Forecasts for the next 36 hours
(chart)
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
WEATHER UPDATE – Thursday 29 January 2026 – 7 a.m.
(BMCB multimodel analysis: ICON-D2 / AROME-HD / ALADIN)
The next 36 hours will be generally calm, but under a mostly cloudy sky, with light and unevenly distributed precipitation.
🌧 Expected rainfall (36 h)
- North of the Scheldt: 0.5–1 mm
- Between the Scheldt and the Sambre–Meuse axis: 0.5–2 mm
- South of the Sambre–Meuse: 0.5–3 mm
Today
- Morning: very cloudy, with local low stratus or fog south of the Sambre–Meuse line. A few very light snowflakes are still possible over northern Antwerp, Limburg and eastern Liège.
💨 Wind: variable to NE, 5–20 km/h. - Afternoon: cloudy to overcast, though a few brighter spells may develop in the south-west.
🌡 Highs: around 3 °C on the coast, 3–6 °C inland, 0–2 °C in the High Ardennes. - Evening & night: more breaks in the cloud, especially over Liège and Belgian Luxembourg. Local fog patches, mainly in Limburg.
🌡 Lows: from +2 °C near the coast down to -6 °C in valley bottoms.
Tomorrow
- Morning: largely sunny, though cloudier west of Brussels and over southern Namur and Luxembourg.
- Afternoon: cloud thickening everywhere, with rain or sleet, mainly affecting eastern Hainaut, Namur and Luxembourg.
💨 Wind: SE, gusts 25–45 km/h.
Overall: a grey and chilly spell, followed tomorrow by a wetter and windier phase, with locally wintry precipitation inland.
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National Thermal Indicator
(Chart)
MULTIMODEL BMCB
(These forecasts are generally updated daily)
Update – Thursday 29 January 2026 | 9 am
Thermal contrasts are set to increase markedly across Belgium over the coming days.
Within the next 24 hours, the national thermal index will edge closer to –1, reflecting still variable conditions, with daytime highs between 0 and 6 °C and night-time lows ranging from –6 to +2 °C.
From tomorrow, Friday, a temporary mild spell will take hold. The thermal index will then fluctuate between 0 and +5, indicating often very mild conditions for the time of year. On the mildest days, maximum temperatures will reach 6 to 13 °C, with minimum values of 2 to 8 °C. During less favourable phases, daytime highs will be limited to 2 to 8 °C, while night-time lows will range from –2 to +5 °C.
A more pronounced shift in the weather pattern is expected from 9 February onwards. As anticipated for more than a week by anomalies in the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble forecasts, the national thermal index is forecast to drop back into negative territory, between –1 and –3, and to remain there at least until 12 February, the current end of the forecast period.
This cooling trend would result in daytime temperatures generally between –1 and +5 °C, with minimum temperatures ranging from +3 down to –5 °C, bringing a distinctly more wintry feel to the weather.
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General Weather Evolution for the Next Days
Europe: Analysis & Forecast maps
UPDATE – Thursday 29 January 2026 | 11 a.m.
Over the coming days, a succession of low-pressure systems is expected to affect the area between the nearby Atlantic, the British Isles and the Bay of Biscay.
In combination with a strong anticyclone (1030–1038 hPa) firmly anchored over northeastern Scandinavia, this pattern will maintain a southerly to south-easterly flow across our regions, mild to very mild, but occasionally unsettled.
This setup is likely to persist until early next week.
From midweek onwards, the low-pressure circulation will gradually shift from the Bay of Biscay towards France and then northern Italy. This evolution will cause winds over our regions to veer east, later north-east, allowing the gradual arrival of less mild continental air, while conditions remain intermittently disturbed.
Outlook for the end of the week and the following weekend
Low-pressure systems will continue to track from the Atlantic towards France and the western Mediterranean basin. At the same time, a continental easterly flow will become firmly established across our areas, turning noticeably cooler.
Some precipitation will remain possible, with wet snow developing over the higher ground of the Ardennes.
Longer-term outlook
As already indicated in previous analyses, the period from 9 to 13 February is trending towards markedly colder conditions, under the influence of a continental east to north-east flow. This will advect air masses from northern Germany and Poland, regions that have been experiencing persistent winter conditions for several weeks.
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Forecast for the coming days
(Chart)
Multimodel BMCB ( OPERATIONAL + ENSEMBLES ICON-GFS-ECMWF-AIFS-GCGFS )
Forecast of the range of temperatures, precipitations + general type of weather in Belgium
(These forecasts are usually updated daily)
Update – 29 January 2026 at 1:00 pm
Analysis based on the BMCB multi-model (operational models and ensembles ICON, AIFS, ECMWF)
The coming days are expected to be generally mild and often unsettled, before a possible gradual cooling at the very start of the second decade of February, with a potential return of snow to lower elevations.
From Saturday 31 January to Wednesday 4 February: mild, cloudy with sunny spells
Saturday 31 January
Very mild conditions under often cloudy, occasionally variable skies, with some temporary bright spells. Precipitation will remain light and local.
