atlantic disturbances to return towards the end of the month, bringing temporarily more unsettled weather.
In all cases, temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals, confirming an already well-established spring-like trend.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)