Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(BMCB Multimodel: ICOND2 – AROME-HD – ALADIN)
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Weather Update – 20 February 2026
Expected rainfall (next 36 hours)
Rainfall totals will generally remain modest, but with a clear increase towards southern areas:
- North of the Scheldt: 3–6 l/m²
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse corridor: 2–7 l/m²
- South of the Sambre–Meuse corridor: 3–14 l/m²
Today
This morning: Mostly very cloudy to overcast, with a few light showers still affecting the Ardennes.
South-westerly winds, light to moderate, with gusts of 10–25 km/h.
This afternoon: Remaining very cloudy to overcast. Locally light to moderate rain, mainly across Flanders.
South-westerly winds strengthening, with gusts of 25–35 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 10°C along the coast, 5 to 11°C inland, but only 3 to 4°C over the High Ardennes.
This evening: Rain becoming more widespread, while western areas may see more variable skies with showers and some clear spells.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 35–50 km/h.
Overnight: A few residual showers, mainly over the Liège area, while clearer intervals develop from central to western regions.
Winds veering south-westerly to westerly, gusting 40–60 km/h.
Minimum temperatures: around 9°C along the coast, 7 to 9°C inland, and 1 to 6°C over the High Ardennes.
Tomorrow
Morning: Cloud increasing to overcast with new spells of rain, except across Antwerp, Limburg and the north-east of the Liège province.
South-westerly winds with gusts of 30–45 km/h.
Afternoon: Some rain lingering over Limburg and the Liège region. Elsewhere, skies remain very cloudy to cloudy with a few local brighter intervals. Further rain or showers are expected to move in from the west during the evening.
South-westerly winds, gusting 30–50 km/h.
Maximum temperatures: around 11°C along the coast, 9 to 14°C inland, and 6 to 8°C over the High Ardennes.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – 20 February 2026
The national thermal indicator is entering a marked upward phase.
Between 21 and 26 February, it is expected to fluctuate between +6 and +9, signalling a clear mild spell across the country. Maximum temperatures will generally range from 8 to 14°C, with a temporary peak forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday, when values could reach 12 to 19°C depending on the region.
A change in trend is then likely.
From 28 February to 3 March, the indicator is projected to ease back to +2 to +4. Daytime temperatures would return to a range of 7 to 14°C.
Subsequently, a further decline cannot be ruled out: the index could move towards -1 to +1, corresponding to seasonal norms. Highs would then range between 6 and 11°C, while lows would fluctuate from -2 to +5°C.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – 19 February 2026
A south-westerly to westerly flow, becoming progressively milder but at times distinctly unsettled — especially on Sunday — will govern the weather pattern over the coming days. Fueled by air masses originating from the Bay of Biscay and the nearby Atlantic, the atmosphere will remain frequently dynamic, bringing spells of rain and occasionally brisk winds.
Early next week, conditions will evolve under the influence of a high-pressure cell reaching 1028 hPa, centred on Monday over south-western France. As this high gradually shifts northeastwards towards Central Europe (around 1025 hPa) and subsequently eastern Europe (1028 hPa), it will temporarily usher in even milder and drier air from southern France.
This more settled interlude is likely to be short-lived: from Thursday onwards, new Atlantic disturbances accompanied by rain and wind are expected to affect our regions.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update –
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Trend of 500 hPa anomalies (around 5500m) across Europe and the Atlantic Ocean
Maps
Update – 17 February 2026
The closing days of February and the beginning of March are expected to be shaped by a well-defined synoptic pattern across the North Atlantic and Western Europe. A ridge of high pressure would extend from the Azores towards the Mediterranean Basin, while an elongated low-pressure corridor would stretch from Greenland across Scotland to the central Baltic region.
In this configuration, our regions would remain under a prevailing west to south-westerly flow. This maritime airstream would maintain relatively mild temperatures for the time of year, accompanied by unsettled conditions with passing frontal systems and intermittent rainfall.
During the first ten days of March, numerical guidance increasingly converges towards the development of a broad, weak low-pressure area covering the nearby Atlantic and Western Europe. The flow would gradually veer from south-west to south-east, keeping temperatures on the mild side but within a significantly drier air mass, allowing for more stable and occasionally drier intervals.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update – 20 February 2026
Week of 9 to 15 March: gradual improvement?
Medium-range guidance remains divergent and forecast confidence is still limited. However, a gradual improvement appears possible.
A rebuilding ridge of high pressure over Western Europe could bring calmer and somewhat drier conditions to the country. That said, the stability of this pattern cannot yet be considered robust.
The Benelux would remain close to an active frontal corridor tracking mainly across the British Isles. Any southward shift of these depressions could once again expose the country to more unsettled and wetter conditions.
Week of 16 to 22 March: continuation of settled weather?
Although predictability remains modest, high pressure may continue to dominate large parts of Europe, supporting relatively calm conditions.
Nevertheless, disturbances are expected to move across the British Isles and Germany, with the potential for occasional spill-over into our region.
Temperatures may edge slightly higher but are likely to remain close to seasonal averages, without significant positive anomalies.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 11-2-26
March: slightly drier, more often under high pressure influence
Temperatures:
The most likely scenario points to values near or slightly above the seasonal average. The projected anomaly is around +0.7°C, with fairly good confidence. Short-lived cooler spells remain possible.
Precipitation:
No clear nationwide signal. Alternating unsettled and quieter phases may produce marked regional contrasts. The expected anomaly is around -5%, but with low confidence.
General pattern:
The circulation remains fairly mobile, with a low-pressure axis still extending from the Atlantic towards Spain, gradually weakening. This may evolve into a typical late-winter/early-spring regime, with rapid shifts between mild westerly/southwesterly flows and cooler incursions.
April: broadly seasonal
Temperatures:
Close to average or slightly above, depending on the region. The anomaly is estimated at +0.6°C, with fairly good confidence — a moderate deviation close to normal. Cold, occasionally frosty nights remain possible during calm high-pressure periods.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier tendency during anticyclonic phases (-7%), though confidence is limited.
General pattern:
The Benelux is often positioned between low-pressure systems over southern Europe and the Mediterranean and more persistent high pressure over eastern Europe.
May: variable, without significant anomaly
Temperatures:
Near-average values, around +0.5°C (not statistically significant). Under clear skies and northerly high-pressure flow, cool or locally frosty nights remain possible, despite generally mild daytime conditions. Confidence is limited.
Precipitation:
A slightly drier signal (around -10%), but with very large scenario spread. Typical spring showers, sometimes thundery, cannot be ruled out.
General pattern:
The Atlantic high may at times promote northerly flows, favouring cooler nights and reduced precipitation.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)