Sunday 1 February
Mild weather continues in a changeable atmosphere. At times, more active showers will move across the region during the day.
Monday 2 February
A mild and often overcast day, punctuated by a few showers. Sunny intervals may develop in the afternoon, before more widespread rain returns during the following night.
An east to south-easterly wind will strengthen, with gusts reaching 30 to 50 km/h.
Tuesday 3 February
Still fairly mild, under variable to cloudy skies. Fine sunny spells are expected in the afternoon.
East to south-easterly winds at times brisk, with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h.
Wednesday 4 February
A relative lull: mild and brighter conditions, with wide sunny intervals and very little precipitation.
Likely trend from Thursday 5 February: turning cooler
From Thursday onwards, the BMCB model suggests a gradual shift towards cooler conditions, accompanied by a progressive lowering of the rain–snow limit.
Thursday 5 February
Light, local precipitation. Sleet may appear above 500 m.
Friday 6 and Saturday 7 February
Occasionally unsettled. Rain in lowlands, sleet possible from around 500 m.
Sunday 8 February
A few scattered precipitation areas, falling as rain in lowlands and sleet above 500 m.
Monday 9 February
Precipitation may become more frequent. Rain in lowlands, sleet around 300–400 m, with more settled snow above 600 m.
Tuesday 10 February
More marked cooling. Rain and sleet possible from 100–200 m, with snow above 400 m.
Wednesday 11 February
Cool and unstable. Alternating rain and sleet between 100 and 200 m, snow above 300 to 400 m.
Thursday 12 February
The weather takes on a more wintry character. Temperatures favour the development of occasionally snowy precipitation.
In lowland areas this will most often fall as sleet, while snow is more likely to settle above 300 metres.
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Outlook anomalies at 500 hPa
(mid-troposphere = 5,000–6,000 m altitude)
Update – 28 Jan 26 | 4 pm
A cooler spell becomes possible around February 10th, but not before, according to the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.
Until then, conditions are expected to remain occasionally unsettled, but generally mild to very mild.
For the first half of February, two scenarios are emerging:
- a chaotic wintry setup (rain, snow and thawing phases),
- or a well-structured and more pronounced winter spell.
The strengthening of the Greenland high, now supported by GEFS, adds credibility to the colder scenario, although caution remains warranted.
In any case, this would represent the last winter opportunity before mid-month, short-lived, followed by a return to near-average conditions around the 20th, and then drier and markedly milder weather heading into March.
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SOURCE: METEOCONSULT
BENELUX:
Weather Outlook for 3-4 weeks
Update 23-1-26
Period from 7 to 15 February: a possible return to seasonal conditions
As the Atlantic storm track gradually slows, weather conditions may begin to settle. Fewer disturbances would affect the region, allowing for more frequent and sometimes prolonged sunny intervals.
A strengthening influence of high pressure over northeastern Europe would favour more stable and drier conditions, with temperatures returning closer to seasonal norms. A calm, seasonably cool winter pattern may take hold.
Week from 16 to 22 February: a more wintry atmosphere returning?
These longer-range signals should be interpreted with caution, yet they hint at a potential re-establishment of more distinctly wintry conditions. Dry cold air could once again dominate, often accompanied by typical low-level phenomena such as persistent fog, extensive low cloud cover and pronounced temperature inversions.
A subdued but tangible winter atmosphere could then settle across the region.
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Weather Outlook for 3 months
Update 13-12-25 – 3:00 PM
January 2026: a wintry spell before milder conditions return
January 2026 is expected to open with a distinctly wintry phase, followed by a clear and lasting return to milder conditions during the second half of the month.
The nationwide temperature anomaly is estimated at +0.7°C, pointing to an overall mild month despite a cold start.
Early January could bring low temperatures and a risk of snowfall reaching lowland areas.
From mid-January onwards, Atlantic influences are likely to dominate, bringing temperatures well above seasonal averages.
In terms of precipitation, a slight surplus (+5%) is anticipated. Weather systems would be fairly frequent at the beginning of the month under a northerly flow, before shifting to a westerly to south-westerly Atlantic regime from mid-month.
As a result, January could become the wettest month of the 2025-2026 winter.
February 2026: slightly drier and still mild
February is expected to remain generally mild, with a temperature surplus close to +1°C.
Weather conditions are likely to be contrasting, with cold mornings followed by milder and often sunny afternoons, as high-pressure systems settle more frequently over the region.
Precipitation totals would be slightly below average (-10%), with less active weather systems due to the influence of persistent high pressure over continental Europe.
March 2026: finally a seasonal month?
March could finally deliver near-average seasonal conditions.
Temperatures are expected to fluctuate around climatological norms, with alternating cooler periods and milder, more unsettled phases, typical of early spring.
Precipitation should be close to average overall, though locally below normal, under the possible influence of high-pressure systems over northern Europe.
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Update to BMCB Multimodel – since 1 October 2025
from ICON (replace location left above )
from ECMWF (replace location left above)